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Sudan Defence and Security Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Oct. 21, 2009 - 44 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractStrained relations between North and South Sudan continue to define the country’s political and securitydynamic as it approaches elections in 2010 and the South’s intended referendum on independence in2011. While the situation in Darfur remains of concern, problems in the implementation of theComprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between North and South are of growing significance, and itsfailure has the potential to return Sudan to widespread conflict. Both the 2010 poll and the 2011referendum could serve as flashpoints between two sides struggling to find common ground.Signed in 2005 to end a 21-year civil war between North and South Sudan, deadlines for certainsubstantial provisions of the CPA are rapidly approaching. As they do, tensions between the North’sruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the South’s Sudanese People’s Liberation Army/Movement(SPLA/M) are rising. While the NCP and SPLM signed a bilateral, and co-operative, action plan inAugust 2009 covering key issues including the 2010 elections, there is still disagreement over thelegitimacy of the 2008 census and deadlock on the details of the 2011 referendum. In addition, both sideshave accused the other of training or arming groups against them. Worsening North-South relations are set against the backdrop of rising insecurity in South Sudan, where acomplex series of local alliances and ethnic disputes have erupted on numerous occasions, with as manyas 1,200 killed in 2009. The security dynamic in the South is further complicated by the presence of anunknown number of fighters from the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), an insurgency originallybased in northern Uganda. After continuous low-level violence, the UN in August 2009 reported anincrease in attacks and abductions by suspected LRA elements, with at least 200 reportedly killed by theLRA in the South. On a positive note, both the NCP and SPLM welcomed the border ruling handed down by the PermanentCourt of Arbitration in July 2009 for the contested province of Abyei, a resource-rich province lyingbetween North and South Sudan. The judgement shifted the border to give the North access to theregion’s richest oil field, while giving an ethnic group - expected to vote for independence in 2011 -control of the rest of the area. Meanwhile, in Darfur, a peace deal remains elusive. Although the outgoing UN military commander forthe region stated in August 2009 that the war was over, low-level violence continues. Attacks andabductions of peacekeepers and humanitarian workers have not abated, while both government airstrikesand rebel activity have been reported in the last quarter. The volatile security situation was exacerbated bythe March 2009 issue of an arrest warrant for Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir by the InternationalCriminal Court, but appears to have since stabilised. Intensified efforts to bring together parties for peace talks have raised hopes of a marginally closer deal,with four rival Darfur rebel factions recently announcing that they would unify for the purposes ofnegotiations. The lack of inter-faction unification had delayed a promised first round of peace talks withthe Sudanese government, to be held in Qatar under the auspices of the Doha process. Meanwhile, Qatarmediatedtalks between the rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and the government weresuspended in June 2009. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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