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Mexico Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 25, 2009 - 89 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil-storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw material needs.For the Q409 Mexico Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughputand container volumes at the country's ports, taking into account, where available, the most recentmonthly throughput data. Using one of Mexico's main ports, the port of Manzanillo, as an example, BMIhas revised its 2009 throughput forecasts for this port. We believe that for the whole of 2009 the port'stotal tonnage throughput will fall by 20.02% y-o-y, with container throughput set to decline by 20.88%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Mexican shipping sector. Wepredict that a gradual recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is based upon thefact that our Country Risk desk is forecasting Mexico's total trade to increase by 2% in 2010. Using theport of Manzanillo as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will grow by 4.3%,while container volumes will increase by 7.21% in 2010. This estimate will see the port handling a totalof 18.6mn tonnes and 1,196mn TEUs in 2010. We have also calculated expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). For the country's main ports we predict average yearly changes in total tonnage throughput andcontainer volumes for the period. This allows us to predict whether or not these changes will enable theports to reclaim their pre-downturn levels of tonnage throughput and to reverse ports' 2009 containerdecline during our forecast period. Mexico's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Mexico's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMIexpects Mexico's imports to decline by 22% and its exports to fall by 21.5%. A gradual recovery isforecast to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 2%. Also in this report, BMI predictsaverage yearly change in the country's total trade over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013).BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of the US, China, Canada, Germany, SouthKorea, Japan and Spain to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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