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South Africa Textiles and Clothing Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 21, 2009 - 45 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
South Africa Textiles SWOT
South Africa Apparel SWOT
South Africa Political SWOT
South Africa Economic SWOT
South Africa Business Environment SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
General
General: Past Headlines
Wool
Wool: Past Headlines
Synthetics
Synthetics: Past Headlines
Textiles
Textiles: Past Headlines
Clothing
Clothing: Past Headlines
South Africa Market Outlook
Textiles And Clothing Market Outlook
Textiles
Clothing
Table: Textiles And Clothing Production And International Trade, 2006-2013
Long-Term Outlook
Table: Textiles And Clothing Production And International Trade, Long-Term Forecasts, 2011-2018
Macroeconomic Outlook
South Africa - Economic Activity
Global Textiles And Clothing Market Overview
Background: International Trade In Textiles
Output And Trends
Global Fibres Market Outlook
Cotton
Wool
Table: Global Fibre Prices
Synthetic Fibres
Company Profiles
Fast Retailing
Gap
Table: Gap Key Financial Data
Table: Gap Income Statement (US$mn)
Inditex
Seardel Investment
Foschini
Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Global Assumptions
Table: BMI’s Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Key Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average against US dollar)
Methodology

Abstract

It is rather hard to be optimistic about the immediate future for the South African textiles and apparelindustry, which has been battered by low growth, strong import competition, and a lack of consistentgovernment support. A number of plant closures and job losses were announced in 2008. In Q309, afterconsidering a rescue package from Frame Group, the country’s largest textile producer, the governmentwas forced to conclude it did not have a viable business model and allowed it to close with the loss of1,400 jobs. As demand has slowed and competition increases through 2009, prospects for this mediumsizedproducer look at best mixed. According to BMI estimates, South Africa was ranked 29th in theworld by textiles and apparel value added (in nominal terms, we put this at US$4.25bn in 2008). As ashare of GDP, textiles and apparel value added stood at an estimated 1.5%.

Overall, we estimate that South African textiles and clothing manufacturing value added, which expandedby an estimated 2.9% in 2007, slowed to 0.9% in 2008, and will have its worst year in 2009 with acontraction of 4.4%. In 2010, we forecast a further contraction of 0.4%, with a recovery beginning in2011 (+0.9%). In the five years to 2008, BMI estimates that average annual growth of manufacturingvalue added was 1.6%, behind GDP at 4.7%. In the next five years, we see the pace of growth falling toan average of only 0.1%, compared to an annual GDP expansion of 2.3%. BMI expects textile andclothing exports to contract by 14.2% this year (to US$403mn), with imports contracting by 15.6% (toUS$1.875bn). Export growth, which averaged 4.8% in the five years to 2008, will, nevertheless, gatherpace to 6.8% in the five years to 2013.

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