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Oman Tourism Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 28, 2009 - 41 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Oman Tourism Industry SWOT
Oman Political SWOT
Oman Economic SWOT
Oman Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Overview Of Oman’s Tourism Industry, 2004-2013 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2005-2013 (‘000)
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism - Arrival Of Tourists, 2005-2013 (‘000)
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation Data, 2005-2013 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Expenditure
Table: Expenditure And Economic Impact Data, 2005-2013
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2005-2013 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Airports
Road Transport
Ferries
Rail
Global Oil Products Market Review
Table Global Oil Prices, 2003-2013 (US$ per barrel)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Accommodation
Developments
Tourism Infrastructure
Business Environment
Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview
Currency Forecast
Table: Oman - Monetary Policy, 2006-2013
Global Assumptions
Table: BMI’s Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Key Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average against US dollar)
Company Profiles
Oman Air
Al Batinah Hotels Company
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Oman might still lay claim to being one of the ‘great undiscovered destinations’ but that position is verylikely to change in the coming years. There is an ongoing effort to build the profile and attract visitors tothis once closed nation.

Standard Chartered Bank released a study in August 2009, in which it shows that the Sultanate’s tourismindustry has shown resilience in the wake of the global slowdown and the flu scare. According to thestudy, ‘the number of tourist arrivals over the first five months rose 17.5% as compared to last year’. Thestudy also reports a 3.9% rise in revenue. Oman’s image has been helped by the recent completion of twonew major projects: The Wave and The Muscat Hills Golf & Country Club.

In another vote of confidence in the sector, Swiss-Belhotel International signed a Memorandum ofUnderstanding to build a four-star business hotel in Al Khuwair in Muscat, in August 2009.Oman has smaller oil and gas reserves than many of its neighbours and consequently has had to face thechallenge of diversifying its economy earlier than most. Tourism was identified several years ago as oneof the new industries on which the Sultanate will invest. Funds have been allocated both to infrastructurewithin the country and marketing efforts overseas.

The most recent initiative is a regional one. Iran and Oman have entered into an agreement to promotetourism between the two countries and to undertake joint promotions to third countries.

Oman plans to attract 12mn visitors annually by 2020, an almost fourfold increase on the current level.

The focal point for decision making is how it can achieve this increase while maintaining the ‘authentic’character of the Sultanate. Lore Koening, director of sales and marketing at the Chedi hotel in Muscat putit this way in a recent interview, ‘People come to Oman because they are interested in the country, itsculture and its history. They don’t come because there is a cheap deal going and they will get guaranteedsunshine. That is not our market’.

At this point many tourists to Oman come from other Gulf countries to the coast on the southwest cornerof the country. This area catches the Indian Ocean monsoon during the summer months between June andSeptember. While most of the gulf region suffers from extreme, dry heat during that time, the DhofarProvince has a cool and misty summer. Travellers from outside the region may not see the attraction of acool, damp 25 degrees Celsius (oC) summer holiday.

Political Risk

July 23 marked the 39th anniversary of Sultan Qaboos’ accession to the throne, the occasion known asRenaissance Day. The Omani media celebrated with a fairly predictable series of tributes and glowingpraise about the sultan’s achievements in turning Oman into a modern nation. Generally speaking, hedoes seem fairly popular, and certainly, there is scant evidence of opposition or dissent. At a reasonablyyouthful 69 years old, this situation should continue over the coming years, although his suddenincapacitation would pose a risk. He has not named a successor publicly, but his preference has reportedlybeen stated in a sealed letter which is to be opened in the event of his death.

Economic Risk

Bolstered by an expansionary spending policy, Oman is looking to mitigate the sharp drop in crude oilrevenues experienced in H109 with the addition of an injection of state investment in order to underpinflagging private-sector economic activity. Last year’s impressive, if boom-fuelled, 13% real GDP growthwill clearly not be matched, but Oman should still manage positive real GDP growth of 0.4% this year(upwardly revised on the back of 2008 data and the recent uptick in oil prices), rising to a respectable2.5% next year.

Business Environment

According to the Oman News Agency (ONA), the Oman Tender Board has allocated tenders for contractsworth US$139.8mn in the areas of transport and energy. The largest single tender includes construction ofa power plant worth US$29.4mn, which will serve the Yitti region in the Muscat governorate. Othertenders include the designing and construction of internal roads in Oman’s Al Sharqia region at the costof US$23.3mn. Although Omani government involvement in projects is on the low side by GCCstandards - at 33%, compared with a regional figure of over 60% according to Kuwait Finance House -we expect the public sector role to increase as financing remains hard to come by. This could be negativefor the business environment going forward.

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