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Germany Defence and Security Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Oct. 21, 2009 - 71 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Germany Security SWOT
Germany Defence SWOT
Germany Political SWOT
Germany Economic SWOT
Political Overview
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Germany’s Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Western Europe City Terrorism Index
Europe Regional Security Overview
Germany Security Overview
Domestic Terrorism
Latest Developments
Timeline: Internal Threats
External Security Situation
International Terrorism
Latest Developments
Timeline: External Threats
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (‘000, including conscripted)
Defence Posture
Defence Reform
Conscription
Constraints On Defence Capabilities
International Deployments
Table: Germany International Deployments
Co-ordination And Joint Operations
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Background
Table: Key Players In Germany’s Defence Industry
Latest Developments
Timeline: Defence And Procurement
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Army Enlargements, 2005-2013 (‘000 personnel)
Expenditure
Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry, 2005-2013
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Germany - Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2008-2012
Company Profiles
EADS
Rheinmetall Group
Krauss-Maffei Wegmann
Country Snapshot: Germany Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources

Abstract

In a major development, the German military contingent in Afghanistan began participating inoffensive operations against Taliban insurgents in July. On July 23 German defence minister FranzJosef Jung announced the changes to rules of engagement (ROE) that allowed German troops toconduct joint operations with Afghan National Army (ANA) units in the north of the central Asiacountry. The first mission under the new ROE involved some 300 German troops, backed by mortarsand Marder infantry fighting vehicles, supporting some 1,200 ANA troops in a major cordon andsearch operation. German air force Tornado bombers also provide close air support during theoperation. Up to now the German government had restricted its troops to civil reconstruction for thecivil population and training for the ANA.

Although this development is a significant shift in German policy in Afghanistan and represents aneffort by the government to rebut criticism that it was not ‘pulling its weight’ in campaign, ChancellorAngela Merkel has not yet agreed to move German troops to high intensity war zone in southernAfghanistan from the relatively peaceful north. This would expose Germans troops to considerablerisk and is unlikely to be take place until after the September 2009 Federal Parliamentary elections.

Merkel is thought to be keen to dampen down the Afghan issue and prevent the Social Democrat Partyfrom using it as an issue in the election campaign.

Germany has suffered no significant terrorist attacks this year as Berlin’s intelligence, security andlaw enforcement agencies continue to co-operate extensively with the European and internationalcounterparts. Berlin indicated in June that it would not participate in any agreement between the EUand the US to accommodate up to 50 detainees from the controversial US-run prison at GuantánamoBay in Cuba. The agreement was part of the Obama administration’s drive to clear the prison ofdetainees but the German government indicated that it was unwilling to take any of the releasedinmates unless the US itself housed some of them. As this seems very unlikely, Berlin is unlikely toparticipate in the programme to provide the detainees with new homes in Europe.

German defence spending still appears to be at robust levels and the government has made majorcommitments to a number of high profile equipment programmes in the past three months. TheLuftwaffe received a major boost on July 31 when the four nation Eurofighter partner nations signedthe Tranche 3A contract. This will see Germany buy 31 Tranche 3 Typhoon aircraft, worth EUR2.8bnfor delivery by 2013, as part of a umbrella contract that will see 112 aircraft across the partner nations.

German defence exports remain focused on a series of specialist niche areas, including warship andsubmarine building. A major success was achieved in July in Turkey, which ordered six Type 214submarines in a EUR2.5bn contract for local assembly. The submarines will be assembled at theGolcuk Naval Shipyard near Izmit and the first vessel will be delivered in 2015

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