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Malaysia Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 18, 2009 - 92 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil-storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw material needs.For the Q409 Malaysia Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughputand container volumes at the country's ports, taking into account, where available, the most recentmonthly throughput data. Using Malaysia's main port, Port Klang, as an example, BMI has revised its2009 throughput forecasts for this port. We believe that for the whole of 2009 the port's total tonnagethroughput will fall by 20.87%, y-o-y, with container throughput set to decline by 16.47%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Malaysian shipping sector.We predict that a steady recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is based uponthe fact that our country risk desk is forecasting Malaysia's total trade to increase by 4.44% in 2010.Using Port Klang as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will grow by 11.53%,while container volumes will increase by 11.48% in 2010. This estimate will see the port handling a totalof 134.5mn tonnes and 7.424mn TEUs in 2010. We have also calculated expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). For the country's main ports we predict average yearly changes in the total tonnage throughput andcontainer volumes for the period. This allows us to predict whether or not the ports will reclaim their predownturnlevels of tonnage throughput and reverse the 2009 container decline during our forecast period. Malaysia's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Malaysia's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMIexpects Malaysia's imports to decline by 15.5% and its exports to fall by 16%. A gradual recovery isforecast to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 4.44%. Also in this report, BMI predictsaverage yearly change in the country's total trade over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013).BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of Singapore, China, the US, Japan andThailand to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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