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European Leisure Travel Industry - Europe

Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.

Published: Sep. 1, 2009 - 205 Pages


Table of Contents


INTRODUCTION

Key findings

Abbreviations



DATA SOURCES



EUROPEAN OVERVIEW

POPULATION STRUCTURE

Ageing of the population

80+ segment to grow rapidly

Figure 1: Percentage distribution of the population in selected age groups, by region/country, 2009 and 2050

More outbound travel from Northern & Central Europe

25-44 age segment is the prime outbound travel market

Drop in outbound travel after 64

Figure 2: Breakdown of trips (holidays of four nights or more), by country, age segment and type of destination, 2006

Figure 3: Breakdown of trips (holidays of four nights or more), by country, age segment and type of destination, 2006 (continued)

ECONOMIC GROWTH

IMF sees light at the end of the tunnel

But unemployment will continue to rise

Figure 4: GDP growth, consumer prices, unemployment and current accounts balances, 2007-10

EXCHANGE RATE OUTLOOK

Figure 5: Exchange rates, actual and forecast, (units per US$), 2008-10

Impact of currency moves on European leisure travel

TRAVEL AND TOURISM EXPENDITURE

Figure 6: Trend in European nominal expenditure on travel and tourism and incoming receipts, 2008-13

Long-term outlook

Figure 7: Travel and tourism expenditure in europe, 2009-19

INTERNET PENETRATION AND USER GROWTH

Figure 8: Internet users and penetration, by European country, June 2009



MAJOR INDUSTRY PLAYERS AND THE CURRENT MARKET

MERGERS, ACQUISITIONS, RESTRUCTURING, BANKRUPTCIES - TREND TOWARDS CONSOLIDATION

TUI Travel and Thomas Cook Group dominate a shrinking market

TUI sells Hapag-Lloyd for €4.45 billion

TUI retains a one-third stake

Fredriksen versus Mordashov

Conflict of interest accusations

Fredriksen’s motion did not succeed

TUI AG might take back some TUI Travel operations to Germany

BANKRUPTCY IS THE ORDER OF THE DAY

XL left tens of thousands stranded

Skyrocketing fuel costs

Warning signs of a collapse

Trading under a wide variety of names

Impact on the travelling public

Bankruptcy usually not covered

Impact on the industry

A UK market share of 7-10%

Thomas Cook parent, Arcandor AG, in dire financial straits

Thomas Cook excluded from bankruptcy proceedings

REWE could be interested in Cook

Obstacles to be overcome

A financial sale also possible

Thomas Cook sale increasingly likely

Cook raises some cash with the sale of its stake in L’TUR



RANKING OF THE MAJOR PLAYERS

Stagnation since 2002

The two top tour operators worldwide are UK plcs

Figure 9: Top 10 European leisure travel groups, fiscal years 2007 and 2008

TUI TRAVEL/TUI AG

Mainstream

Central Europe

Northern Europe

Western Europe

Margins improved in fiscal year 2008

Figure 10: Mainstream sector results, FY 2007/08

Specialist and emerging markets

North America

Europe

Emerging markets

Falling revenues and lower margins

Figure 11: Specialist and emerging markets sector results, FY 2007/08

Activity sector

Adventure

Marine

Ski

Student

TUI has acquired language course specialists

Sport

Activity - a growth sector

Figure 12: Activity sector results, FY 2007/08

Accommodation & Destinations

B2B - Portfolio Incoming

B2B - Hotelbeds

B2C

A high margin growing business

Figure 13: Accommodation & Destinations results, FY 2007/08

TUI Hotels & Resorts

Figure 14: TUI Hotels & Resorts portfolio, 31 December 2008

RIU

RiuLand Children’s entertainment

1,000 rooms to open in Cuba

Grupotel

Robinson

Magic Life

Iberotel

Grecotel

Dorfhotels

Other TUI hotel brands

Underlying operating profit up 53% for TUI Travel

Figure 15: Underlying/reported comparative results for TUI Travel, years ended 30 September 2007/08

