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Commercial Insight: Antidiabetics - DPP-IV inhibitors poised to sweep the market

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Oct. 2, 2009 - 35 Pages


Table of Contents


ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
About the Cardiovascular and Metabolic pharmaceutical analysis team
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Datamonitor insight into the disease market
Related reports
Upcoming related reports
CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION
Market definition for this report
CHAPTER 3 MARKET OVERVIEW
Seven major markets
Current market overview
Total antidiabetic market
Insulin therapies
Non-insulin therapies
The US dominates the antidiabetic market
Historical events
Future seven major markets assessment
Future events
Antidiabetics market assessment
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats
US
Current and future market assessment
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats
Japan
Current and future market assessment
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats
Five major European markets (5EU)
Current and future market assessment
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats
Rest of the world snapshot
Current market assessment
CHAPTER 4 BRAND DYNAMICS
Overview of competitive landscape
US formulary tier status for leading brands
Actos franchise (pioglitazone; Takeda)
Drug profile
Franchise overview
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Brand forecast to 2018
Avandia franchise (rosiglitazone; GlaxoSmithKline)
Drug profile
Franchise overview
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Brand forecast to 2018
Byetta franchise (exenatide; Amylin/Eli Lilly)
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Brand forecast to 2018
Januvia franchise (sitagliptin; Merck & Co)
Drug profile
Franchise overview
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Brand forecast to 2018
Lantus (insulin glargine; Sanofi-Aventis)
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Brand forecast to 2018
NovoMix (insulin aspart + insulin aspart protamine; Novo Nordisk)
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Brand forecast to 2018
NovoRapid (insulin aspart; Novo Nordisk)
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Brand forecast to 2018
CHAPTER 5 KEY DEVELOPERS
Strategic overview
Trends in corporate strategy
Novo Nordisk
Specialization in insulin reaps rewards
Education targeting physicians.
Support services for patients
Product development
Portfolio assessment
Takeda
Marketing leading position compromised by missed opportunities
Key successes
Tactical errors
Portfolio assessment
Merck & Co
Rigorous clinical development and chance propel Merck to success
Portfolio assessment
Portfolio assessment of other leading companies
CHAPTER 6 CASE STUDIES
Introduction
Base forecast
Scenario 1 - Early Victoza approval
Scenario 2 - Extended Victoza delay impacts the whole class
Scenario 3 - Thyroid cancer seen as class effect and no approvals granted
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites
Datamonitor reports
APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
New product launches
Patent expiries
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
Standard units
Country group definitions
Rest of European Union
Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
Rest of World
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
Forecast methodology
APPENDIX B
Contributing experts
Report methodology
About Datamonitor
About Datamonitor Healthcare
About the Diabetes analysis team
Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Antidiabetic sales in the seven major markets by class, 2008-2018
Table 2: Key events impacting the antidiabetics market, 2009-2018
Table 3: Sales forecasts in diabetes in the 7MM ($000s), 2008-2018
Table 4: Projected and forecast adult obesity prevalence (million) in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Table 5: Summary of opportunities and threats in the antidiabetic market across the seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 6: Antidiabetic sales in the US market by class, 2008-2018
Table 7: US antidiabetic sales forecasts ($000s), 2008-2018
Table 8: Three generics companies are among the top 10 companies in terms of prescriptions filled under Medicare Part D, 2006
Table 9: Antidiabetic sales in Japan by class, 2008-2018
Table 10: Antidiabetic revenue forecasts in Japan ($000s), 2008-2018
Table 11: Antidiabetic sales in the five major EU markets by class, 2008-2018
Table 12: Sales forecasts in diabetes in the five major EU markets ($000s), 2008-2018
Table 13: Comparison of leading branded drug sales ($m) for antidiabetics in the seven major markets and the Total rest of the world (TROW), 2008
Table 14: Leading antidiabetic branded drug sales ($m), 2008-2018
Table 15: Key products in late-stage R&D pipeline for antidiabetics, 2009
Table 16: Representative formulary tier status in the US for leading antidiabetic therapies, 2009
Table 17: Actos: key facts
Table 18: Actoplus met: key facts
Table 19: Actoplus met XR: key facts
Table 20: Duetact: key facts
Table 21: Glitazone fixed dose combinations, 2009
Table 22: Sales forecast ($m) for the Actos franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Table 23: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Actos franchise, 2008-2018
Table 24: Avandia: key facts
Table 25: Avandamet: key facts
Table 26: Avandaryl: key facts
Table 27: Sales forecast ($m) for the Avandia franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Table 28: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Avandia franchise, 2008-2018
Table 29: Byetta: key facts
Table 30: DURATION-2 clinical data with active comparator prescription data
Table 31: Revenue forecast ($m) for Byetta for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Table 32: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Byetta franchise, 2008-2018
Table 33: Januvia: key facts
Table 34: Janumet: key facts
Table 35: Clinical profile of approved dipeptidyl peptidase-IV inhibitors, 2009
Table 36: Revenue forecast ($m) for the Januvia franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Table 37: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Januvia franchise, 2008-2018
Table 38: Lantus: key facts
Table 39: Sales forecast ($m) for Lantus for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Table 40: Impacting factors on the revenues of Lantus, 2008-2018
Table 41: NovoMix: key facts
Table 42: Revenue forecast ($m) for NovoMix for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Table 43: Impacting factors on the revenues of NovoMix, 2008-2018
Table 44: NovoRapid: key facts
Table 45: Sales forecast ($m) for NovoRapid for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Table 46: Impacting factors on the revenues of NovoRapid, 2008-2018
Table 47: Leading companies in the seven major market antidiabetic market, 2008-2018
Table 48: Big Pharma in-licensing deals in the antidiabetic market, 2000-08
Table 49: Novo Nordisk's portfolio, 1987-2009
Table 50: Takeda's antidiabetics portfolio, 2009
Table 51: Merck & Co's antidiabetic pipeline, 2009
Table 52: Glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists - launched and developmental candidates, 2009
Table 53: New antidiabetic product launches, 2008-2018
