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Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.
Published: Sep. 1, 2009 - 113 Pages
Table of Contents
- SCOPE AND THEMES
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Figure 1: Fast casual companies comprising market size, by segment, 2009
- Changes to 2009 fast casual market size
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The challenge of a recession
- Fast casual same-store sales trends suggest trade out/trade down pressure
- Tapered growth still cause for celebration
- Competitive context
- Segment performance: Bread-based, ethnic, and traditional
- Restaurant brand qualities
- Panera Bread
- Chipotle
- Steak ‘n Shake
- Boston Market
- The united colors of fast casual
- Menu innovation
- Open the door wider: Ethnic is not just Mexican or Chinese
- Fast casual restaurant usage and usage frequency
- Fast casual restaurant selection factors
- Consumer healthfulness self-perceptions
- Quality, healthfulness and proximity comparisons to fast food
- Fast casual restaurant use by beverage attribute
- MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
- Key points
- Tapered growth still cause for celebration
- Same-store sales trends suggest trade out/trade down pressure
- Figure 2: Selected fast casual restaurant same-store sales growth trends, 2006-09
- Figure 3: Total U.S. fast casual sales and forecast, at current prices, 2004-12
- Figure 4: Total U.S. fast casual sales and forecast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-12
- COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
- Key points
- Can I have premium with my value?
- Premium and unexpected food items
- Breakfast, please
- QSR and coffeehouse beverage menus flex premium muscles
- And about that value
- Responding in kind
- While lines may be blurring, clear differences remain
- First things, first—a price difference, while smaller, still exists
- Figure 5: Average price per entrée, by restaurant segment, 2007, 2008, and 2009
- And fast casual leads on quality and healthfulness—at least its users think so
- Figure 6: Food attitudes, fast food versus fast casual, May 2009
- As for food and drink differences, the facts speak for themselves
- Figure 7: Top five cuisine types, by restaurant segment, Q1 2009
- Figure 8: Top 10 beverage types, by restaurant segment, Q1 2009
- SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
- Growth on the menu—whatever the cuisine
- Figure 9: U.S. sales of leading fast casual chains, by “food” segment, 2006-08
- SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—BREAD-BASED RESTAURANTS
- Key points
- Oh, to be a bread-based chain
- Figure 10: U.S. sales of leading bread-based fast casual chains, 2006 and 2008
- Au Bon Pain takes private equity money to the bank
- Jason’s Deli adds its voice to healthful marketing
- Einstein Bros. Bagels
- Bruegger’s on the upswing
- Cosi and Atlanta Bread on the downswing
- SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—ETHNIC RESTAURANTS
- Key points
- Approaching Hispanic cuisine from the inside out, and from the outside in
- Figure 11: U.S. sales of leading ethnic fast casual chains, 2006 and 2008
- Qdoba continues growth plans despite same-store sales declines
- Taco Cabana and Pollo Tropical: Hispanic brands with Hispanic intentions
- Pollo Tropical
- Figure 12: Pollo Tropical sales metrics, 2006-08
- Taco Cabana
- Figure 13: Taco Cabana sales metrics, 2006-08
- Going forward
- Figure 14: Pollo Tropical and Taco Cabana company-owned same-store sales, 2009
- Pei Wei—the Pan Asian alternative
- Rubio’s Fresh Mexican Grill: more than fish, but fish remains the core
- Figure 15: Rubio’s Fresh Mexican Grill same-store sales, 2006-08
- Going forward
- Moe’s Southwestern Grill
- SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—TRADITIONAL RESTAURANTS
- Key points
- Old traditionalists versus new traditionalists?
