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Colombia Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 24, 2009 - 87 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil-storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw material needs.For the Q409 Colombia Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughputand container volumes at the country's ports, taking into account, where available, the most recentmonthly throughput data. Using one of Colombia's main ports, the port of Buenaventura, as an example,BMI has revised its 2009 throughput forecasts for this port. We believe that for the whole of 2009 theport's total tonnage throughput will increase by 18.82%, y-o-y, with container throughput set to decline by68%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Colombian shipping sector.We predict that a gradual recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in 2010, andBuenaventura's tonnage throughput will continue its growth. This is based upon the fact that our CountryRisk desk is forecasting Colombia's total trade to increase by 4.97% in 2010. Using the port ofBuenaventura as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will grow by 2.21%, whilecontainer volumes will increase by 3.2% in 2010. This estimate will see the port handling a total of11.7mn tonnes and 245,457TEUs in 2010. We have also calculated expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). For the country's main ports we predict average yearly changes in the total tonnage throughput andcontainer volumes for the period. This allows us to predict whether or not these changes will enable theports to reclaim their pre-downturn levels of tonnage throughput and to reverse the 2009 container declineduring our forecast period. Colombia's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Colombia's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMIexpects Colombia's imports to decline by 17% and its exports to fall by 7%. A gradual recovery isforecast to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 4.97%. Also in this report, BMI predictsaverage yearly change in the country's total trade over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013).BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of the US, Venezuela, China, Mexico,Brazil, Chile, Ecuador and the UK to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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