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Published by: Intelace Research
Published: Oct. 1, 2009 - 118 Pages
Table of Contents
- 1. Macroeconomic overview
- Slide 1: Executive summary
- Slide 2: Poland - General overview
- Slide 3: Key macroeconomic indicators, 2003-2009H1
- Slide 4: Foreign trade statistics, C/A balance, FDIs, 2003-2009H1
- Slide 5: Warsaw Stock Exchange - Turnover, Market cap and indexes, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 6: Unemployment and wages, 2003-2009H1
- Slide 7: Disposable income in households and income distribution, 2003-2008
- Slide 8: Consumer confidence Index evolution, 2007-8/2009
- 2. Banking market
- 2.1. Banking market - General trends
- Slide 9: CEE banking markets: Size vs. growth matrix, 2006-2008
- Slide 10: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2008
- Slide 11: Structure of the Polish Banking System, 2009H1
- Slide 12: Polish Banking System ERA analysis, 1989-2009
- Slide 13: Evolution of banking assets by ownership, 1993-2009H1
- Slide 14: Top 12 foreign investors on the Polish banking market, 2009H1
- Slide 15: Banking assets evolution (LCU, EUR), 2003-2009H1
- Slide 16: Banking assets evolution (in EUR) by group of banks, 2003-2009H1
- Slide 17: Top 12 commercial banks, market shares, ownership, 2009H1
- Slide 18: Concentration of the banking market (Assets, Branches, ATMs, HH Index), 2008/2009H1
- Slide 19: Deposits by customer segment evolution, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 20: Loans by customer segment evolution, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 21: Foreign funding evolution, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 22: Non-performing loans evolution and ratios by type of customer, 2005-2009H1
- 2.2. Banking market - Regulatory overview
- Slide 23: Regulatory overview: Regulatory bodies on the Polish banking market
- Slide 24: BFG - Deposit Insurance Fund
- Slide 25: BIK - Credit information Office
- Slide 26: Central Bank interest rates and mandatory reserve policy, 2002-2009H1
- Slide 27: WIBOR rates, Yield curves, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 28: Basel II/CRD implementation status
- Slide 29: FX-denominated mortgage - regulatory changes
- 2.3. Banking market - Banking Infrastructure
- Slide 30: Bank outlets by types of banks, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 31: Bank outlets - Development plans of key banks, 2009+
- Slide 32: Employment in commercial banks sector, bank assets per employee evolution, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 33: Direct employee costs evolution, 2005-2008
- Slide 34: ATM number and transaction value evolution 2005-2009H1, ATM players, 2008
- Slide 35: POS number and transaction value evolution 2005-2009H1, POS players, 2007
- 3. Retail banking
- Slide 36: Current account penetration in Poland vs. EU, EUROBAROMETER 2005/2007
- Slide 37: Retail banking clients by segment - pyramid (mass market, affluent, personal and private banking), 2008
- Slide 38: New retail clients at top banks, 2005-2008, Young population evolution up to 2020
- Slide 39: Households deposits by sub-segments and cash evolution, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 40: Households loans by sub-segments evolution, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 41: TOP banks serving households sector, market shares, 2009H1
- Slide 42: Deposits of private individuals, structure by currency, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 43: Deposits of private individuals, structure by maturity, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 44: Investment funds assets evolution, domestic and foreign funds, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 45: Investment funds market shares - Top 10 players, 2008
- Slide 46: Personal Financial Assets (PFA) structure and evolution, 2006-2009H1
- Slide 47: Loans to private individuals by type evolution, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 48: Mortgage to private individuals by currency evolution, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 49: Installment loans market, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 50: Car loans market, 2005-2008
- Slide 51: Financial intermediaries and their segmentation, 2008
- Slide 52: Major intermediaries by value of loans sold, 2008
- Slide 53: Value and number of loans and investment funds sold by major intermediaries, 2008
- Slide 54: Specialized/exclusive loan distribution networks, 2008
- Slide 55: Perspectives for financial intermediaries
- Slide 56: Use of direct channels by cash loan providers, 2009
- Slide 57: Internet and PC penetration in Polish households and in corporate sector, shopping online, 2008
- Slide 58: Current accounts at major banks, internet access penetration, 2008
- Slide 59: Online Banking - mBank case
- Slide 60: Online Banking - new entrants: ING and Citibank and perspectives for standalone internet projects
- Slide 61: Bill payments market structure, 2008
- 3.1. Payment cards
- Slide 62: Cards issued by card type, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 63: Card transactions by channel, share of cash transactions, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 64: Credit card transactions , values, volumes, per card evolution, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 65: Top players in credit cards business, co-branding partners, 2008
- 4. Corporate banking
- Slide 66: Corporate subjects, number and revenues, 2007
- Slide 67: Corporate deposits and loans evolution, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 68: Top players on the corporate banking market, 2009H1