- Figure 16: U.S. sales of leading traditional fast casual chains, 2006 and 2008
- Buffalo Wild Wings floors the gas
- Figure 17: Buffalo Wild Wings sales metrics, 2007-09
- Zaxby’s stays true to roots
- Figure 18: Zaxby’s same-store sales growth trends, 2006-08
- MARKET DRIVERS
- Restaurant industry recession continues, but the bottom may be in sight
- Figure 19: Restaurant Performance Index, current situation, and expectations, May 2007-July 2009
- Consumer confidence undermines willingness to spend at restaurants
- Figure 20: Consumer Sentiment Index, by quarter, 2001-09
- Figure 21: Fast casual restaurant spend compared to last year, by selected demographics, May 2009
- Aggressive expansion plans a recession gamble
- Figure 22: Top five fast casual brands, by U.S. system-wide unit growth, 2007-08
- The united colors of fast casual
- RESTAURANT BRAND QUALITIES: PANERA BREAD
- Performance summary
- Figure 23: Panera Bread system-wide same-store sales growth trends, 2005-08
- The environment
- Panera users more apt to value healthfulness, quality, and customization “important” in an LSR
- Figure 24: Important limited service restaurant attributes, selected responses, Panera Bread Users, May 2009
- Panera users skew to affluence, female, suburbia, and blue-collar singles and couples
- Figure 25: Panera Bread top demographics and cohort groups, October 2007-December 2008
- On the menu
- Figure 26: Panera Bread, top five cuisine types, Q3 2007-Q2 2009
- Figure 27: Panera Bread, top five general marketing claims, Q3 2007-Q2 2009
- Bakery items, sandwiches, soups and salads rule the menu
- Figure 28: Panera Bread, new menu introductions, food, by menu course, Q2 2007-Q2 2009
- Growth trajectory: positive; conservative
- Figure 29: Panera Bread company-owned same-store sales growth trends, 2009
- RESTAURANT BRAND QUALITIES: CHIPOTLE
- Performance summary
- Figure 30: Chipotle company-owned same-store sales growth trends, 2006-08
- The environment
- Chipotle users more apt to value a variety of restaurant attributes “important” in an LSR
- Figure 31: Important limited service restaurant attributes, selected responses, Chipotle users, May 2009
- Youth, ethnic/racial diversity, and affluence are hallmarks of user base
- Figure 32: Chipotle top demographics and cohort groups, October 2007-December 2008
- On the menu
- Growth trajectory: positive, with slightly positive same-store growth and solid expansion
- Figure 33: Chipotle company-owned same-store sales growth trends, 2008 versus 2009
- RESTAURANT BRAND QUALITIES: STEAK ‘N SHAKE
- Performance summary
- Figure 34: Steak ‘n Shake company-owned same-store sales growth trends, 2007-08
- The environment
- When choosing an LSR, it’s more about the finding a specific kind of menu item
- Figure 35: Important limited service restaurant attributes, selected responses, Steak ‘n Shake users, May 2009
- Steak ‘n Shake: Racial and economic diversity at the table
- Figure 36: Steak ‘n Shake top demographics and cohort groups, October 2007-December 2008
- On the menu
- Leveraging the drive-thru
- Goodbye to 24/7
- Growth trajectory: Better days ahead?
- RESTAURANT BRAND QUALITIES: BOSTON MARKET
- Performance summary
- Important LSR factors: finding specific menu item and lower prices for group purchases
- Figure 37: Important limited service restaurant attributes, selected responses, Boston Market users, May 2009
- Blacks drive usage; leading usage economic and educational backgrounds vary widely
- Figure 38: Boston Market top demographics and cohort groups, October 2007-December 2008
- On the menu
- Growth trajectory: Positive, but conservative
- ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
- Overview
- Value message
- Baja Fresh definitely makes the “fresh” point
- Figure 39: Baja Fresh: freezers and microwaves or taco trio, September 2009
- Fazoli’s stakes brand image on anti-fast food
- Figure 40: Fast food is being blown away by Fazoli’s new menu, June 2009
- Fuddruckers—burgers “stacked high”
- Steak ‘n Shake introduces low cost meals options, supports with taste satisfaction
- Figure 41: Steak 'n Shake: good fresh meat, June 2009
- Zaxby’s lures with informal humor and relaxation
- Figure 42: Zaxby’s: boneless wings—knock ‘em back, January 2009
- Boston Market extols the value of chicken
- Figure 43: Boston Market: Twins love chicken, September 2008
- No low-cost proposition, just a quality message
- Jason’s Deli
- Panera Bread
- Qdoba Mexican Grill
- Figure 44: Qdoba: dancing vegetables create a Signature Burrito, June 2009
- Branding excitement
- INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS: ON THE MENU
- Key points
