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Forecast Update: fixed broadband access equipment

Published by: Ovum Plc

Published: Aug. 26, 2009 - 24 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive summary
In a nutshell
Ovum view
Key messages
Key changes from the previous forecast
Forecast summary
Global fixed broadband access market to remain above $7 billion annually during forecast period
Results for 1Q09
First-quarter FTTx subscribers are up 27% and are showing no signs of slowing
DSL shipments drop 10% in 1Q09; CMTS shipments also slump 6% after year of enormous growth
Long-range market forecast drivers and barriers
IPTV, competition, and government initiatives will keep broadband network spending on a steady course
Product group forecasts
The FTTx market will grow at a faster rate than other access categories
Regional forecasts
Stronger subscriber growth expected in developing Asia, Middle East & Africa, and South & Central America
Market scenarios and early warning signs
FTTx
DSL
CMTS
List of Figures
Figure 1: Broadband equipment spending, old vs. new forecast
Figure 2: Market forecast range, broadband equipment spending, 2006-2014
Figure 3: FTTx subscriber additions by quarter, 2Q07-1Q09
Figure 4: Subscriber additions by region, 2Q08-1Q09
Figure 5: DSL port shipments by quarter, 2Q07-1Q09
Figure 6: CMTS port shipments (upstream and downstream) by quarter, 2Q07-1Q09
Figure 7: Forecast by product group, 2006-14
Figure 8: FTTx revenue forecast by technology
Figure 9: FTTx revenue by product type, 2006-14
Figure 10: DSL forecast by technology, 2006-14
Figure 11: CMTS forecast by technology, 2006-14
Figure 12: Cumulative subscriber forecast by region, 2006-14
Figure 13: Broadband spending by region, 2006-2014

Abstract

Ovum forecasts fixed broadband network spending of over $45 billion over the forecast period (2009-2014), with periods of growth alternating with periods of decline in the most likely scenario. After some strong growth in recent years, aggregate fixed broadband subscriber growth is set to slow down, with single-digit annual growth rates over the forecast period. Of the major fixed broadband technologies, spending on consumer FTTx deployments at $23 billion will be the largest category. Cumulative FTTx subscribers, comprised mainly of FTTB and FTTH, will grow at 27% CAGR with Asia-Pacific leading the way. In particular, China is poised to become the fastest growing country with aggressive FTTB deployments. The need for capacity upgrades will drive equipment spending as much as or more than subscriber additions. Among DSL technologies, Ovum expects to see growth from ADSL2+ and VDSL2 categories in selected markets in 2010 and beyond, primarily due to FTTB, FTTC, and FTTN deployments. We also expect the CMTS equipment market to grow from 2010 onwards as DOCSIS 3.0 upgrades gather momentum and MSOs increasingly transport IP video through the CMTS. Vendors need to have products in the growth categories and in several markets during this time to achieve volumes that drive profitability.

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