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Fast Casual Restaurants - US

Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.

Published: Sep. 1, 2009 - 113 Pages


Table of Contents


SCOPE AND THEMES

What you need to know

Definition

Figure 1: Fast casual companies comprising market size, by segment, 2009

Changes to 2009 fast casual market size

Data sources

Sales data

Mintel Menu Insights

Consumer survey data

Advertising creative

Abbreviations and terms

Abbreviations

Terms



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The challenge of a recession

Fast casual same-store sales trends suggest trade out/trade down pressure

Tapered growth still cause for celebration

Competitive context

Segment performance: Bread-based, ethnic, and traditional

Restaurant brand qualities

Panera Bread

Chipotle

Steak ‘n Shake

Boston Market

The united colors of fast casual

Menu innovation

Open the door wider: Ethnic is not just Mexican or Chinese

Fast casual restaurant usage and usage frequency

Fast casual restaurant selection factors

Consumer healthfulness self-perceptions

Quality, healthfulness and proximity comparisons to fast food

Fast casual restaurant use by beverage attribute



MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST

Key points

Tapered growth still cause for celebration

Same-store sales trends suggest trade out/trade down pressure

Figure 2: Selected fast casual restaurant same-store sales growth trends, 2006-09

Figure 3: Total U.S. fast casual sales and forecast, at current prices, 2004-12

Figure 4: Total U.S. fast casual sales and forecast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-12



COMPETITIVE CONTEXT

Key points

Can I have premium with my value?

Premium and unexpected food items

Breakfast, please

QSR and coffeehouse beverage menus flex premium muscles

And about that value…

Responding in kind

While lines may be blurring, clear differences remain

First things, first—a price difference, while smaller, still exists

Figure 5: Average price per entrée, by restaurant segment, 2007, 2008, and 2009

And fast casual leads on quality and healthfulness—at least its users think so

Figure 6: Food attitudes, fast food versus fast casual, May 2009

As for food and drink differences, the facts speak for themselves

Figure 7: Top five cuisine types, by restaurant segment, Q1 2009

Figure 8: Top 10 beverage types, by restaurant segment, Q1 2009



SEGMENT PERFORMANCE

Growth on the menu—whatever the cuisine

Figure 9: U.S. sales of leading fast casual chains, by “food” segment, 2006-08



SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—BREAD-BASED RESTAURANTS

Key points

Oh, to be a bread-based chain

Figure 10: U.S. sales of leading bread-based fast casual chains, 2006 and 2008

Au Bon Pain takes private equity money to the bank

Jason’s Deli adds its voice to healthful marketing

Einstein Bros. Bagels

Bruegger’s on the upswing

Cosi and Atlanta Bread on the downswing



SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—ETHNIC RESTAURANTS

Key points

Approaching Hispanic cuisine from the inside out, and from the outside in

Figure 11: U.S. sales of leading ethnic fast casual chains, 2006 and 2008

Qdoba continues growth plans despite same-store sales declines

Taco Cabana and Pollo Tropical: Hispanic brands with Hispanic intentions

Pollo Tropical

Figure 12: Pollo Tropical sales metrics, 2006-08

Taco Cabana

Figure 13: Taco Cabana sales metrics, 2006-08

Going forward

Figure 14: Pollo Tropical and Taco Cabana company-owned same-store sales, 2009

Pei Wei—the Pan Asian alternative

Rubio’s Fresh Mexican Grill: more than fish, but fish remains the core

Figure 15: Rubio’s Fresh Mexican Grill same-store sales, 2006-08

Going forward

Moe’s Southwestern Grill



SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—TRADITIONAL RESTAURANTS

Key points

Old traditionalists versus new traditionalists?