Figure 16: Reconciliation of underlying profit before tax to reported profit/(loss) before tax, 2007/08

Turnover up 9% for TUI Hotels & Resorts

Cruise turnover up 9%

Figure 17: Results for TUI AG’s hotels and cruise businesses, fiscal years ended 31 October, 2007/08

Prospects for the current financial year

Winter 2008/09 went according to plan

Figure 18: TUI Travel trading update, winter season 2008/09, 30 April 2009

Summer not looking good, however

Figure 19: Booking trends for summer 2009, y-o-y change % as of 2 August 2009

Down across the boards

Figure 20: Current trading summer 2009, as of 10 May 2009

A weak Q1/2009 for TUI AG

Figure 21: Consolidated results for TUI’s tourism businesses, FY Q1/2008/09

THOMAS COOK GROUP

Details by segment

Figure 22: Summary of Thomas Cook business units, based on results for FY 2007/08

Interim results flattered by favourable currency moves

Thomas Cook expands in the luxury sector

Cook is expanding outside Europe

Acquisitions in India & Middle East

Terms of the deals

Strategic alignment

TCIL

Egypt

The TriWest acquisition

Thomas Cook’s hotel links

Thomas Cook has purchased MedHotels from lastminute.com

Holiday hotels

Cook has also purchased hotels4U

Med Hotels and hotels4u to remain separate brands

Sentido launches with 17 hotels

Mountain regions could also be included

Thomas Cook in exclusive deal for Turkish hotels

REWE

Two types of tour operators

ITS - the volume brand

Jahn Reisen - the brand for individual specialities

Tjaereborg - the dynamically priced brand

INDI

Dertour - the modular holiday brand

Dertour enters the health tourism market

2009 turnover up 18% in Romania

Meier’s Weltreisen - the long-haul specialist

ADAC Reisen - the mobile holiday brand

REWE Touristik Hotels & Investments

Calimera Active Hotels

PrimaSol Hotels

LTI International Hotels

Number one for distribution

Sales downturn for specialist tour operators

Heavy discounting for early booking

REWE might buy a study tour operator

KUONI

Leisure travel

A new concierge service introduced

Mainstream segment

Distribution

Kuoni’s concierge service

Destination Management

Recent acquisitions

Desert Adventures Tourism

Kuoni acquired ATM

Kuoni moves into the Chinese market

Guangzhou International Travel Services

160 travel agencies and a turnover of €133 million

Kuoni discontinued Shoestring

2008 results encouraging

But cash flow down…

Results by SBU

Switzerland

Scandinavia

UTE Megapolus

SBU Europe

SBU United Kingdom

Asia & Destination Management

Outlook

A new reporting structure

Figure 23: Tour-operating booking levels for the Kuoni Group as of 15 March 2009

Kuoni’s cost reduction programme

CLUB MED

The move upmarket

Figure 24: Number of 4-/5-trident customers in the winter season, 2004-09

Quality not quantity

Figure 25: Club Med customer numbers, by region, 2004-08

Shoring up company finances

Club Med no longer in the tour operator business

Club Med also exits the fitness business

Capital increase

Adapting to the global crisis

Figure 26: Adapting CAPEX projects, 2007-10

Figure 27: Capacity, by category and region, 2007 and 2008

ALLTOURS

Alltours’ new tour operator

Alltours is buying hotels

No borrowing necessary

New hotel concept

Alltours España

ALPITOUR

Revenue stagnating

Figure 28: Alpitour results, FY 2007-08

Figure 29: Results, by business segment, FY 2008

Alpitour’s tour operator brands

Alpitour World Hotels & Resorts

Alpitour divests

Outlook

HOTELPLAN

EBITDA down sharply in fiscal 2008

Figure 30: Hotelplan comparative results, FY 2007/08

Figure 31: Turnover, by Hotelplan subsidiary, FY 2008

Hotelplan Group growth strategy

M-Travel subdivisions

Figure 32: Hotelplan Group strategy, 2007-09

