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Poland Tourism Report 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Oct. 1, 2009 - 42 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Poland Tourism SWOT
Poland Business Environment SWOT
Poland Political SWOT
Poland Economic SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2005-2013 (‘000)
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation Data, 2005-2013 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Expenditure
Table: Expenditure Data, 2005-2013
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2005-2013 (‘000)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2005-2013 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Budget Carriers
Global Oil Products Market Review
Table: Global Oil Prices, 2003-2013 (US$ per barrel)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Table: Accommodation Data, 2005-2013 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Accommodation
Accommodation Developments
Infrastructure
Business Environment
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Rating
Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Security Business Environment Ratings
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Poland’s Security Risk Ratings
European Regional Security Overview
Currency Forecast
Global Assumptions
Table: BMI’s Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Key Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average against US dollar)
Company Profiles
LOT Polish Airlines
Orbis Hotel Group
Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Difficult 2008 Will Usher In A Few Lean Years…

According to data from the Polish Institute of Tourism (Instytut Turystyki, Intur), there were 59.94mnvisitor arrivals in 2008, of which 12.96mn were tourist arrivals, reflecting falls of 9% and 13%,respectively.

Performance during 2008 was negatively affected by the global economic crisis and, as global economicweakness looks set to continue in 2009 and 2010, we believe that it is wise to be cautious in our shorttermforecasts. We predict that arrival numbers will fall by 3% in 2009 before remaining flat in 2010.Beyond this point there is scope for recovery, especially as Poland is co-hosting the 2012 UEFAEuropean Football Championship with Ukraine.

…But Euro 2012 Will Support Long-Term Growth

In 2012, Poland will co-host the 2012 European Football Championship with Ukraine. The tournamentinvolves 16 teams and will therefore see visitors from at least 14 other European countries, with crowdsfor each match likely to range from 30,000 to more than 80,000 for more than 30 games. It is the firsttime that Poland is hosting a major football tournament. When Germany hosted the World Cup in 2006 itprovided a moderate boost to the economy. Much of the positive boost for Poland will come in the shapeof upgrades for accommodation and infrastructure links prior to the tournament.

However, while clearly a boost to Poland’s tourism sector, the effect on visitor arrivals should be kept inperspective. For example, when Greece hosted the Olympic Games in 2004 in Athens, it experienced adecline in overall tourist arrivals that year, as people who were not following the Olympics decided toholiday elsewhere.

Airlines: LOT Remain In Financial Difficulty

Local media reports in May suggested that LOT Polish Airlines posted losses of PLN700mn in 2008.The airline remains in severe financial difficulties, with the government unable to bail it out because ofEU competition rules. Against this backdrop, a sale of LOT in the near future cannot be ruled out,although obviously the government would prefer to wait for the global economic uncertainty to end inorder to get a higher price for any sale.

Hotels: Orbis Holding Steady

Orbis Hotel Group is Poland’s largest hotel chain, majority owned by France’s Accor. Sales revenuesfor 2008 were essentially flat year-on-year (y-o-y). However, net profit fell by 67.6%, to PLN43.6mn, aresult of the difficult operating environment for hospitality companies. Also, the company said that the2007 net profit figure had been boosted by one-off property sales.

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