Figure 16: U.S. sales of leading traditional fast casual chains, 2006 and 2008

Buffalo Wild Wings floors the gas

Figure 17: Buffalo Wild Wings sales metrics, 2007-09

Zaxby’s stays true to roots

Figure 18: Zaxby’s same-store sales growth trends, 2006-08



MARKET DRIVERS

Restaurant industry recession continues, but the bottom may be in sight

Figure 19: Restaurant Performance Index, current situation, and expectations, May 2007-July 2009

Consumer confidence undermines willingness to spend at restaurants

Figure 20: Consumer Sentiment Index, by quarter, 2001-09

Figure 21: Fast casual restaurant spend compared to last year, by selected demographics, May 2009

Aggressive expansion plans a recession gamble

Figure 22: Top five fast casual brands, by U.S. system-wide unit growth, 2007-08

The united colors of fast casual



RESTAURANT BRAND QUALITIES: PANERA BREAD

Performance summary

Figure 23: Panera Bread system-wide same-store sales growth trends, 2005-08

The environment

Panera users more apt to value healthfulness, quality, and customization “important” in an LSR

Figure 24: Important limited service restaurant attributes, selected responses, Panera Bread Users, May 2009

Panera users skew to affluence, female, suburbia, and blue-collar singles and couples

Figure 25: Panera Bread top demographics and cohort groups, October 2007-December 2008

On the menu

Figure 26: Panera Bread, top five cuisine types, Q3 2007-Q2 2009

Figure 27: Panera Bread, top five general marketing claims, Q3 2007-Q2 2009

Bakery items, sandwiches, soups and salads rule the menu

Figure 28: Panera Bread, new menu introductions, food, by menu course, Q2 2007-Q2 2009

Growth trajectory: positive; conservative

Figure 29: Panera Bread company-owned same-store sales growth trends, 2009



RESTAURANT BRAND QUALITIES: CHIPOTLE

Performance summary

Figure 30: Chipotle company-owned same-store sales growth trends, 2006-08

The environment

Chipotle users more apt to value a variety of restaurant attributes “important” in an LSR

Figure 31: Important limited service restaurant attributes, selected responses, Chipotle users, May 2009

Youth, ethnic/racial diversity, and affluence are hallmarks of user base

Figure 32: Chipotle top demographics and cohort groups, October 2007-December 2008

On the menu

Growth trajectory: positive, with slightly positive same-store growth and solid expansion

Figure 33: Chipotle company-owned same-store sales growth trends, 2008 versus 2009



RESTAURANT BRAND QUALITIES: STEAK ‘N SHAKE

Performance summary

Figure 34: Steak ‘n Shake company-owned same-store sales growth trends, 2007-08

The environment

When choosing an LSR, it’s more about the finding a specific kind of menu item

Figure 35: Important limited service restaurant attributes, selected responses, Steak ‘n Shake users, May 2009

Steak ‘n Shake: Racial and economic diversity at the table

Figure 36: Steak ‘n Shake top demographics and cohort groups, October 2007-December 2008

On the menu

Leveraging the drive-thru

Goodbye to 24/7

Growth trajectory: Better days ahead?



RESTAURANT BRAND QUALITIES: BOSTON MARKET

Performance summary

Important LSR factors: finding specific menu item and lower prices for group purchases

Figure 37: Important limited service restaurant attributes, selected responses, Boston Market users, May 2009

Blacks drive usage; leading usage economic and educational backgrounds vary widely

Figure 38: Boston Market top demographics and cohort groups, October 2007-December 2008

On the menu

Growth trajectory: Positive, but conservative



ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

Overview

Value message

Baja Fresh definitely makes the “fresh” point

Figure 39: Baja Fresh: freezers and microwaves or taco trio, September 2009

Fazoli’s stakes brand image on anti-fast food

Figure 40: Fast food is being blown away by Fazoli’s new menu, June 2009

Fuddruckers—burgers “stacked high”

Steak ‘n Shake introduces low cost meals options, supports with taste satisfaction

Figure 41: Steak 'n Shake: good fresh meat, June 2009

Zaxby’s lures with informal humor and relaxation

Figure 42: Zaxby’s: boneless wings—knock ‘em back, January 2009

Boston Market extols the value of chicken

Figure 43: Boston Market: Twins love chicken, September 2008

No low-cost proposition, just a quality message

Jason’s Deli

Panera Bread

Qdoba Mexican Grill

Figure 44: Qdoba: dancing vegetables create a Signature Burrito, June 2009

Branding excitement



INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS: ON THE MENU

Key points

Sophistication and healthfulness marketed hand in hand

Figure 45: Top 10 general marketing claims, top fast casual restaurants, Q2 2007-Q2 2009

