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Angola Infrastructure Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 14, 2009 - 53 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractWe forecast construction industry real annual growth for 2009 of 2.3%, unchanged from the forecast wemade earlier this year. In contrast to the wider economy, construction sector growth should remainpositive, and BMI believes that there are opportunities in the transport and downstream oil and gassectors, though the growth rate for 2009 is a marked decline from the double-digit numbers estimated forprevious years. It should, however, be noted that forecasting is exceptionally difficult, as official dataonly cover up to 2003, forcing us to estimate our historical data from 2004 onwards. Real growth in fixedcapital formation/capital investment colors our forecasts. Fuelled by rising oil windfalls, capitalinvestment growth reached its peak in 2006. It continued registering double-digit growth in 2007 and2008. However, the decline in oil prices and the global financial crisis simultaneously reduced oilrevenues and investor risk appetite.Although oil prices bounced in H109 (and were trading at around US$67 per barrel in August 2009,compared with a low of US$35 per barrel in December 2008), they remain well below their July 2008peak. Also, of course, we expect Angola’s economy to contract in real terms in 2009. Against thisbackdrop, we continue to forecast a decline in the real rate of growth of total capital investment - from anestimated 20% in 2008 to 2% in 2009. The value of government capital investments, meanwhile, isexpected to decline from an estimated AOA401bn (US$5.4bn) in 2008 to AOA322bn (US$3.9bn) in2009. India will provide US$40mn in finance for a new railway in Huila province in Angola, according to statenews agency Angop (August 2009). The railway will run between Matala and Lubango. The constructionwill be overseen by Rail India Technical and Economic Services. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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