- Slide 69: Brokerage business, top players, 2004-2009H1
- Slide 70: Leasing market, structure by industry, top players, 2004-2008
- Slide 71: Factoring market, 2004-2008
- Slide 72: Non-treasury debt securities market, 2004-2008
- 5. Banks profitability
- Slide 73: Average retail and corporate banking rates offered and implied margins evolution, 2006-7/2009
- Slide 74: Commercial banks profitability tree - market averages evolution, 2006-2009H1
- Slide 75: Commercial banks revenue costs and profits composition, 2009H1
- Slide 76: Top 5 commercial banks profitability tree - peers comparison, 2009H1
- Slide 77: Segment reporting (1/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2009H1
- Slide 78: Segment reporting (2/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2009H1
- 6. Banks valuation and M&A activity
- Slide 79: Strategic control map for major listed banks in Poland, 2009H1
- Slide 80: Market multiples for major listed banks in Poland, 8/2009
- Slide 81: Efficiency of top banks in Poland - Cost to income, Assets/Personnel/Branches benchmarks, 2009H1
- Slide 82: Share price performance on the stock market for key listed banks in Poland, 01-08/2009
- Slide 83: Recent acquisition transactions on the Polish banking market, 2007-2009
- Slide 84: Recent mergers on the Polish banking market, 2009
- 7. Top banks profiles
- Slide 85-86: Bank profiles: PKO Bank Polski
- Slide 87-88: Bank profiles: Bank Pekao
- Slide 89-90: Bank profiles: BRE Bank
- Slide 91-92 Bank profiles: ING Bank lšski
- Slide 93-94: Bank profiles: BZ WBK
- 8. Mid-term forecasts
- Slide 95: Banking assets forecast, 2009-2011
- Slide 96: Key retail volumes forecast, 2009-2011
- Slide 97: Key corporate volumes forecast, 2009-2011
- Slide 98: Commercial banks - P&L forecast, 2009
- 9. Note on methodology
AbstractYear of change. After the turbulent beginning of the year 2009 with abrupt currency depreciation and sudden standstill on the inter-bank market, the summer 2009 brought some relief to banks. The pressure on exchange rate has eased and most of toxic derivatives held by corporate clients have expired or have been settled. Also the money market started slowly to work again with more liquidity available in the system. Unfortunately the negative consequences of financial crisis are still not over. The level of non-performing assets is still on rise - Only in 1H 2009 this ratio* recorded an increase by almost 50% to 5.9%. As a result, despite quite successful reduction of operating expenses performed by most banks, the huge value of newly created provisions: 5.7 bn PLN [1H09] vs. 1.4 bn PLN [1H08] has been dragging bank's results down. The combined net profit of all banks fell down by nearly 50% YoY to 4.3 bn PLN in the first half of 2009.
Competitive landscape. During the first half of 2009 no significant changes in market concentration could be observed. The market leader PKO BP was able to increase its market share by a fraction while its major rival Pekao continued to lose market share. Among other big players only BRE bank was able to grow in 1H 2009. In contrast, ING was losing market due to increasing deposits outflow. The three recent entrants: Alior, Allianz and Meritum were developing quickly, however, producing much more costs than revenues. AIG bank sale has been finally closed by an equity swap with Santander. At the same time there have been new rumors about other ownership changes with: Kredyt Bank, BZ WBK and GE-BPH as possible acquisition targets, quoted most frequently. On the buyer's side, apart of just raising equity PKO BP, some French and Spanish banks, in particular SG, are reported to plan further growth in Poland.
Expansion of infrastructure. In the first half of 2009 the trend of quick infrastructure growth known from previous years has been reversed. Most banks started to review their distribution networks with selective closures and personnel cuts, being part of larger operating costs improvement programs. Only few players continued opening of new branches (for example Eurobank, Alior, Allianz). Other exception with no or little cost cuts were online banking platforms like: mBank, ING direct, or investments of banks in automated services (for example: self service areas in outlets, call-centers, internet banking functionalities etc.). The reason for this situation is that most banks perceive the future for mass retail banking services to be increasingly dependent on direct channels/self service solutions.
Perspectives & mid-term forecast. It can be expected that revenues of banks will stagnate within next quarters while costs will continue going up, driven by increasing costs of risk. As a result of persisting high funding costs and relatively low interest rates charged on existing loan portfolios (due to common indexation of loans to WIBOR), the net interest income of banks is not likely to grow significantly, despite slightly rising volumes. Consequently, the net profit of banks will fall sharply in 2009 and it is also not likely to increase substantially in 2010. In contrary to profits, the outlook for key banking volumes in 2009/2010 is more optimistic. Both client deposits and loans are not expected to register a negative growth on a YoY basis. Retail banking segment will remain relatively strong although demographic trends will gradually erase positive effects of reduced income tax and lower social security rates - factors, that contributed to a relatively strong retail deposits growth in 2009. In corporate business, deposits may tend to increase faster than lending due to reduced investments and cash hoarding by enterprises
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