TClub expanded internationally

New niche operators

VACANDO

Hotelplan also in Russia

Inntravel

FTI TOURISTIK

The specialists

LAL Language Travel

Figure 33: FTI’s language school portfolio, 2008-09

fly.de

DriveFTI

Distribution

Sonnenklar.TV

Destinations

Winners and losers for the summer season 2009

Outlook for the winter season 2009/10

All-inclusive trend continues

Early booking savings - including bonus nights on arrival

13% more hotels in 14 catalogues

VENTAGLIO

Ventaglio’s tour operator brands

Ventaglio

Viaggi Columbus

Ventaglio I Viaggi

Caleidoscopio reinstated

Utat Viaggi sold

Best Tours

105Travel - the new youth brand

‘Lungomare’

New developments in fiscal year 2008

Distribution strategy

www.ventapoint.com

Group EBITDA down by 74% in fiscal year 2008

Figure 34: Ventaglio Group’s comparative results, FY 2007-08

The ‘2009-12 restructuring and turnaround plan’

Asset sales already anticipated and underway

Livingston sold

Best Tours sold

15 hotels sold



ONLINE TRAVEL GROUPS

Figure 35: Global distribution system ownership breakdown, 2009

AMADEUS

SABRE

TRAVELPORT

GDSS STILL AN IMPORTANT CHANNEL

WHO ARE THE BIG INTERNET PLAYERS WORLDWIDE?

BRAND EXPANSION STRATEGY

Figure 36: Selected major Internet travel portal providers active in Europe, 2009

Expedia Europe

Europe’s bookings and revenue more than 20% of Expedia’s total

Figure 37: Segment results for Expedia Europe, 2006-08

Expedia tussles with Ryanair

Ryanair later backed out of the deal

Expedia’s Venere.com acquisition

Agency basis only

Venere operates autonomously

Expedia beefs up EMEA presence

JoinExpedia.com

Global lodging agreements

Orbitz

Figure 38: Orbitz share price, July 2007-July 2009

Priceline

Travelocity

hotel.de AG

HRS (R Ragge GmbH)



MAJOR EUROPEAN OUTBOUND MARKETS BY COUNTRY/REGION

ONLY FOUR TRUE INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS LEFT

Figure 39: Geographic coverage of leading European tour operators, 2009

AUSTRIA

Figure 40: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Austria, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Holiday trips of four nights or more

Travel propensity

Figure 41: Holiday travel behaviour of the Austrian population, 2000-08

Figure 42: Top destinations abroad for main holiday trips, 2007

Transport

Accommodation

Seasonality

Travel market

TUI Austria

Figure 43: TUI Austria performance data, FY 2007-08

Winter trading update 2008/09

Figure 44: TUI Austria -2008/09 winter trading update, at 30 April 2009

Summer trading update 2009

Figure 45: TUI Austria - summer trading update, at 10 May 2009

ITS Billa Reisen Austria’s direct marketing operator

FTI Austria

BELGIUM

Figure 46: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Belgium, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Figure 47: Trend in Belgian holidays, 2000-07

France remains number one

Figure 48: Ranking of holiday destinations, by Belgian arrivals, 2000-07

Shorter stays at the beach

Figure 49: Holidays - Average length of stay, by destination, 2000-07

Travel market

Air packages 61% in summer 2008

Accommodation only - a growth segment

Winter 2008-09 bookings down 5.6%

Air packages take a hit - down 10.4%

Car holidays fared slightly better

Ski holidays held up well

The TUI and Thomas Cook duopoly

TUI profit up

Winter 2009/10 trading update

Figure 50: TUI Belgium - 2008/09 winter trading update at 30 April 2009

Summer 2009 trading update

Figure 51: TUI Belgium - summer trading update at 10 May 2009

Thomas Cook

EASTERN EUROPE (CZECH REPUBLIC, HUNGARY AND POLAND)

Czech Republic - market characteristics

Figure 52: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Czech Republic, 2009-19

