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Airline services Annual review September 2009

Published by: CRISIL Ltd.

Published: Sep. 30, 2009 - 72 Pages


Table of Contents


Sections

International operations to grow at a faster rate as compared to domestic operations

Executive summary

1.0 Demand - supply outlook: 2009-10 to 2013-14

Forecast of international pax-km and ASKM: 2008-09 until 2013-14

Forecast of domestic pax-km and ASKM: 2008-09 until 2013-14

2.0 Suitability of operating models at varying ATF prices

3.0 Significant equity infusion required; room for further consolidation

4.0 International operations: Rapid expansion in past 5 years

Increasing focus of carriers on international operations

5.0 Impact of ATF prices on break-even ticket prices on international routes

Boxes

1.0 Demand - supply outlook: 2009-10 to 2013-14

01: Pax-km and ASKM forecast methodology

02: Pax-km, ASKM and domestic passenger traffic forecast methodology

Figures

1.0 Demand - supply outlook: 2009-10 to 2013-14

01 Projected aggregate international pax-km and ASKM

02 Projected Indian carriers’ pax-km and ASKM on international routes

03 Projected aggregate international PLF

04 Projected Indian carriers PLF on international routes

05 Projected domestic pax-km and ASKM

06 Projected domestic PLF

07 Projected domestic passenger traffic

2.0 Suitability of operating models at varying ATF prices

01 PLF of FSC and LFC at different ATF (Rs/litre)

02 ATF cost as percentage of total cost at varying crude oil prices

03 EBITDA and EBITDAR margins of FSCs and LFCs at varying crude oil prices

04 EBITDA and EBITDAR margins of FSCs and LFCs

3.0 Significant equity infusion required; room for further consolidation

01 EBITDA margins of international and domestic carriers

02 Debt to equity ratio of carriers

4.0 International operations: Rapid expansion in past 5 years

01 International operations by Indian carriers

02 World and Indian GDP growth rate

03 FDI inflows in India

04 International tourist traffic and growth rate

05 Average ticket prices of Indian carriers (Rs)

06 Rapid expansion by private carriers on international routes

07 Market share of state-owned and private carriers

08 EBITDAR margins - Domestic and international segment of Jet Airways

09 PLF of Indian carriers on international and domestic routes

10 Growing market share of Indian carriers on international routes

11 International traffic distribution (%), 2007-08

Tables

2.0 Suitability of operating models at varying ATF prices

01 Assumption for the model

3.0 Significant equity infusion required; room for further consolidation

01 Debt to equity ratio of major FSCs in India

4.0 International operations: Rapid expansion in past 5 years

01 ATF prices/ litre (Rs)

5.0 Impact of ATF prices on break-even ticket prices on international routes

01 Translation of crude oil to ATF prices

02 Break-even average ticket prices at PLF of 65 per cent

03 Break-even average ticket prices at PLF of 77 per cent

Sections

1.0 Domestic passenger traffic: Decline in 2008-09 after strong growth

2.0 International operations: Growth in traffic in spite of slowdown

3.0 Industry financials and profitability trends

4.0 Increasing competition in domestic airlines market

5.0 Aircraft acquisition and leasing process

6.0 Factors affecting profitability in aviation industry

7.0 Player profile

Jet Airways

JetLite

National Aviation Company of India Ltd (NACIL)

