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Poland Freight Transport Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 28, 2009 - 59 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Poland Road Haulage Industry SWOT
Poland Political SWOT
Poland Economic SWOT
Poland Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Europe Freight Transport Business Environment Ratings
Poland’s Freight Transport Environment
Transport Intensity Index
Poland Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
Political Risk Summary
Economic Risk Summary
Business Environment Risk Summary
Legal Code/Corruption
Red Tape
Labour Force
Industry Trends And Developments
Road
Rail
Sea
Industry Forecast Scenario
Global Oil Products Market Review
Table Global Oil Prices, 2003-2013 (US$ per barrel)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Poland - Economic Activity, 2006-2013
Transport Outlook
Table: Freight Carried, Domestic And International, 2006-2013
Table: Freight Transport Data And Forecasts, 2006-2013f
Trade Environment
Table: Value Of Imports By Category, 2006-2013 (US$mn)
Table: Value Of Exports By Category, 2006-2013 (US$mn)
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2002-2006 (US$mn)
Table: Export Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)
Table: Import Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)
Table: Top Import Sources, 2002-2006 (US$mn)
Market Overview
Multi-Modal
Competitive Landscape: Multi-Modal
Road
Road Infrastructure
Competitive Landscape: Road
Rail
Competitive Landscape: Rail
Company Profile: Polskie Koleje Panstwowe (Grupa PKP)
Air
Competitive Landscape: Aviation
Company Profile: LOT Polish Airlines
Water
Competitive Landscape: Maritime
Pipelines
Competitive Landscape: Pipelines
Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
Sources

Abstract

In June, German state railway company Deutsche Bahn (DB) received approval from the EU to take overthe operations of Poland’s privately-owned rail freight company PCC Logistics. The EuropeanCommission examined the deal and concluded that it would not lead to any competition concerns in theEuropean rail cargo market. PCC Logistics has a workforce of 5,000 and annual revenue of nearlyUS$460mn. DB has not disclosed the value of the deal. Industry observers believe the merger willenhance DB’s operational capacity. The company, along with its units Shenker, Railion and DBLogistics, operates the most dense land transport network in Europe. DB is one of the world’s largesttransport groups, carrying close to 2bn passengers a year. Moreover, its freight transport division movesabout 280mn tonnes of freight annually

For the five-year period running up to 2013, BMI expects overall freight carried to increase by an annualaverage of 1.3%, a weaker performance than in the past. We see the best-performing sector beingairfreight, with annual average growth of 3.7%. Despite positive long-term fundamentals, the airfreightpicture is overshadowed by the current global downturn in the industry and LOT’s financial difficulties.

In maritime freight, the downturn in trade levels (-24% by value this year) will be the dominant factor,with gradual recovery from 2010 onwards. Because of the abrupt fall this year, maritime freight carriedwill contract on average by an annual 0.6% over the next five years. Pipeline throughput will grow by anaverage of 2.9% per annum, with a one-off cut back in Russian volume through the Druzhba pipeline in2009 eventually being offset. Road haulage will grow by 3.2% per annum. Here, we believe strongdemand for haulage will continue to be held back by the slow rate of improvement of Poland’s highwaynetwork as well as by the short-term effects of the recession. Finally, rail freight will grow by an annualaverage of 2.7%, as the process of reform and deregulation gradually begins to take hold.

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