Figure 53: Long outbound personal trips of four overnights or more, 2007

Czech Republic - travel market

CK Fischer

ITS Billa Travel comes to Czech Republic

Hungary - market characteristics

Figure 54: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Hungary, 2009-19

Hungary - travel market

Thomas Cook

TUI

Budget carrier competition

Poland - market characteristics

Figure 55: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Poland, 2009-19

Poland - travel market

TUI

Figure 56: TUI Poland - 2008/09 winter trading update at 30 April 2009

Figure 57: TUI Poland - summer 2009 trading update at 10 May 2009

Thomas Cook

Orbis Travel

FRANCE

Figure 58: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in France, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Figure 59: Year-on-year trend in personal trips taken, by French residents 15+, 2007-08

Different trends according to type of accommodation and destination

Figure 60: Type of accommodation used for personal trips, by destinations, comparison 2007-08

Lower discretionary spending while on holiday

French restaurant VAT reduced

A sharp drop in trips abroad

Figure 61: Trend in trips, by length of stay according to destination, comparison 2007-08

Foreign destinations

Figure 62: Personal travel in overseas France and abroad, by destination, 2007

Current air travel destination trends for the summer of 2009

Figure 63: Top five short-haul destinations for the month of July 2009

Figure 64: Top five long-haul destinations for the month of July 2009

Train travel gaining ground

Figure 65: Y-o-y % change in personal trips, by mode of transport, 2007-08

Less hotel arrivals in the French West Indies, but an increase in Guyana

A fall in hotel capacity in the DOMs

Figure 66: Trend in hotel nights in the DOMs, 2007-08

Travel market

But 2009 looks more challenging…

Flight-only is still up, however…

100% more tourists were bailed out by the French APS in 2008

TUI/Nouvelles Frontiéres

Winter sales down

Figure 67: TUI France - 2008/09 winter trading update at 30 April 2009

Sales decline seen accelerating for the summer 2009

Figure 68: TUI france - summer 2009 trading update at 10 May 2009

Thomas Cook

Jet tours acquisition

Marmara

Club Med

Fram

Fram buys Plein Vent

GERMANY

Figure 69: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Germany, 2009-19

The world’s biggest outbound market

Market characteristics

Figure 70: German holiday travel propensity, 2004-08

Germans still confident in early 2009

Figure 71: Trend in German travel intentions for the travel year 2008/09

Holiday travel only sacrificed as a last resort

Trend in holiday destinations

Figure 72: Trend in holiday destinations, 1997-2008

Non-European Mediterranean gains further market share

Figure 73: Market share of non-European Mediterranean destinations of all holiday trips, 2002-08

Ranking of domestic destinations

Figure 74: Leading destinations for domestic holidays in Germany, 2008

Mediterranean and Austria on top

Only 6% of trips are long haul

Figure 75: Holiday destinations abroad, 2008

Long-term trends in transport and accommodation

Figure 76: Long-term trend in transport and accommodation used on holiday trips, 1998 and 2008

Travel organisation and booking

Figure 77: Organisation of holiday trips, 2005 and 2008

Trend in booking channels

Figure 78: Trend in booking channels, 2005 and 2008

12 million Germans to book summer holidays online

Outlook for spending on holiday travel in 2009

Figure 79: Holiday expenditure planned for 2009

Holidays are considered as basic need

Figure 80: Ranking of consumption priorities, 2006 and 2008

More optimism, but sales still weak…

Tentative recovery in June

Travel market

Figure 81: Long-term market trend in client numbers and revenues, 2000-08

Market share trends

Figure 82: Ten leading tour operators in Germany, 2008 (ranked by fiscal 2008 turnover)

Triumph of the ‘Middelstands’

TUI

Figure 83: TUI Germany - 2008/09 winter trading update at 30 April 2009

TUI sees downturn for the summer 2009

Figure 84: Summer 2009 trading update, 10 May 2009

Destination trends

TUI Germany 2008 trading results

TUI cutting prices and capacity for the winter 2009-10

Margins to be maintained

New products for the winter season

Co-operation between TUIfly and Air Berlin

But the plan for a crossholding has been annulled

De-risking of TUIfly achieved

Air Berlin & LTU

Wolters to become ‘TUI Ferienhaus’

