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India Mining Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Oct. 7, 2009 - 93 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
India Political SWOT
India Economic SWOT
India Business Environment SWOT
Special Focus: Outlook For Global Mining
Table: Biggest Chinese Acquisitions In Australia Since 2005
Table: Global Mining - Top Five Companies By Market Capitalisation (US$mn)
Table: Global Mining - Key Players’ Future Investment Plans (selected projects)
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Latest Developments
Table: Mines In India
Key Projects
Iron
Coal
Table: State’s Coal Resources, 2007 (mn tonnes)
Gold
Copper
Lead, Zinc And Silver
Diamonds
Uranium
Bauxite And Alumina
Mining Business Environment
Regional Overview - Asia Pacific
Table: Regional Mining Business Environment Ratings
India - Business Environment Ranking
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Legal Framework
Table: BMI Legal Framework Ratings
Labour Force
Table: Demographic Indicators
Foreign Investment Policy
Table: India’s Annual FDI Inflows
Table: Asia’s FDI Inflows
Political Environment
Industry Forecast Scenario
Metal Prices Outlook
Aluminium To Average US$1,700/tonne In 2009
Table: BMI Aluminium Forecast
Table: Aluminium
Copper To Average US$4,800/tonne In 2009
Table: BMI Copper Forecast
Table: Copper
Commodities Forecast - Gold To Average US$920.00/oz In 2009
Table: BMI Gold Forecast
Global Industry Overview
Regional Analysis
India - Mining Industry Forecast
Table: India’s Mining Industry - Data and Forecast, 2006 - 2013
Competitive Landscape
Table: India Mining - Key Players
Company Monitor
Coal India (CIL)
National Mineral Development Corp (NMDC)
Vedanta Resources
Hindustan Copper (HCL)
Appendices
Global Assumptions
Table: BMI’s Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Key Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average against US dollar)
Appendix B: Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Overview
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components

Abstract

India is a country rich in natural resources, with around 24 different minerals including bauxite, copper,iron, gold, lead, manganese and coal occurring in almost half of the county’s total land mass of 3.2mnsquare kilometres. Despite being resource rich, a lack of updated infrastructure, labour restrictions andgovernment red tape is preventing India from establishing itself as a mining country in the same league asits counterparts overseas. However, developments are in place to attract private investment from foreignand domestic countries and India is poised for significant growth within its mining sector over the comingyears.

In July 2009, Reuters reported that the country had experienced an 18% rise in iron ore exports during themonth of May compared with the previous year to 10.607mn tonnes according to data collated from bythe Federation of Indian Mineral Industries. This was an encouraging increase from the fall in April’sexports by 20.6% to 9.157mn tonnes. Approximately half of India’s annual production of iron ore;approximately 200mn tonnes, is exported with a significant proportion of exports arriving in China.Exports for the fiscal year ending March 09 were up slightly by 1.4% to 105.764mn tonnes.

The annual budget, announced in July 2009 contained measures which would have significant impact onthe gold bullion industry. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced that tax would be reimposed ongold, as well as an increase on gold and silver customs duty. Import duty would be increased fromINR100 per 10g to INR200 per 10g. The announcement was expected to further impact the fallingimports of gold into India which had been decreasing since the beginning of the year. In July 2009imports of gold into India were down 75% to just 51 tonnes for H102which had been mostly affected bythe increase in price of the commodity and scrap sales of gold. There was a stark contrast between theimporting of 18 tonnes of gold in January 2008 to just 1.8 tonnes in the same period of the following year.

Since 2000 India has been importing around 400-800 tonnes of gold each year and 2009 looks set to beone of the worst years for imports with the half yearly result to date.

The diamond industry was still being affected by the global economic downturn, and in May 2009DeBeers announced a cut in production of rough diamonds by over 90%. The Diamond industry in Suratwould be notably affected by this development, as Surat depends on as much as 60% of the INR300bncrore (US$6.24bn) annually imported to come from DeBeers. In July 2009, however there was a positivedevelopment for the industry in India. A consortium of 60 diamond exporters in India: Diamond India(DIL) are the first company in the world, apart from DeBeers group Diamond Trading Company; tonegotiate the procurement of rough diamonds directly from Namibia. This is a significant to Indianexporters who are expected to benefit with savings of 5-7%, a notable amount for certain exporters whosemargins may only be 3%. Traditionally, exporters from India traded through the Belgium city of Antwerpwhich procured diamonds from African miners. By going directly to the source Indian exporters avoidcommission charges as well as higher freight costs.

Coal falls far short of demand despite the natural resources, and BMI believes the government andcompanies have to address the improvement of production within this sector as demand for powercontinues to soar. In May 2009, coal minister Sriprakash Jaiswal stated that the Prime Minister had a 100-day programme outlined to help boost the economy in the current market conditions. Part of thisprogramme included boosting coal production by improving efficiency and approval time forenvironmental permits. State owned coal mining company Coal India stated that faster approvals forpermits within the mining industry would significantly help accelerate production. In June 2009, thegovernment expected an independent regulator to be established within six months and it is hoped thatsuch a move will attract private investment of INR118,000 crore by increasing production to 1,061mntonnes per annum by 2025 according to The Times of India. Jaiswal favoured a simple model of aminimum price being set based on government evaluation of coal quantity in a mine, then offering it tothe highest bidder, removing the need for government supervision of production and sale, thusminimising opportunities for corruption.

Though the National Mineral Policy will no doubt boost growth within the mining industry, there herehas been criticism about the effectiveness long term on environmental and social issues. Concerns werevoiced by the Centre for Science and Environment in June 2009 which considered the long-term socialand environmental impact of the Indian mining industry. The organisation believes that the policy, set toattract foreign investment and new technology into the sector; will promote exploitive mining practices,and further exacerbate the problem of poverty in the tribal-inhabited, resource rich areas.

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