Market Share: 1Q09 optical networks, global and regional

Published by: Ovum Plc

Published: Aug. 7, 2009 - 50 Pages

Table of Contents

Executive summary

In a nutshell

Ovum view

1Q09 quarterly results

Changes to our ON share reporting, commencing 1Q09

Global spending down 18% from 4Q08 and 9% from 1Q08

Key messages

Battle of the titans: Huawei upsets Alcatel-Lucent to grab the 1Q09 lead; Alcatel-Lucent hangs onto the annualized share lead…for now

Changes in top ten market positions: ZTE and Ciena move up, Nokia Siemens and Tellabs move down

Macroeconomic malaise, differentially severe in North America and western Europe, is a significant factor in share changes…

…but it’s not the only factor: strategy matters

Market share — global

Spending shifts to emerging markets and WDM segments continue to shake up the vendor field

Market share changes

Analysis of quarterly results

Market growth and outlook

Strong 1Q09 spending in China and India raise Asia-Pacific spending results above expectations so far in 2009

Regional analysis — all regions

Asia-Pacific spending grows as a slice of global, largely at the expense of North America

Product-level analysis

Segment overview

Challengers’ interest in SLTE market grows despite lumpy spending and Alcatel-Lucent’s solid control of the top spot

Regional analysis — Asia-Pacific

China drives 31% year-over-year growth in AP; mobile spending pushes aggregation back above 60% of total

Market share changes

Analysis of quarterly results: Huawei even more dominant than usual, as race for second place continues among Alcatel-Lucent, ZTE, and NEC

Subregional Asia-Pacific results

Market growth and outlook

2009 spending on track with forecast

Product-level analysis

Aggregation segment proves resilient due to wireless carriers, even as CPO adoption is slow; ROADM-based metro WDM network builds continue

Regional analysis — EMEA

1Q09 spending down 16% year over year; market leader Alcatel-Lucent just slightly ahead of Huawei for the quarter

Market share changes

Analysis of quarterly results: Huawei and vendors with metro WDM strength did well in 1Q09, but Alcatel-Lucent still has commanding lead

Subregional EMEA results

Market growth and outlook

2009 spending on track with forecast

Product-level analysis

WDM continues to hold up relatively well as 40G buildouts begin; CPO and ROADM segments account for roughly 10% of total spending combined

Regional analysis — North America

Market continues to slide as spending remains weak; 1Q09 market retreats to lowest level in 15 quarters

Market share changes

Analysis of quarterly results: Fujitsu zeros in on Alcatel-Lucent’s lead

Market growth and outlook

North American ON spending hampered by the economic slowdown; market contraction spills over into 1Q09

2009-14 outlook

Product-level analysis

1Q09 saw broad-based revenue declines in market segments; metro ROADM and 40G are driving share shifts

Regional analysis — SCA

Small SCA regional market tumbles more than global average sequentially, but less compared with 1Q08

Market share changes

Despite lumpy spending patterns, share trends show less movement and volatility than in other markets

Market growth and outlook

SCA ON spending hampered by the economic slowdown and financing uncertainty, but upside coming from Chinese vendor financing

2009-14 outlook

Product-level analysis

SCA WDM spending showing more strength than aggregation and bandwidth management

List of Tables

Table 1: Analysis of quarterly results, global ON

Table 2: 1Q09 global ON spending versus revised 2009 forecast

Table 3: Analysis of quarterly ON results, Asia-Pacific

Table 4: Market share by subregion, Asia-Pacific ON, 1Q09

Table 5: 1Q09 Asia-Pacific ON spending versus revised 2009 forecast

Table 6: Product segment-level market assessment: Asia-Pacific

Table 7: Analysis of quarterly ON results, EMEA

Table 8: Market share by subregion, EMEA ON, 1Q09

Table 9: 1Q09 EMEA ON spending versus revised 2009 forecast

Table 10: Product segment-level market assessment: EMEA

Table 11: Analysis of quarterly ON results, North America

Table 12: 1Q09 North American ON spending versus revised 2009 forecast

Table 13: Product segment-level market assessment: North America

Table 14: 1Q09 SCA ON spending versus revised 2009 forecast

Table 15: Product segment-level market assessment: SCA

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global ON market revenues by quarter, 2Q07-1Q09

Figure 2: Foreign exchange shifts complicate market analysis

Figure 3: Comparison of annualized ON market share for the top five global vendors

Figure 4: Market share (rolling 4 quarters), global ON

Figure 5: Market share gains and losses, global ON

Figure 6: Global ON market by region, rolling 4 quarters

Figure 7: Global ON market by segment, rolling 4 quarters

Figure 8: Rolling 4Q spending in aggregation vs. metro WDM, global

Figure 9: Market share (rolling 4 quarters), Asia-Pacific ON

Figure 10: Comparison of annualized ON market share for the top four Asia-Pacific vendors

Figure 11: Market share gains and losses, Asia-Pacific ON

Figure 12: Market share (rolling 4 quarters), EMEA ON

Figure 13: Comparison of annualized ON market share for the top four EMEA vendors

Figure 14: Market share gains and losses, EMEA ON

Figure 15: Market share (rolling 4 quarters), North American ON

Figure 16: Comparison of annualized ON market share for the top four North American vendors

Figure 17: Market share gains and losses, North American ON

Figure 18: Comparison of annualized ON market share for the top four South and Central American vendors

Abstract

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