Brazil Agribusiness Report Q4 2009 : Market Research Report

Brazil Agribusiness Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 25, 2009 - 73 Pages

Executive Summary: SWOT Analysis; Brazil Agricultural SWOT; Industry Business Environment Overview; Supply Demand Analysis; Brazil Soybean Outlook
Table: Brazil Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade: Brazil Grain Outlook
Table: Brazil Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Barley Production, Consumption & Trade: Brazil Rice Outlook
Table: Brazil Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Rice Production, Consumption & Trade: Brazil Dairy Outlook
Table: Brazil Milk Production & Consumption: Brazil Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade: Brazil Sugar Outlook
Table: Brazil Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade: Brazil Coffee Outlook
Table: Brazil Coffee Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Coffee Production & Consumption: Brazil Cocoa Outlook
Table: Brazil Cocoa Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Cocoa Production & Consumption: Brazil Livestock Outlook
Table: Brazil Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Brazil Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade: Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers: Commodity Price Analysis; Corn
Table: Corn: Rice
Table: Rice: Soy
Table: Soybean: Wheat
Table: Wheat: Softs Update; Cocoa
Table: Cocoa: Coffee
Table: Coffee: Milk
Table: Milk: Sugar
Table: Sugar: Downstream Supply Chain Analysis; Industry Forecast Scenario - Food; Food Consumption; Brazil Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013; Trade; Food & Drink Trade Balance -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013; Canned Food; Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013; Confectionery; Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013; Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail; Brazil Mass Grocery Retail -- Value Sales by Format (US$bn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013; Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2007 & 2017 (%); Macroeconomic Forecasts
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity: Industry Trend Analysis; Massive Investment To Boost Sugar Yields; Sugar industry To Push Sustainability; Country Snapshot: Brazil Demographic Data; Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030: Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2003
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030: Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 1996-2002: BMI Forecast Modelling; How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

Brazil's agricultural sector suffered from a combination of poor weather, a strong real and restricted creditthrough mid-2009. The drought in the south of the country will see production of grain and soybeans fallin 2009. We forecast soybean production to drop 5.6% year-on-year to 57.57mn tonnes while corn andwheat output will fall 14.1% and 3.8% to 50.36mn tonnes and 5.77mn tonnes, respectively.

While soybean prices have been supported by tight supplies owing to the devastation of the crop inneighbouring Argentina, the low world corn price combined with poor yields and the strong real has putpressure on farmers' profits. The government has stepped in by raising minimum prices for the crop.Despite this, we expect to see the area planted to corn decline in 2010 as farmers switch to soybeans. Westill forecast corn production to increase next year, however, owing to an expected increase in the averageyield.

While drought has caused crop losses for grain crops, the sugar cane and coffee harvests were hurt byunseasonally heavy rains through the southern winter months of 2009. The rains have delayed harvestingof both crops and could see average yields decline. It is quality that is likely to suffer more, however.Sucrose recovery levels are down and the quality of Brazil's coffee crop will also fall. Demand forBrazil's coffee is being supported by the disastrous harvest in neighbouring Colombia where productionhas been hit by rains and replanting of coffee production.

Tight world supplies have also boosted demand for Brazilian sugar. Millers have been maximising sugarproduction at the expense of ethanol to take advantage of the surge in the price for sugar this year. Thiswill see the trend for the declining proportion of cane used for sugar reversed; with investment in recentyears focused on increasing ethanol production, mills are now working at full capacity for sugarproduction. The high level of indebtedness in the sector is making funds for investing in capacityimprovements hard to come by despite the high sugar price.

The government is working to open up credit to farmers. In July the agriculture minister said thegovernment would increase the amount of government-backed credit available to farmers by 38% toBRL108bn, according to Bloomberg. This should go some way to making up for the fall in financingfrom agricultural trading companies and private banks. Difficulty in accessing credit has slowedexpansion of agricultural production in Brazil over the years. As Brazil's economy grows and labour costsrise, the pressure to invest in mechanisation will increase. Already producers of key export crops such ascoffee are struggling to find labour at affordable levels. Good access to credit will be essential for thecontinuing development of the sector.

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Brazil Agribusiness Report Q4 2009

Table of Contents

Abstract