Kingfisher Red

Paramount Airways

Spice Jet

IndiGo

Go Air

8.0 Glossary of Airlines Industry

Chart

5.0 Aircraft acquisition and leasing process

01 Aircraft acquisition process

Figures

1.0 Domestic passenger traffic: Decline in 2008-09 after strong growth

01 Passengers carried by scheduled Indian carriers - Domestic operation

02 Domestic tourist traffic and growth rate

03 Manufacturing and service sector growth rate

04 Average PLF - Domestic operation

05 Average ATF prices

2.0 International operations: Growth in traffic in spite of slowdown

01 Growing international traffic in spite of economic slowdown

02 Passengers carried by scheduled Indian carriers - International operations

3.0 Industry financials and profitability trends

01 Operating revenue, expenditure and profitability of airlines (Domestic+International)

02 RPKM, ASKM and PLF of airlines in India (Domestic+International)

4.0 Increasing competition in domestic airlines market

01 Market share of airlines

6.0 Factors affecting profitability in aviation industry

01 Operating and net margins of US airlines

Tables

1.0 Domestic passenger traffic: Decline in 2008-09 after strong growth

01 Domestic passengers handled at non-metro airports

02 Average ticket prices (Rs)

2.0 International operations: Growth in traffic in spite of slowdown

01 International passenger traffic

3.0 Industry financials and profitability trends

01 Operating margins of airline companies in India

02 Average domestic ticket prices of airline companies (Rs)

03 Personnel statistics (2007-08)

04 Player profile of airlines in India

7.0 Player profile

01 Jet Airways - Profile

02 Jet Airways - Operational snapshot (2007-08)

03 Jet Airways - Existing fleet

04 JetLite - Profile

05 JetLite - Operational snapshot (2007-08)

06 JetLite - Existing fleet

07 Air India - Profile

08 Air India - Operational Snapshot (2007-08)

09 Air India - Existing fleet

10 Indian Airlines - Profile

11 Indian Airlines - Operational snapshot (2007-08)

12 Indian Airlines - Existing fleet Kingfisher

13 Kingfisher - Profile

14 Kingfisher - Operational snapshot (2007-08)

15 Kingfisher - Existing fleet

16 Kingfisher Red - Profile

17 Kingfisher Red - Operational snapshot (2007-08)

18 Kingfisher Red - Existing fleet

19 Paramount Airways - Profile

20 Paramount Airways - Operational snapshot (2007-08)

21 Paramount Airways - Existing fleet

22 Spice Jet - Profile

23 Spice Jet - Operational snapshot (2007-08)

24 Spice Jet - Existing fleet

25 IndiGo - Profile

26 IndiGo - Operational snapshot (2007-08)

27 IndiGo - Existing fleet

28 Go Air - Profile

29 Go Air - Operational snapshot (2007-08)

30 Go Air - Existing fleet

Section

1.0 Industry statistics

Tables

1.0 Industry statistics

01 Total passengers carried (nos) - Domestic operation

02 Total passengers carried (nos) - International operation

03 Available seat kms (million - km) - Domestic operation

04 Available seat kms (million - km) - International operation

05 Pax-kms performed (million - km) - Domestic operation

05 Pax-kms performed (million - km) - Domestic operation

06 Pax-kms performed (million - km) - International operation

07 Operating revenue (Rs. million)

08 Operating expenses (Rs million)

09 Total personnel (nos)

10 Operating revenues & expenses per km (Rs)

11 Fleet size

12 Schedule aircraft departure - Domestic operation

13 Schedule aircraft departure - International operation

14 Schedule aircraft hours flown - Domestic operation

15 Schedule aircraft hours flown - International operation

16 Average block hours of scheduled Indian carriers

17 Passenger load factor (%) - Domestic operation

18 Passenger load factor (%) - International operation

19 Kms ('000) flown - Domestic operation

20 Kms ('000) flown - International operation

Industry statistics

Abstract

International operations to grow at a faster rate as compared to domestic operations Demand, as defined by passenger kilometres (pax-km) of Indian carriers on international operations, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.8 per cent from 2009-10 to 2013-14 while domestic demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.5 per cent in the same period.

Supply, as defined by available seats kilometres (ASKM) of Indian carriers on international operations, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11 per cent from 2009-10 to 2013-14; domestic supply is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5 per cent during the same period. Supply is likely to grow at a faster rate on international operations driven by better profitability and less competitive international routes.

Passenger load factor (PLF) on international operations is expected to improve from 68 per cent in 2008-09 to 76 per cent in 2013-14 while domestic PLFs are likely to improve from 64.4 per cent in 2008-09 to 78 per cent in 2013-14.

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