TUI’s ‘Reiseleicht’ modular brand

Thomas Cook

Airlines Germany

Figure 85: Performance data for Thomas Cook’s German airline, 2008

Neckermann agencies purchased

REWE Touristik

Alltours

FTI Touristik

Öger - Gruppe

Figure 86: Öger tours clients and turnover, fiscal years 2005-08

Tour operators

Hotels and incoming figures

Aida Cruises

Schauinsland

Phoenix

GTI Travel

IRELAND

Figure 87: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Ireland, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Spending on foreign holidays down by 28% in Q1/2009

Destinations

Travel market

Budget Travel

ITALY

Figure 88: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Italy, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Figure 89: Italian outbound holiday trips, 2006-08

Figure 90: Italian outbound holiday trips, by destination and length of journey, 2008

Internet bookings up

Figure 91: Booking channel for outbound holiday trips, 2007/08

Travel market

Alpitour

Ventaglio

THE NETHERLANDS

Figure 92: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in the Netherlands, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Figure 93: Long outbound holiday trips, by destination in 2007

Over one million ski holidays

Travel market

OAD

Figure 94: OAD performance figures, 2005-08

TUI

2008 results

Figure 95: TUI Netherlands performance data, fiscal year 2007-08

Sales fell in winter 2008/09

Figure 96: TUI Netherlands - 2008/09 winter trading update at 30 April 2009

Half-year results - slightly less negative

But an accelerating downturn for the summer 2009…

Figure 97: TUI Netherlands - summer 2009 trading update at 10 May 2009

Thomas Cook

Other competitors: Vacansoleil, Sudtours & De Jong Intra Vakanties

NORDIC REGION

Figure 98: Market shares, by tour operator in the Nordic region mainstream air charter market, 2008

Figure 99: Key performance figures for Thomas cook, TUI and Kuoni in the Nordic market, 2008

Destinations

Figure 100: Thomas Cook market share by Nordic market outbound major destination, 2008

Thomas Cook

Figure 101: Thomas Cook Nordic’s concept hotels brands, 2008

TUI

Winter 2008/09 trading

Figure 102: TUI Nordic - 2008/09 winter trading update at 30 April 2009

Summer 2009 trading update

Figure 103: TUI Nordic - summer 2009 trading update at 10 May 2009

Kuoni Scandinavia

Primera Travel Group

Figure 104: Primera brands, by country, 2008

Denmark

Figure 105: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Denmark, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Travel market

Figure 106: Market shares by tour operator in Denmark, 2008

Kuoni has acquired Falk Lauritsen

Finland

Figure 107: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Finland, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Strong gains in Eastern Mediterranean and Bulgaria

Travel market

Figure 108: Market shares, by tour operator in Finland, 2008

Norway

Figure 109: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Norway, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Figure 110: Outbound holiday trips and spending, 2002-08

Travel market

Figure 111: Market shares, by tour operator in Norway, 2008

Sweden

Figure 112: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Sweden, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Travel market

Figure 113: Market shares, by tour operator in Sweden, 2008

Kuoni has purchased a Swedish golf specialist

RUSSIA

Figure 114: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Russia, 2009-19

Market characteristics

‘Sun and sand’ holidays

Cyprus and the Maghreb

Figure 115: Trend in Russian outbound holiday destinations, 2002-07

Travel market

Figure 116: Russian tour operators, 2006

TUI’s CIS market push

VKO Group

Voyage Kiev

Mostravel

SPAIN

Figure 117: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Spain, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Travel market

Iberostar

Globalia

2008 operating results

Figure 118: Breakdown of Globalia sales, by type, 2007-08

Packages stagnating

Figure 119: Trend in Globalia package sales, 2004-08

SWITZERLAND

Figure 120: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in Switzerland, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Travel market