- Sophistication and healthfulness marketed hand in hand
- Figure 45: Top 10 general marketing claims, top fast casual restaurants, Q2 2007-Q2 2009
- If traditional American is the hub, ethnic/world flavors are the spokes
- Figure 46: Top five cuisine types, top fast casual restaurants, Q2 2007-Q2 2009
- New menu introductions reflect trends afoot
- Figure 47: New menu dish introductions, top fast casual restaurants, Q1 and Q2 2009
- Drilling down: Trending specific food menu introductions
- Figure 48: Menu innovation trends, fast casual chain participation, 2009
- Growing breakfast
- Building out from breakfast
- Adding a twist to traditional
- Going “mini”
- Comfort/hearty fare
- Going upscale
- Health and “unhealth”
- Au Bon Pain has been actively experimenting with “petite portions”
- Doing good: Bruegger's goes cage-free in D.C. and Corner Bakery stays local
- A decidedly diversified beverage selection
- Figure 49: Top 10 beverage types, top fast casual restaurants, Q2 2007-Q2 2009
- RESTAURANT USAGE OVERVIEW
- Key points
- Restaurant usage
- Figure 50: Restaurant usage in last year, by selected demographics, May 2009
- Restaurant usage, by segment
- Demographic analysis
- Figure 51: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by gender, May 2009
- Figure 52: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by selected HH income groups, May 2009
- Addendum: Consumer question explanation
- FAST CASUAL RESTAURANT USAGE AND USAGE FREQUENCY
- Key points
- Overview
- Figure 53: Fast casual usage and usage frequency, by restaurant, May 2009
- Demographic analysis
- Figure 54: Fast casual usage and usage frequency, top eight restaurants, by gender, May 2009
- Figure 55: Fast casual usage, top eight restaurants, by age, May 2009
- Figure 56: Fast casual usage and usage frequency, top eight restaurants, by HH income, May 2009
- FAST CASUAL RESTAURANT USAGE—RACE AND ETHNICITY
- Key points
- Fast casual usage by race/ethnicity
- Figure 57: Top seven fast casual usage, by race/ethnicity, October 2007-December 2008
- Acculturated versus non-acculturated Hispanics
- Figure 58: Top seven fast casual Hispanic usage, by degree of English spoken in home, October 2007-December 2008
- FAST CASUAL RESTAURANT SELECTION FACTORS
- Key points
- Section methodology
- 2008 versus 2009
- General food attributes
- Value and variety
- Where and what?
- Specific food choices
- Figure 59: “Important” reasons for selecting a fast casual restaurant, 2008-09
- General food attributes
- Figure 60: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, by age, May 2009
- Figure 61: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, by HH income, May 2009
- Value and variety
- Figure 62: Fast casual selection factors—value and variety, by gender, May 2009
- Figure 63: Fast casual selection factors—value and variety, by age, May 2009
- Where and what?
- Figure 64: Fast casual selection factors—where and what, by gender, May 2009
- Specific food choices
- Figure 65: Fast casual selection factors— specific food choices, by age, May 2009
- Figure 66: Fast casual selection factors—specific food choices, by ethnicity, May 2009
- CONSUMER HEALTHFULNESS SELF-PERCEPTIONS
- Key points
- Health: consumers’ perceptions
- Figure 67: Consumer diet self-perceptions, degree of healthfulness, May 2009
- Figure 68: Importance of eating healthfully, degree of importance, May 2009
- Figure 69: Restaurant segment usage, by diet healthfulness, May 2009
- QUALITY, HEALTHFULNESS AND PROXIMITY COMPARISONS TO FAST FOOD
- Key points
- Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants
- Figure 70: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, 2008-2009
- Figure 71: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by age, May 2009
- Figure 72: Competitive attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by HH income, May 2009
- APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
AbstractEntertainment on the menu
Note: section content has been excerpted and adapted from Eating Ethnic: Trends in Ethnic Cuisine on the Menu, a May 2009 Mintel Menu Insights Trend Report, which offers additional insights on fast casual dining trends.
The fast casual segment has thrived because—in a nutshell—it enhanced the fast food experience. It grew by giving patrons more: more choice (cuisines, flavors, beverages, and customization), more quality, and more atmosphere. To continue to differentiate itself from fast food competitors that are creeping up on them with improved but competitively priced products, the segment needs to continue innovating on the very things that brought them success in the first place.
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