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Taiwan Defence and Security Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Oct. 21, 2009 - 56 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractDespite - or perhaps because of - its status as a renegade province of China, security and defence issuesin Taiwan change little from quarter to quarter. The three months ending September 2009 were noexception.A highlight was the visit to Taiwan by the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader-in-exile of China’s Tibetanpopulation. The Dalai Lama went to areas of the island that had been devastated by Typhoon Morakot. InBeijing, the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of the Chinese government noted that the Dalai Lama’s visitwould likely have ‘a negative influence’ on Cross-Strait relations. In practice, relations between Taiwan and China continue to improve - a point recognised by TAO headWang Yi in mid-September. Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou’s administration has achieved a steadystrengthening of cross-Strait links. Indeed, given the need to counter the impact on Taiwan’s exportorientatedeconomy of the slump in trade in the wake of the global financial crisis - and the comparativeeconomic resilience of mainland China - it could be argued that the Taiwanese government has noalternative. In short, an invasion of Taiwan by China - which has always been a low probability scenario - is mostunlikely, not least because of the economic, military and political costs that it would entail for China.BMI’s assessment of other security challenges in Taiwan, such as crime and terrorism, has delivered oneof the highest overall risk ratings in the Asia-Pacific region. In absolute terms, Taiwan remains one of the world’s largest importers of defence-aerospace materiel, notleast because the Ministry of National Defence is, like its peers in many other countries, seeking tostreamline and modernise the military. Although US groups remain the principal suppliers, Taiwan hasbeen diversifying its procurement sources, with the result that French and German firms regularlycompete in official tenders. The indigenous defence industry is dominated by three firms - CSIST, AIDC and CSBC - all of whichsuffer from financial and organisational problems. In spite of the official policy of self-reliance in defenceproduction, foreign groups are the only suppliers that are actually able to provide Taiwan with the hightechequipment that its defence forces require. Key issues remain the perceived inability of Taiwan’s air force to fight a war with China lasting morethan two days (given the lack of munitions) and the value of various Early Warning and missiledevelopment programmes. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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