Table 54: Patent expiry dates for the approved antidiabetics in the seven major markets, 2007-2016
List of Figures
Figure 1: Antidiabetic sales in the US, five major EU and Japan markets, ($ billion), 2005-08
Figure 2: Antidiabetics market sales by class in the seven major markets, 2005-08
Figure 3: Sales performance of the US, five major EU and Japanese antidiabetic markets, 2007-08
Figure 4: Units sold performance of the US, five major EU and Japanese antidiabetic markets, 2007-08
Figure 5: Key events impacting the antidiabetic market 2005-2008
Figure 6: Antidiabetic revenues ($m) by country, 2006-2018
Figure 7: Diabetes sales by class in the seven major markets, 2006-2018
Figure 8: Antidiabetic revenues ($m) and growth (% CAGR) by region, 2005-2018
Figure 9: Market share of antidiabetic drug classes in the seven major markets, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 10: Leading antidiabetic brands in the seven major markets, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 11: Revenues of leading oral antidiabetic classes in the seven major markets, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 12: Units sold of leading oral antidiabetic classes in the seven major markets, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 13: The most widely prescribed oral antidiabetics in the six major markets, 2018
Figure 14: The most widely prescribed oral antidiabetics in the six major markets, 2008
Figure 15: Revenues of most widely prescribed oral molecules in the six major markets, 2018
Figure 16: Revenues of most widely prescribed oral molecules in the six major markets, 2008
Figure 17: Change in oral antidiabetic revenue market share of most widely used therapies in the six major markets, 2008-2018
Figure 18: Change in oral antidiabetic market share of most widely used therapies in the six major markets, 2008-2018
Figure 19: Generalized distribution chain for parallel traded pharmaceutical products
Figure 20: Antidiabetic revenues by class in the US, 2008-2018
Figure 21: US market share of antidiabetic drug classes, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 22: Leading US antidiabetic brands, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 23: Revenues of leading US oral antidiabetic classes, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 24: Units sold of leading US oral antidiabetic classes, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 25: The most widely prescribed US oral antidiabetics, 2018
Figure 26: The most widely prescribed US oral antidiabetics, 2008
Figure 27: Revenues of most widely prescribed US oral antidiabetics, 2018
Figure 28: Revenues of most widely prescribed US oral antidiabetics, 2008
Figure 29: Generic use in the US is promoted through a number of channels
Figure 30: Key pressures facing drug developers, 1990-2004
Figure 31: Antidiabetic revenues by class in Japan, 2008-2018
Figure 32: Antidiabetic drug classes revenue market share in Japan, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 33: Leading antidiabetic brands in Japan, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 34: Revenues of leading oral antidiabetic classes in Japan, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 35: Units sold of leading oral antidiabetic classes in Japan, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 36: The most widely prescribed oral antidiabetics in Japan, 2018
Figure 37: The most widely prescribed oral antidiabetics in Japan, 2008
Figure 38: Revenues of most widely prescribed oral antidiabetics in Japan, 2018
Figure 39: Revenues of most widely prescribed oral antidiabetics in Japan, 2008
Figure 40: Antidiabetic revenues by class in the five major EU markets, 2008-2018
Figure 41: Antidiabetic drug classes revenue market share in the five major EU markets, 2008 vs. 2018
Figure 42: Leading antidiabetic brands in the five major EU markets, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 43: Revenues of leading oral antidiabetic classes in the five major EU markets, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 44: Units sold of leading oral antidiabetic classes in the five major EU markets, 2008 vs 2018
Figure 45: The most widely prescribed oral antidiabetics in the five major EU markets, 2018
Figure 46: The most widely prescribed oral antidiabetics in the five major EU markets, 2008
Figure 47: Revenues of most widely prescribed oral antidiabetics in the five major EU markets, 2018
Figure 48: Revenues of most widely prescribed oral antidiabetics in the five major EU markets, 2008
Figure 49: Total rest of the world vs seven major market revenue split in antidiabetics ($m), 2008
Figure 50: Indexed annual revenues of the antidiabetics market in the 'total rest of the world' group, 2005-08
Figure 51: Indexed annual revenues of the antidiabetics market in the 'total rest of the world' group, segmented by class, 2005-08
Figure 52: Brand split in the Actos franchise in the seven major markets, 2005 and 2008
Figure 53: Brand split in the Actos franchise in national markets, 2005
Figure 54: Brand split in the Actos franchise in national markets, 2008
Figure 55: Actos franchise SWOT analysis, 2009
Figure 56: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Actos franchise in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Figure 57: US glitazone market share, Q1 2007-Q4 2008
Figure 58: US market share within the Avandia franchise, Q1 2007-Q4 2008
Figure 59: Response to Avandia meta-analysis, Q1 2007-Q4 2008
Figure 60: Brand split in the Avandia franchise in the seven major markets, 2005 and 2008
Figure 61: Brand split in the Avandia franchise in the seven major markets by country, 2005
Figure 62: Brand split in the Avandia franchise in the seven major markets by country, 2008
Figure 63: Avandia franchise SWOT analysis, 2009
Figure 64: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Avandia franchise in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Figure 65: Byetta franchise SWOT analysis, 2009
Figure 66: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Byetta franchise in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Figure 67: Januvia franchise SWOT analysis, 2009
Figure 68: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Januvia franchise in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Figure 69: Lantus SWOT analysis, 2009
Figure 70: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Lantus in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Figure 71: NovoMix SWOT analysis, 2009
Figure 72: Antidiabetic revenues ($m) forecast for NovoMix in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Figure 73: NovoRapid SWOT analysis, 2009
Figure 74: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for NovoRapid in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Figure 75: Development timeline for Januvia and Galvus, 1995-2008
Figure 76: Datamonitor's forecast of the US glucagon-like peptide-1 agonist market, 2008-2018
Figure 77: Scenario 1 - Early Victoza approval in diabetes, 2008-2018
Figure 78: Scenario 2 - Delayed Victoza launch impacts whole Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonist class in diabetes, 2008-2018
Figure 79: Scenario 3 - Thyroid cancer seen as Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonist class effect in diabetes , 2008-2018
Figure 80: Increase in dapagliflozin revenues as a result of Scenario 3 in diabetes, 2008-2018

