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Chile Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 24, 2009 - 90 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil-storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw material needs.For the Q409 Chile Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughput andcontainer volumes at the country's ports, taking into account, where available, the most recent monthlythroughput data. Using one of Chile's main ports, the port of Valparaíso, as an example, BMI has revisedits 2009 throughput forecasts for this port. We believe that for the whole of 2009 the port's total tonnagethroughput will fall by 16.97%, y-o-y, with container throughput set to decline by 12.91%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Chilean shipping sector. Wepredict that a steady recovery in throughput will begin at Valparaíso in 2010. This is based upon the factthat our Country Risk desk is forecasting Chile's total trade to increase by 12.75% in 2010. BMI predictsthat tonnage throughput at the port will grow by 12.31%, while container volumes will increase by14.38% in 2010. This estimate will see the port handling a total of 10.2mn tonnes and 943,186TEUs in2010. We have also calculated expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). For the country's main ports we predict average yearly changes in the total tonnage throughput andcontainer volumes for the period. This allows us to predict whether or not these ports will reclaim theirpre-downturn levels of tonnage throughput and reverse the 2009 container decline during our forecastperiod. Chile's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Chile's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMI expectsChile's imports to decline by 15% and its exports to fall by 14.8%. A gradual recovery is forecast to beginin 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 12.75%. Also in this report, BMI predicts average yearlychange in the country's total trade over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of the US, China, Brazil, South Korea,Japan and Argentina to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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