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Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: Sep. 21, 2009 - 45 Pages
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- South Africa Textiles SWOT
- South Africa Apparel SWOT
- South Africa Political SWOT
- South Africa Economic SWOT
- South Africa Business Environment SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- General
- General: Past Headlines
- Wool
- Wool: Past Headlines
- Synthetics
- Synthetics: Past Headlines
- Textiles
- Textiles: Past Headlines
- Clothing
- Clothing: Past Headlines
- South Africa Market Outlook
- Textiles And Clothing Market Outlook
- Textiles
- Clothing
- Table: Textiles And Clothing Production And International Trade, 2006-2013
- Long-Term Outlook
- Table: Textiles And Clothing Production And International Trade, Long-Term Forecasts, 2011-2018
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- South Africa - Economic Activity
- Global Textiles And Clothing Market Overview
- Background: International Trade In Textiles
- Output And Trends
- Global Fibres Market Outlook
- Cotton
- Wool
- Table: Global Fibre Prices
- Synthetic Fibres
- Company Profiles
- Fast Retailing
- Gap
- Table: Gap Key Financial Data
- Table: Gap Income Statement (US$mn)
- Inditex
- Seardel Investment
- Foschini
- Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
- Global Assumptions
- Table: BMI’s Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011
- Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
- Table: Key Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average against US dollar)
- Methodology
AbstractIt is rather hard to be optimistic about the immediate future for the South African textiles and apparelindustry, which has been battered by low growth, strong import competition, and a lack of consistentgovernment support. A number of plant closures and job losses were announced in 2008. In Q309, afterconsidering a rescue package from Frame Group, the country’s largest textile producer, the governmentwas forced to conclude it did not have a viable business model and allowed it to close with the loss of1,400 jobs. As demand has slowed and competition increases through 2009, prospects for this mediumsizedproducer look at best mixed. According to BMI estimates, South Africa was ranked 29th in theworld by textiles and apparel value added (in nominal terms, we put this at US$4.25bn in 2008). As ashare of GDP, textiles and apparel value added stood at an estimated 1.5%.
Overall, we estimate that South African textiles and clothing manufacturing value added, which expandedby an estimated 2.9% in 2007, slowed to 0.9% in 2008, and will have its worst year in 2009 with acontraction of 4.4%. In 2010, we forecast a further contraction of 0.4%, with a recovery beginning in2011 (+0.9%). In the five years to 2008, BMI estimates that average annual growth of manufacturingvalue added was 1.6%, behind GDP at 4.7%. In the next five years, we see the pace of growth falling toan average of only 0.1%, compared to an annual GDP expansion of 2.3%. BMI expects textile andclothing exports to contract by 14.2% this year (to US$403mn), with imports contracting by 15.6% (toUS$1.875bn). Export growth, which averaged 4.8% in the five years to 2008, will, nevertheless, gatherpace to 6.8% in the five years to 2013.
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