Abstract

Introduction

Datamonitor expects the antidiabetics market to reach $38 billion, across the seven major markets, by 2018. The growth will be driven by the launch of new drug classes, notably the DPP-IV inhibitors and GLP-1 agonists, and large growth in patient numbers. However, patent expiries of the glitazone (TZDs) class will restrain market growth.

Scope
  • Description of the competitive landscape in antidiabetics across seven major markets with market definition and overview.
  • Event-driven updated sales forecasts for 2009-18 across the seven major markets: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and Japan.
  • Analysis of major events and brand dynamics affecting the diabetes market.
Highlights

The antidiabetics market in the seven major markets is expected to grow from $20 billion in 2007 to $38 billion in 2018 at a rate of 6.5% CAGR. Significant unmet needs remain in diabetes fueling a large pipeline. The epidemiological growth of the market, driven by the obesity epidemic and improved diagnosis rates, is further driving the market.

In 2008, four major insulin therapies dominated the insulin market. This situation is not expected to change throughout the forecast period as there is very limited activity within the insulin antidiabetic pipeline and no serious challenges to the market leading therapies.

The strong market position of Avandia in 2007 has all but been destroyed by a meta-analysis published in mid-2007 and despite GlaxoSmithKline publishing positive data from the RECORD clinical trial in 2009 the drug will not regain market share before its patent expiry.

Reasons to Purchase
  • Quantify the future size of the antidiabetics market and identify opportunities for new products.
  • Learn how product expiries will shape the antidiabetics market.
  • Understand the barriers to uptake for novel antidiabetic agents, and the implications of recent regulatory reviews.
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