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Pakistan Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 24, 2009 - 94 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil-storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw material needs.For the Q409 Pakistan Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughputand container volumes at the country's ports for the financial year 2009-2010 (hereafter referred to asFY10), taking into account, where available, the most recent monthly throughput data. Using one ofPakistan's main ports, Port Qasim, as an example, BMI has revised its FY10 throughput forecasts for thisport. We believe that for the whole of FY10 the port's total tonnage throughput will fall by 3.04%, y-o-y,with container throughput set to decline by 3.93%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Pakistani shipping sector. Wepredict that a slow recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in the financial year 2010-2011(hereafter referred to as FY11). This is based upon the fact that our Country Risk desk is forecastingPakistan's total trade to remain virtually unchanged in 2010 (we predict it to fall by just 0.08%). UsingPort Qasim as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will grow by 0.34%, whilecontainer volumes will increase by 0.38% in FY11. This estimate will see the port handling a total of24.3mn tonnes and 656,728TEUs in FY11. We have also calculated expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). For the country's main ports we predict average yearly changes in the total tonnage throughput andcontainer volumes for the period. This allows us to predict whether or not these changes will enable theports to reclaim their pre-downturn levels of tonnage throughput and to reverse the ports' FY09-FY10container decline during our forecast period. Pakistan's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Pakistan's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMIexpects Pakistan's imports to decline by 9.16% and its exports to fall by 9.04%. A gradual recovery isforecast to begin in 2012, with total trade forecast to grow by 1.76%. Also in this report, BMI predictsaverage yearly change in the country's total trade over the mid term (2010-2013). BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of China, the UAE, the US, Saudi Arabia,Kuwait, Afghanistan and the UK to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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