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Greece Tourism Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 16, 2009 - 59 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Greece Political SWOT
Greece Economic SWOT
Greece Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2005-2013 (‘000)
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation Data, 2005-2013 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Expenditure
Table: Expenditure And Economic Impact Data, 2005-2013
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism - Arrival Of Tourists At National Borders, 2005-2013 (‘000)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2005-2013 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Table: Key Players - Commercial Airlines, 2008
Global Oil Products Market Review
Table Global Oil Prices, 2003-2013 (US$ per barrel)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Table: Key Players - Hospitality Sector
Accommodation Developments
Gambling
Business Environment
Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Rating
Greece Business Environment Overview
Security Risk Analysis
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Greece - Security Risk Ratings
Europe Regional Security Overview
Currency Forecast
Table: Greece - Monetary Policy, 2006-2013
Global Assumptions
Table: BMI’s Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Key Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average against US dollar)
Company Profiles
Olympic Airlines
Aegean Airlines
Regency Entertainment
Grecotel
Hilton
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Tourism Overview

BMI estimates that there was slight negative growth in foreign tourist arrivals in 2008, with the strengthof the euro making non-eurozone countries and traditional rivals more attractive. The weakness of sterlingagainst the euro is also likely to have contributed to the deterioration in arrivals from the UK - the majorsource market. The tourism sector though is in for a far worse year in 2009. Figures for Q109 show thatthe number of tourists visiting Greece was down 7.2% year-on-year (y-o-y). Reportedly, conventionand business tourism in Athens and Thessaloniki has been badly affected by the global economicdownturn. Tourism is not completely depressed, however, with a number of Greek islands, includingRhodes and the Dodecanese Islands, recording strong growth in tourist arrivals in the first four months of2009. More recent local data, from the Federation of Hellenic Tourist Enterprises, report that touristarrivals declined around 10% y-o-y in H109.

Forecast Scenario

Although the Greek tourism sector is set for a difficult year in 2009, this quarter, we have revised upslightly our expectations for foreign tourist arrivals in the short term, and now anticipate negative growthof 9% y-o-y. We also continue to maintain that there will be a slight recovery in tourist arrivals next year,as the economic downturn in the most important source markets - the eurozone and the UK - bottomsout. However, more significant recovery in arrivals is only likely to take place from 2011.

Athens International Airport

The most recent traffic data from Athens International Airport (AIA) are for the first five months of2009 and show a continuing poor trend. Total passenger traffic was down just under 6% y-o-y, withnumbers falling about 10% in May, compared with the same month in 2008. The number of internationalpassengers, meanwhile, declined over 9% y-o-y in the five-month period, and fell nearly 14% y-o-y inMay. Compared with Q109, however, the decline in international passenger traffic does show slightimprovement.

Aegean Airlines

In May 2009, the global partnership of the Star Alliance association accepted the membershipapplication of Aegean Airlines. The integration process is expected to take around twelve months. Latestfigures show Aegean Airlines carried 1.2mn passengers in Q109, achieving 9% y-o-y growth, withinternational traffic up an impressive 20% y-o-y to about 430,000 passengers - contrary to generalaviation trends. Expanding its international routes, the carrier will start a daily service to Istanbul inSeptember 2009.

Olympic Airlines/Olympic Air

Following the privatisation of the national carrier Olympic Airlines in March this year, the owners,Greece’s Marfin Investment Group (MIG), announced in July that a new airline, Olympic Air, wouldbegin flight operations in October 2009.

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