If traditional American is the hub, ethnic/world flavors are the spokes

Figure 46: Top five cuisine types, top fast casual restaurants, Q2 2007-Q2 2009

New menu introductions reflect trends afoot

Figure 47: New menu dish introductions, top fast casual restaurants, Q1 and Q2 2009

Drilling down: Trending specific food menu introductions

Figure 48: Menu innovation trends, fast casual chain participation, 2009

Growing breakfast

Building out from breakfast

Adding a twist to traditional

Going “mini”

Comfort/hearty fare

Going upscale

Health and “unhealth”

Au Bon Pain has been actively experimenting with “petite portions”

Doing good: Bruegger's goes cage-free in D.C. and Corner Bakery stays local

A decidedly diversified beverage selection

Figure 49: Top 10 beverage types, top fast casual restaurants, Q2 2007-Q2 2009



RESTAURANT USAGE OVERVIEW

Key points

Restaurant usage

Figure 50: Restaurant usage in last year, by selected demographics, May 2009

Restaurant usage, by segment

Demographic analysis

Figure 51: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by gender, May 2009

Figure 52: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by selected HH income groups, May 2009

Addendum: Consumer question explanation



FAST CASUAL RESTAURANT USAGE AND USAGE FREQUENCY

Key points

Overview

Figure 53: Fast casual usage and usage frequency, by restaurant, May 2009

Demographic analysis

Figure 54: Fast casual usage and usage frequency, top eight restaurants, by gender, May 2009

Figure 55: Fast casual usage, top eight restaurants, by age, May 2009

Figure 56: Fast casual usage and usage frequency, top eight restaurants, by HH income, May 2009



FAST CASUAL RESTAURANT USAGE—RACE AND ETHNICITY

Key points

Fast casual usage by race/ethnicity

Figure 57: Top seven fast casual usage, by race/ethnicity, October 2007-December 2008

Acculturated versus non-acculturated Hispanics

Figure 58: Top seven fast casual Hispanic usage, by degree of English spoken in home, October 2007-December 2008



FAST CASUAL RESTAURANT SELECTION FACTORS

Key points

Section methodology

2008 versus 2009

General food attributes

Value and variety

Where and what?

Specific food choices

Figure 59: “Important” reasons for selecting a fast casual restaurant, 2008-09

General food attributes

Figure 60: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, by age, May 2009

Figure 61: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, by HH income, May 2009

Value and variety

Figure 62: Fast casual selection factors—value and variety, by gender, May 2009

Figure 63: Fast casual selection factors—value and variety, by age, May 2009

Where and what?

Figure 64: Fast casual selection factors—where and what, by gender, May 2009

Specific food choices

Figure 65: Fast casual selection factors— specific food choices, by age, May 2009

Figure 66: Fast casual selection factors—specific food choices, by ethnicity, May 2009



CONSUMER HEALTHFULNESS SELF-PERCEPTIONS

Key points

Health: consumers’ perceptions

Figure 67: Consumer diet self-perceptions, degree of healthfulness, May 2009

Figure 68: Importance of eating healthfully, degree of importance, May 2009

Figure 69: Restaurant segment usage, by diet healthfulness, May 2009



QUALITY, HEALTHFULNESS AND PROXIMITY COMPARISONS TO FAST FOOD

Key points

Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants

Figure 70: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, 2008-2009

Figure 71: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by age, May 2009

Figure 72: Competitive attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by HH income, May 2009



APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

Abstract

Entertainment on the menu

Note: section content has been excerpted and adapted from Eating Ethnic: Trends in Ethnic Cuisine on the Menu, a May 2009 Mintel Menu Insights Trend Report, which offers additional insights on fast casual dining trends.

The fast casual segment has thrived because—in a nutshell—it enhanced the fast food experience. It grew by giving patrons more: more choice (cuisines, flavors, beverages, and customization), more quality, and more atmosphere. To continue to differentiate itself from fast food competitors that are creeping up on them with improved but competitively priced products, the segment needs to continue innovating on the very things that brought them success in the first place.



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