Kuoni on the acquisition trail

Kuoni buys Eastern Adriatic specialist

Kuoni acquired Swiss education specialist

Cotravel

Hotelplan

TUI Switzerland

Figure 121: TUI Switzerland performance data, fiscal year 2007-08

Winter was down also…

Figure 122: TUI Switzerland - 2008/09 winter trading update at 30 April 2009

And summer looks worse…

Figure 123: TUI Switzerland - summer 2009 trading update at 10 May 2009

ITS Coop Travel

UK

Figure 124: Personal/incoming travel and tourism expenditure in UK, 2009-19

Market characteristics

Figure 125: UK residents' visits abroad, by year, 2004-08

Outbound travel hits a brick wall

Overseas expenditure

Figure 126: UK residents' visits abroad, three months and 12 months to May 2008 and May 2009

Travel market

The UK travel sector hard hit by insolvency

A silver lining?

Figure 127: Latest UK ATOL tour operator failures, 10 July 2009

Bedbank consolidation has altered the competitive landscape

TUI

Customer numbers down 8% in 2008

Sensatori

More holiday villages

Two new brochure concepts from First Choice for 2010

Winter 2008/09 trading update

Figure 128: TUI UK - charter - 2008/09 winter trading update at 30 April 2009

But sales will likely fall in summer 2009

Figure 129: TUI UK - charter - summer 2009 trading update at 10 May 2009

Thomas Cook

All-inclusive and ex-Eurozone in demand

Figure 130: Summer 2009 mainstream current trading, 10 May 2009

Cook has acquired Gold Medal

Gold Medal management team

Transaction cleared by the EU



TRENDS AND ISSUES IN THE EUROPEAN TRAVEL INDUSTRY

DISTRIBUTION

Figure 131: Trends in overall online travel market size, Europe 1998-2009

US still reserves a lot more online

UK accounted for 30% of Internet sales

Figure 132: Breakdown of online travel reservations in Europe, by country/region, 2006 and 2008

Spain and Italy lead European online travel growth

PhoCusWright’s conclusions sometimes at odds with Marcussen’s

Spain, the fastest-growing market

Italy faster than average growth

France - the second-largest market

Germany - 20% of bookings online

Scandinavia - almost half of bookings online

UK - still growing in double digits

Direct versus indirect

Online intermediaries increasing their share

Hotels a promising market

Figure 133: Trend in the proportion of direct versus indirect online travel sales in Europe, 1998-2008

Hotels up - packages down

Figure 134: Breakdown of online travel reservations in Europe, by type, 2006 and 2008

LCCs increase capacity to holiday destinations

Eight of the easyJet routes will operate from the UK

Ryanair’s 33rd European base

New routes from the Canaries

THE CRUISE BOOM CONTINUES

UK and Germany over half the market

Figure 135: Trend in cruise passengers, by European country, 2003-08

The fast-growing German cruise market

Sea cruises

Expectations for 2009

River cruise operators

Expectations for 2009

A warning signal on the horizon?

Travel agencies the main distribution channel

HOLIDAY RENTALS

ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Levels of acceptance vary



WHAT NEXT?

MORE TRAVEL FAILURES BY AUTUMN?

THOMAS COOK BACK IN BRITISH HANDS

TUI UNDER FINANCIAL DURESS FROM SHIPPING UNIT

SPACE TRAVEL ANYONE?

‘SpaceShipTwo’ and ‘WhiteKnightTwo’

Two hours to Sydney



INDEX TO TTI DESTINATION REPORTS

Country reports

City reports



INDEX TO TRAVEL & TOURISM ANALYST

Index grouped by geographic area



SPECIAL REPORTS INDEX

2003

2004

2005

2006

Abstract

This report constitutes an analysis of the European leisure travel industry with a primary focus on the role of the large tour operators. The report begins with a general discussion of the European travel market overall, including an overview of demographic and macroeconomic trends, as well as spending on travel and tourism and Internet penetration.



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