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Thailand Defence and Security Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Oct. 21, 2009 - 47 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Thailand Security SWOT
Thailand Defence Industry SWOT
Thailand Political SWOT
Thailand Economic SWOT
Thailand Business Environment SWOT
Political Overview
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Thailand’s Security Risk
Terrorism Risk
Physical Safety Risk
Conflict Risk
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
South East Asia Regional Security Overview
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
BRN-K
GMIP/PULO
Table: Thai Muslim Insurgents
External Security Situation
Drugs Trade
Armed Forces and Government Spending
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (including conscripted, ‘000)
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends and Developments
Competitive Landscape
Table: Thailand’s Military Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Army Enlargements
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry
Table: Thailand’s Armed Forces, 2004-2013 (‘000 personnel unless otherwise stated)
Table: Thailand’s Armed Forces And Government Defence Expenditure, 2004-2013 (‘000 personnel unless otherwise stated)
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Thailand - Economic Activity, 2005-2013
Company Profiles
Loxley
Thai-Italian Interarms Company
Minebea
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources

Abstract

The political tensions in Thailand’s ongoing colour-coded clashes continue to simmer, flaring upoccasionally before subsiding but never far from the surface. They continue to be the key issue facing thecountry - as they have for more than a year. On top of that there are serious concerns about the health ofthe king, aged 82, who as of early September had been hospitalised for more than a week suffering from‘inflammation of the lungs’ and an enduring fever according to the Royal Household Bureau, the onlysource of information. The king is a highly revered figure in Thailand and his ill-health has led to a focus- usually in private due to draconian lèse majesté laws - about issues surrounding the succession. Thepresumed heir, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn shares none of the affection of the Thai people enjoyed byhis father and it is an open question how large sections of the population would greet his accession to thethrone.

Set against this is a political situation characterised by uncertainty and divisions that grow moreinternecine by the day. Prime Minister Abhisit Veijajiva shares power in an uneasy coalition of fractiousparties made possible only by continued dealings with Newin Chidchob, an old-style up-countrypolitician. Abhisit also came to power with the approval of the so-called People’s Alliance for Democracy(PAD) - the ‘yellow shirts’ - the largely royalist group that shut down Bangkok’s international airportsfor a week in late 2008 and wants most members of parliament appointed rather than elected.

Abhisit is now paying the price for his anointment by the PAD in the form of yellow shirt demands forthe return of Preah Vihear temple from Cambodia, a situation that has already seen deadly border clashes.The dispute, largely an expression of PAD nationalism, has the potential to develop into serious clashesboth between Thai and Cambodian troops and between different Thai groups who disagree on the issue.In September an estimated 2,000 anti-Thaksin PAD protesters gathered at Preah Vihear. At least 15 wereinjured when PAD supporters broke through Thai police lines and ran towards the temple. They wererepelled by Cambodians armed with slingshots, sticks and other crude weapons.

However, there were also clashes between PAD protestors and local Thais who depend on cross-bordertrade for some of their livelihood. The matter remains unresolved.

The PAD’s opposition group, the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) or the ‘redshirts’, largely (but far from exclusively) supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, havelaunched violent demonstrations of their own and led to street violence in Q209. Matters came to a headin April when the UDD stormed the 14th ASEAN Summit in the eastern beach resort city of Pattaya,forcing the meetings to be cancelled. The UDD rally, aiming to oust the government led-by PrimeMinister Abhisit, later escalated into clashes with the military and Bangkok residents, leaving more than100 injured and two dead.

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