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Colombia Retail Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 16, 2009 - 50 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe Q409 BMI Colombia Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from US$107bnin 2008 to US$144bn by 2013. Underlying economic growth, a young and increasingly urban population,the rise in disposable income and greater numbers of working women are key factors behind the forecastgrowth in Colombia’s retail sales.Colombia’s nominal GDP was US$226.98bn in 2008, with a decline of 1.4% now assumed for 2009 asthe economy goes into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of 2.1% is now predicted by BMI between2008 and 2013. With the population increasing from 47.9mn in 2008 to an estimated 51.8mn by 2013,GDP per capita is forecast to rise nearly 38% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$6,541. Ourforecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$2,570 in 2008 to US$3,601 by2013. Domestic demand will continue to be the key driver for the growth in GDP, with improvements in thesecurity outlook feeding through to increased consumer and investor confidence. In 2006, 1.97mn foreigntourists visited Colombia, a 48% increase over the previous year. In 2005, 64.5% of the Colombian population was described by the UN as ‘active’, with 39.2% in thecrucial 20-44 age range. Just over three-quarters of the population was classified by the UN as urban(77.4%). By 2010, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 80%, with 38.5% in the 20-44age band and 67.3% of the population expected to be active. The retail sector benefits from Colombia’sstatus as the third most populous country in Latin America. According to data from the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (NationalAdministrative Department of Statistics, DANE), sales of clothes and textiles amounted to US$10.45bn in2008, 9.8% of the total retail market, while personal hygiene products recorded sales of US$7.84bn, a7.3% market share. Assuming constant market shares, BMI forecasts clothes and textiles sales ofUS$14.05bn by 2013, with personal hygiene products rising to US$10.54bn. BMI data show that the consumer electronic sub-sector was worth an estimated US$3.28bn in 2008, withsales forecast to rise by nearly 57%, to US$5.13bn, by 2013. Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticalsales stood at an estimated US$0.54bn in 2008, with end-period sales of US$0.89bn predicted, an increaseof more than 63%. Retail sales for our universe of Latin American countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$1,654bn,based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’smacroeconomic database amounts to US$3,011bn. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico together accounted foran estimated 76.8% of regional retail sales in 2008, with their combined share expected to slip to 76.6%by 2013. For Colombia, the estimated 2008 market share of 6.5% is expected to dip to 6.3% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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