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Cameroon Agribusiness Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 24, 2009 - 38 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Cameroon Agricultural SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
Supply Demand Analysis
Cameroon Sugar Outlook
Table: Cameroon Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Cameroon Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Cameroon Cocoa Outlook
Table: Cameroon Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Cameroon Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade
Cameroon Coffee Outlook
Table: Cameroon Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Cameroon Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade
Cameroon Grains Outlook
Cameroon Grains Outlook
Table: Cameroon Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Cameroon Sorghum Production & Consumption
Table: Cameroon Sorghum Production & Consumption
Table: Cameroon Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
Corn
Table: Corn
Rice
Table: Rice
Soy
Table: Soybean
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table: Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Ratings Update - Food Crisis
Table: Cameroon - Risk Ratings
Political Risk - Food Crisis
Economic Risk - Exports Shrinking
Business Environment - Power Play
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

BMI's Cameroon Agribusiness Report Q409 continues on the themes touched upon in previouspublications, as the country - potentially a 'breadbasket' of West Africa - continues in earnest its attemptsto improve its food sovereignty rating.

Local coffee and cocoa farmers are set to benefit from a new system disbursing up-to-the-minute marketinformation. The modern market information system - named Infoshare - was part developed by theUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and is seen as being a very usefultool in helping local farmers to realise greater profits by way of limiting the potential for intermediaryprofiteering. UNCTAD estimates that Infoshare may help farmers increase revenues by as much as 15%in the world's fifth largest cocoa producer, while a successful adoption of the scheme could lead to theconcept being replicated across the continent.

Infoshare has been in the pipeline for a while, having first been conceptualised in 2005. The system willenable users to access information relating to quality of produce and prices - international as well as local- from a variety of mediums including the internet, local radio stations and mobile phones. It is hoped thata network comprising up to 65 community radio stations will be built, broadcasting in various regionaldialects so as to maximise the percentage of farmers benefitting from the scheme.

BMI has predicted coffee and cooca production growth of 10.36% and 86.70% (the latter from a muchlower production base) respectively to 2013, due to investments by companies such as Barry Callebautand Mars aimed at developing sustainable industries; the Infoshare scheme can be viewed as a welcomecomplement to such efforts.

Such positive sentiment is in danger of disappearing from the vital corn industry as a corruption scandalthreatens to undermine strong efforts at achieving self-sufficiency. According to a Reuters reportpublished in the second week of August, around CFA2bn of proposed corn subsidies was embezzled bycorrupt officials via fake farmer groups, as told by Cameroon's National Anti-Corruption Commission(NACC). According to the report, 47 members of the ministry are to be prosecuted, which, on one hand isa positive sign of Cameroon's determination to rid the country of the negative image associated withcorruption and graft. Such efforts are commendable, although the fact that the story made the news willdo little to quell the underlying fears of many potential investors in Cameroon, thus serving to limit theirappetite for risk in a country possessing an already dubious reputation for business malpractice.

Nevertheless, we foresee corn production rising by 6.97% through to 2013, keeping on a similartrajectory to the forecasting period from 2003 to 2008; not least because the government appears morecommitted in its efforts to improve fundamentals, with irrigation likely to be a particular focus, whileaccess to better quality inputs, such as higher yielding seeds and fertiliser, will provide optimism.However, we expect the deficit to expand to 2013, as growing household consumption and use of corn asa feedstock will outpace productivity gains.

The government has announced it will be reducing the price of staple goods such as rice, salt and fishfrom July 1 by 25% and we believe this will have a significant impact on overall consumption. At thesame time, a government programme to distribute free pesticides and seeds to farmers' organisationsshould help boost subsistence agriculture, further raising income across a wide swath of the population,especially in 2010.

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