Mexico Agribusiness Report Q4 2009 : Market Research Report

Mexico Agribusiness Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 24, 2009 - 64 Pages

Executive Summary: Executive Summary; SWOT Analysis; Mexico Agricultural SWOT; Industry Business Environment Overview; Supply Demand Analysis; Mexico Soybean Outlook
Table: Mexico Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade: Mexico Rice Outlook
Table: Mexico Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Rice Production, Consumption & Trade: Mexico Livestock Outlook
Table: Mexico Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade: Mexico Grain Outlook; Mexico Grain Outlook
Table: Mexico Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade: Mexico Dairy Outlook
Table: Mexico Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Mexico Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Mexico Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade: Mexico Coffee Outlook
Table: Mexico Coffee Production & Consumption
Table: Mexico Coffee Production & Consumption: Mexico Sugar Outlook
Table: Mexico Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Mexico Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade: Mexico Cocoa Outlook
Table: Mexico Cocoa Production & Consumption
Table: Mexico Cocoa Production & Consumption: Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers: Commodity Price Analysis; Corn
Table: Corn: Rice
Table: Rice: Soy
Table: Soybean: Wheat
Table: Wheat: Softs Update; Cocoa
Table: Cocoa: Coffee
Table: Coffee: Milk
Table: Milk: Sugar
Table: Sugar: Downstream Supply Chain Analysis; Industry Forecast Scenario - Food; Food Consumption
Table: Mexico Food Consumption Indicators, 2005-2013: Trade
Table: Mexico Food & Drink Trade Indicators (US$mn), 2005-2012: Confectionery
Table: Mexico Confectionery Sales, 2005-2013 (US$mn unless otherwise stated): Prepared Food / Canned Food
Table: Mexico Canned Food Sales, 2005-2013: Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Mexico - Economic Activity: Appendix; Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030: Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030: Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012: BMI Forecast Modelling; How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

In BMI's Mexico Agribusiness Report for Q4 2009, we introduce the new Cocoa Outlook. As in manycountries in Latin America, cocoa production in Mexico has declined over the past couple of decades.Average yields have fallen owing to a lack of investment in production. The area harvested has also fallenas farmers have switched to other crops. Mexico's ageing stock of cocoa trees is vulnerable to harshweather and disease outbreaks, particularly frosty pod. Poor infrastructure and knowledge of properhandling of the crop negatively impacts on the quality of Mexican cocoa. The sector has also sufferedfrom tight control under the Unión Nacional de Productores de Cacao which was the sole buyer ofMexican cocoa until 1989.

Despite this somewhat sorry picture, there is still hope for the cocoa sector. As a vital source ofemployment in some of the country's poorest regions, cocoa production benefits from the strong supportof both the federal and the state government of Tabasco where three quarters of Mexican cocoa is grown.In 2005, the crop made up 20% of the state's agricultural GDP. In the middle of this decade the Tobascoand federal governments launched a US$6mn programme to improve efficiency in the sector by providingtraining to farmers and investing in production infrastructure such as mechanical driers.

Another promising avenue for cocoa production is organic and environmentally friendly certifiedproduction. Mexican coffee growers, particularly in Chiapas State where a quarter of the country's cocoais grown, have keenly taken up certification schemes and Mexico is now the world's largest producer ofcertified organic coffee. Demand for organic and ethical products from the rich world has increasedrapidly in recent years. Small-scale cocoa farmers could see the value of their production increasesignificantly once their crop is certified. The prevalence of shade production where cocoa is grown underforest cover makes it a good proposition for environmentally friendly certification as this method ofproduction retains a large proportion of the area's biodiversity when compared to plantation-style monoculture.

With investment in training farmers to achieve certification and to improve the quality of theirproduct, Mexico's cocoa production could see similar success to that achieved in coffee production.Mexico is currently in the middle of its driest summer in more than half a century. The government hasbeen forced to step in with support to farmers facing ruin from the drought. The dry weather has delayedplanting and will likely see grain production in 2010 fall significantly unless rains pick up in the comingmonths. Reservoirs in much of the north of the country are running dangerously low and water suppliesfor irrigation are non-existent in some areas. The brewing El Niño-Southern Oscillation is thought to becontributing to the drought. While extreme weather conditions can't be helped, the effects of the droughtare being exacerbated by poor irrigation infrastructure and production techniques. Investment in waterstorage and irrigation infrastructure is necessary to help protect agriculture against future droughts.

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Mexico Agribusiness Report Q4 2009

Table of Contents

Abstract