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Morocco Agribusiness Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 18, 2009 - 39 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractAgriculture is Morocco's largest employer, accounting for almost half of the population, although itscontribution to GDP is considerably less than both the industrial and services sectors where educatedMoroccans are increasingly attracted. Over the years, as this dynamic has intensified, and urbanisationhas exacerbated soil degradation and intensified pressure on farmers to produce more food on less land,Morocco has become more reliant on exports to fulfil consumption needs. However, realising theuneconomical drain on the domestic budget of ever increasing food imports, the government has in recenttimes sought to address this by way of a number of initiatives aimed at making the sector more attractiveto the younger, educated generations, as well as to foreign investors. BMI's latest Morocco AgribusinessReport Q409 is published as this drive continues, while economists are increasingly optimistic that theglobal recession has bottomed out.Notwithstanding the drought that has ravaged the region in recent years, Morocco is able to successfullyproduce an array of goods, notably fruits, vegetables and pulses; mainly in the Mediterranean climatetowards the North of the country. This allows for the export of these products into Europe, as well as tothe Maghreb and wider MENA regions. In addition, food processing and packing are quite welldeveloped in some areas. However, the Moroccans are dependent on grains and other staple imports dueto the tightness of the domestic water supply and lack of irrigation. This situation reached a head as globalcommodities prices rocketed in 2008 amid aggressive buying from similarly import dependent nations. As such, the government has shown earnestness in its efforts to engender greater self-sufficiency. On average, Moroccan land is subject to drought conditions every three years, so the creation andupgrading of existing irrigation remains a priority, particularly when considering the rapid pace withwhich urbanisation is occurring, which, in turn, leads to a shifting dynamic of domestic water suppliesfrom the countryside to the towns and cities. The Moroccan government has included irrigation as one ofthe central factors in its US$21bn 10-year plan to diversify and modernise national farming. Researchcentres have been established where it is hoped innovations that will shape the future productivity of theindustry will be made. BMI is particularly optimistic about the outlook for Morocco through to 2013 with double-digit growthforecast in practically every group covered in our report. The grains will lead the charge with wheat,barley and corn production expanding by 164%, 95% and 20% respectively. The most notable mover isbarley as we predict that morocco will go from being an importer to being completely self-sufficient,which, in turn, will prove favourable to livestock producers who will be able to turn their backs on barleyimports. Corn and wheat, both coming from low initial positions will show marked growth althoughrobust consumption growth over the period will lead to a swelling deficit. We believe more favourablerains will benefit farmers, as will the adoption of modern farming techniques, improved managementpractices and relevant seed types. Dairy consumption will show strong growth across the board, a dynamic that will increase in accordancewith rising disposable incomes. Sugar imports will similarly remain substantial despite a 30% increase inproduction to 2013; Moroccans are among the highest consumers of sugar in the world and we do not seea change in this dynamic in the medium term, although, as we have seen in a host of developing andricher nations alike, increasing health consciousness is lending itself towards lower consumption of sugarbased drinks and confectionaries. As the industry continues to develop and increase productivity it is highly likely that the growing numberof the many small-scale family farms will be forced to exit the industry as mechanisation and economiesof scale take precedent. This will help give rise to a more commercially viable and efficient industry,which will similarly enhance the food security outlook, while becoming a more attractive prospect topotential farmers and investors. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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