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New Zealand Agribusiness Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 24, 2009 - 45 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
New Zealand Agricultural SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
Supply Demand Analysis
New Zealand Dairy Outlook
Table: New Zealand Milk Production & Consumption
Table: New Zealand Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Milk Production & Consumption
Table: New Zealand Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
New Zealand Grains Outlook
Table: New Zealand Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
New Zealand Livestock Outlook
Table: New Zealand Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: New Zealand Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
Corn
Table: Corn
Rice
Table: Rice
Soy
Table: Soybean
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table: Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: New Zealand - Economic Activity
Monetary Policy
Table: New Zealand - Monetary Policy
Company Finance Alert
Fonterra Restructuring Welcomed But More Still Needed?
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

The second quarter of 2009 proved to be another difficult one for New Zealand's agricultural sector. Withthe sector so heavily dependent on exports, the rapid strengthening of the New Zealand dollar against itsUS counterpart has hurt producers. Between March and mid-August the New Zealand dollar rose fromjust under NZD0.50/US$ to above NZD0.67/US$. This has negated the positive effects of a slightrecovery in commodity prices over the period.

The renewed strength of the New Zealand dollar has contributed to Fonterra's decision to set its forecastpayout for milk solids in 2010 at NZD4.55/kg, down from NZD5.20/kg in 2009. Coming down from ahigh of NZD7.90/kg during the dairy boom of 2008, the new price will mean 2010 will be anotherdifficult year for dairy farmers. Many farmers invested in expanding production in the years leading up torecession and are now left servicing large debts with reduced incomes.

While prices and exports held up well for the first half of 2009, New Zealand's beef producers are also infor a tough time. As for dairy, the competitiveness of the country's meat exports will be hurt by thestrengthening of the New Zealand dollar. New Zealand's meat industry is at a low ebb at the moment.Stock levels of both sheep and cattle are the lowest in decades and confidence among farmers is down.Even before the current problems there had been a major restructuring in New Zealand's livestock sector.Many sheep farmers have switched to dairy in pursuit of higher profits.

Industry body Meat and Wool New Zealand is hoping to breathe new life into the sector by plotting astrategy for the development of the industry. Meat and Wool New Zealand is aiming to developleadership and managerial skills in livestock farming, helping to rectify the difficulty the sector faces inattracting new talent into the oft unglamorous world of farming. The body will also aim to develop newmarkets for New Zealand's meat exports. While a growing appetite for meat in the emerging markets ofAsia should see demand for New Zealand's beef exports grow, lamb will likely be a harder sell as it is notwell established in the cuisine of much of the region.

All this investment does not come without a price and a rise in the levy for sheep and beef farmersannounced by Meat and Wool New Zealand has not gone down well with farmers. Under the new levystructure, from 2010 to 2014 the price farmers pay Meat and Wool New Zealand will rise annually byNZD0.05 per head for sheep and NZD0.20 per head for cattle from their current level of NZD0.40 perhead for sheep and NZD3.60 for beef cattle. Farmers have complained that with profits already erased bythe recession and high input costs, this is not time to ask for more from farmers. Despite the short-termpain of increased costs, we believe investment in the future of the sector is essential for the long-termhealth of the sector.

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