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Uganda Defence and Security Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Oct. 21, 2009 - 50 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractDespite the arrival of peace to the country’s north after two decades of insurgency, Uganda continues toface an unpredictable and complex security situation, particularly in light of upcoming presidential andparliamentary elections in 2011. In September 2009, violent riots with a political and ethnic characterparalysed the country’s capital for several days, boding ill for a smooth run-up to the 2011 polls. Andwhile the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) may not currently operate on Ugandan soil, it still existsas a destabilising regional force. Elsewhere, a major crackdown on violent cattle raids in eastern Ugandahas seen more than 80 Karamojong warriors killed by the army in 2009, and a dispute with Kenya over anisland in Lake Victoria continues to smoulder.As many as 21 people were killed in several days of violent riots in Kampala and outlying districts inSeptember 2009, after police barred the ruling monarch of the historical Buganda kingdom from visiting avolatile town in the territory that he claims as part of his kingdom. This longstanding land disputebetween the government and the Buganda, as well as complex legal relations with the three otherhistorical kingdoms, could again boil over. Reports also suggest that the opposition is using such issues asa means for mobilising opinion against the government. Meanwhile, rights groups criticised the police fora heavy-handed response to the clashes. BMI believes that further civil disturbances and violent clashesare likely in the extended run-up to the 2011 polls. Following the joint military operation launched against the rebel LRA by Uganda, South Sudan and theDemocratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in December 2008, and the brutal reprisals in north east Congoand South Sudan, LRA activity has continued at an intermittent, but substantial, level. The LRA formerlyoperated entirely within Uganda, terrorising the civilian population of the north for over 20 years, butshifted its base to north east Congo in 2005. Operation Lightning Thunder came after LRA leader JosephKony repeatedly failed to turn up at the signing of a comprehensive peace agreement negotiated through2006-2008. The attack destroyed LRA bases in Congo’s Garamba National Park and killed a number ofrebels, but the majority of the force was scattered across the region, massacring as they went. Numerous attacks by suspected LRA elements continue to be reported in northeastern Congo, SouthSudan and eastern Central African Republic (CAR). While the Ugandan government declared theoperation a success, BMI believes that although it was a blow to the rebel group, the attack did notremove the LRA threat. Instead, reports suggest that the force is now better armed and larger, following afresh campaign of abductions across the region, and that its fighters are increasingly drawn from Congo,CAR and South Sudan. While no LRA attacks have been reported in northern Uganda since OperationLightning Thunder, the rebel group remains a concern for both the government and citizens of the north,many of whom have returned home after years in displaced persons camps. The Ugandan army has reportedly killed more than 80 Karamojong warriors since the start of 2009, as itseeks to crack down on the tribesmen’s deadly raids. The crackdown came as the frequency of cattle raidswas stepped up, with the rainy season helping to cover the raiders’ tracks. After failed voluntarydisarmament exercises, the armed forces have been forcibly disarming the semi-nomadic group. The row between Kenya and Uganda over Migingo Island in Lake Victoria continued to smoulderthrough the quarter, as the joint boundary survey, launched in June 2009, quickly hit a stalemate over aprocedural disagreement. The two countries’ foreign ministers are yet to meet to resolve the dispute andreactivate the survey, the mandate for which has already expired. Uganda lacks an established indigenous defence industry and its armed forces are almost entirelydependent upon procurement from overseas. This reliance has left the Ugandan armed forces underequippedand reliant on obsolete, ageing equipment, with the government unable to procure modernhardware due to economic limitations. This scenario is unlikely to change in the near future givenUganda’s relatively weak economy and widening balance of trade deficit. Military spending hascontinued to increase in real terms, but growth in expenditure is likely to stabilise at 3.5% per annum overthe coming years. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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