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Philippines Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 25, 2009 - 90 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil-storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw material needs.For the Q409 Philippines Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnagethroughput and container volumes at the country's ports, taking into account, where available, the mostrecent monthly throughput data. Using one of the Philippines' main ports and its largest container port,Manila International Container Terminal (MICT), as an example, BMI has revised its 2009 throughputforecasts for this port. We believe that for the whole of 2009 the port's total tonnage throughput will fallby 20.67%, y-o-y, with container throughput set to decline by 16.7%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the the Philippines' shippingsector. We predict that a gradual recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in 2010. This isbased upon the fact that our Country Risk desk is forecasting the Philippines' total trade to increase by2.69% in 2010. Using MICT as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will growby 1.47%, while container volumes will increase by 1.35% in 2010. This estimate will see the port tohandling a total of 13.9mn tonnes and 1.283mn TEUs in 2010. We have also calculated expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). For the country's main ports we predict average yearly changes in the total tonnage throughput andcontainer volumes for the period. This allows us to predict whether or not these changes will enable theports to reclaim their pre-downturn levels of tonnage throughput and to reverse their 2009 containerdecline during our forecast period. The Philippines' port recovery is reliant on a revival in the country's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009BMI expects the Philippines' imports to decline by 14.2% and its exports to fall by 16.2%. A gradualrecovery is forecast to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 2.69%. Also in this report, BMIpredicts average yearly change in the country's total trade over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013).BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of China, Japan, the US, Singapore, HongKong and Saudi Arabia to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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