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Poland Information Technology Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Oct. 15, 2009 - 51 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractMarket OverviewPoland is expected to maintain its status as one of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region'sfastest growing IT markets over the 2009-2013 forecast period, thanks largely to EU funding forinformation and communication technology (ICT)-related initiatives. The size of the Polish IT market isestimated to increase from US$7.6bn in 2009 to around US$10.7bn in 2013. The current global economicheadwinds will mean slower growth in 2009 and 2010 compared with the 2006-2008 trend level. Polish consumer spending held up better than expected in H109, despite deteriorating consumerconfidence, and Poland looks well positioned to be one of the regional markets less affected by currenteconomic trends. However, some IT vendors revised their financial projections as Polish consumersdeferred purchases and companies cut expenditure. Despite the more challenging trading conditions, BMI still expects growth in many IT market segmentsover the next few years, particularly as EU funds support new public sector IT initiatives. Government ITspending will continue, even if some projects are delayed into 2010. The IT market is expected to grow ata CAGR of 9% between 2009 and 2013, with IT services driving double-digit growth for the sector as awhole. Industry Developments Poland's National IT Infrastructure Plan for 2007-2013 was formally adopted by the government in 2008,following a public sector IT spending slowdown in preceding years. In 2008 new funding drove a seriesof tenders, with the information technology component to be worth nearly EUR1bn. According toPoland's National IT Infrastructure Plan, some 75% of funds spent on government IT projects over thenext five years is expected to come from the EU. BMI forecasts that wireless internet access will grow rapidly during 2009. Poland's broadband operatorsare also encouraging xDSL and cable-based broadband take-up by offering new innovative services, suchas IPTV, video on demand (VOD) and VoIP in double- and triple-play packages. Such services willencourage subscriptions and drive spending on computers and other household electronics products. Competitive Landscape In H109, Dell said that it would move its European manufacturing base from Ireland to Poland and cut1,900 out of 3,000 jobs at its Limerick plant. Previously there had been speculation that US giant Dellplanned to dispose of a number of production facilities in Poland. This was despite the fact that Dell'slatest plant in Poland was launched only in January 2008, with Dell spending EUR200mn to reducesupply time to European clients. Meanwhile, in May 2009, IBM signed a contact with the Ministry of Science and Education that providedfor the establishment of an IBM research centre in Wroclaw. Wroclaw is also the among locationscompeting for a new IBM service centre, which is expected to create 3,000 new jobs. In 2008 IBMincluded Poland for the first time in its list of key exceptionally high-growth developing countries. Computer Sales Poland's computer hardware sales are projected at US$3.1bn in 2009 and are forecast to reach aroundUS$4.1bn in 2013. The Polish addressable market for computers is estimated at around 2.9mn units soldin 2009, and this annual total could increase to 5.3mn by the end of BMI's forecast period. Despite someencouraging indications in Q209, H209 is likely to be a more difficult year because of the impact of theglobal financial crisis. PC penetration reached around 50% in 2008, and BMI projects that it could reach 70% by 2013. Fallingprices of both desktops and notebooks have been a major growth driver for the hardware market, alongwith EU aid and overall economic recovery. Research has revealed that Poles are starting to purchasemore high-end computers. Software The software market is projected to be worth US$1.7bn in 2009 and is likely to grow to US$2.4bn by2013, giving a CAGR of 10%. Even before the economic slowdown there were signs that the largecompany market for basic enterprise resource planning (ERP) software was becoming saturated. This hasencouraged vendors to target growth from upgrades to existing clients, as well as sales to smallercompanies. Rising computer penetration in the enterprise sector has driven continued growth, despite thesoftware piracy issue. The procurement of basic software packages such as ERP still accounts for about half of enterprisesoftware spending, particularly in the manufacturing sector. However, vendors are increasingly focusedon more specialised applications, such as customer relationship management (CRM) and businessintelligence, where faster growth is possible. IT Services IT services spending, projected at US$3.0bn in 2009, is the fastest growing sector of the IT market and isexpected to rise to US$4.3bn by 2013. In 2009 vendors are expected to benefit from IT projects tenderedacross sectors ranging from universities to banks and financial institutions, utilities and the public sector.However, overall spending growth is expected to decelerate. With a larger installed IT base, acceptance of the need for IT services is spreading through manyorganisations. While systems integration and hardware and software support and installation stillcollectively account for more than one-half of total IT spending, outsourcing has become the fastestgrowing segment. E-Readiness The internet market continues to be constrained by high telephone charges and relatively low levels ofcomputer penetration. Moreover, there are wide regional disparities, with internet penetration about twiceas high in urban as in rural areas. A recent Forrester survey revealed that, while overall online banking uptake and PC availabilityremained low, Polish internet consumers already matched southern Europeans in buying online. Polandeven outperformed Spain, with 30% of online consumers having previously purchased something online,compared with just 29% in Spain. How broadband will develop in the longer term will greatly depend on the Polish regulator's success atforcing TPSA into a functional split, as well as its continued liberalisation of the market. The regulatorbelieves that the split will happen in 2010 or 2011, but there are high risks that it could be delayed longerthan this. How wireless technologies are deployed to the rural regions will also be a major factor in theproliferation of broadband. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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