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Indonesia Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 18, 2009 - 90 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil-storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw material needs.For the Q409 Indonesia Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughputand container volumes at the country's ports, taking into account, where available, the most recentmonthly throughput data. Using Indonesia's main port of Jakarta (Tanjung Priok) as an example, BMI hasrevised its 2009 throughput forecasts for this port. We believe that for the whole of 2009 the port's totaltonnage throughput will fall by 3.34%, y-o-y, with container throughput set to decline by 22.87%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Indonesian shipping sector.We predict that a gradual recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is basedupon the fact that our Country Risk desk is forecasting Indonesia's total trade to increase by 9.03% in2010. Using the port of Tanjung Priok as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the portwill grow by 2.25%, while container volumes will increase by 3.52% in 2010. This estimate will see theport to handling a total of 41.6mn tonnes and 3.181mn TEUs in 2010. We have also calculated expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). For the country's main ports we predict average yearly changes in the total tonnage throughput andcontainer volumes for the period. This allows us to predict whether or not ports will reclaim their predownturnlevels of tonnage throughput and reverse the 2009 container decline during our forecast period. Indonesia's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Indonesia's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMIexpects Indonesia's imports to decline by 17.3% and its exports to fall by 15.5%. A gradual recovery isforecast to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 9.03%. Also in this report, BMI predictsaverage yearly change in the country's total trade over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013).BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of Singapore, Japan, China, the US, SouthKorea, Malaysia and Thailand to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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