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Brazil Tourism Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 16, 2009 - 48 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe number of tourists arriving in Brazil has been high for many years. Even so, it is still growing. In2001 there were 4.7mn arrivals. While the growth pattern has been erratic, alternating between years withstrong growth and others with a fall off in numbers, the trend is certainly upwards. In 2008 there were6.8mn arrivals and while that number is expected to fall in 2009 due to the global economic slowdown weexpect a quick recovery followed by growth to 8.4mn tourist arrivals in 2013, at the end of the forecastperiod.In common with many industries and many countries at present, the signals on the state of Brazil’stourism industry are best described as unclear and possibly as contradictory. The generally expressed view is that a decline in international tourist arrivals will be largely offset byincreases in internal tourism. Jeanine Pires, president of the Brazilian Institute of Tourism (Embratur), ismore optimistic. She recently stated that ‘The revenue generated by tourism [was] up 16.8% on 2007 -which had been our best year until then,’ and she remains upbeat for 2009. On the other hand, regional airline GOL reported that while passenger numbers for April were up onthose for March - which in turn were better than February. The April 2009 figure was nonetheless down14.8% compared with April 2008. Political Outlook We have upgraded Brazil's short-term political risk rating to 72.1 from 70.8 on the back of fallinginflation. Headline consumer price inflation in Brazil fell below 5.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) for the firsttime since March 2008. At 4.8% y-o-y, we believe that this is favourable for the country's social stabilityrating, which rose to 70.0 this month, from 65.0 previously. We note that should the inflation ratecontinue to fall over the coming months, we would further revise up our short-term political risk ratingsfor the country. Long-Term Outlook Still Bright While acknowledging the impact of the current recession, we remain bullish in the long-term regardingthe Brazilian economy. We believe that Brazil's economy has a lot going for it, ranging from an enviablearray of commodity resources, such as soy, sugar, iron ore, steel, and hydrocarbons (our oil and gas deskexpects Brazil to become a net exporter of oil by 2011), to a highly promising consumer segment. Weexpect the Brazilian consumer to continue to grow in prominence over the coming decade, as banklending will continue to be a driving force behind Brazil's economic performance - offering moresophisticated financial instruments to different sectors of the economy, where housing and agriculturalloans are still a very nascent phenomenon. Business Environment With an abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, and a government that is actively encouragingof foreign investment, in our view Brazil is one of Latin America's increasingly attractive places tooperate business activities. Furthermore, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's ambitious infrastructureinvestment plans should unlock opportunities across all major sectors, most notably the transport andenergy industries. Over-regulation, corruption-fighting and gang crime represent the key threats to thebusiness environment. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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