Next-Generation Carrier's Network - Planning for Business Transformation

Published by: Information Gatekeepers Inc

Published: Jun. 1, 2009

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Table of Figures

The Lightwave Network Series of Reports

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

General Reports on the Network

General Market Reports

Specific Systems Reports

Introduction

The Impact of Competitive Networks

Transformation Planning

Do We Change Networks?

Customer is King!

This Report

US Telecommunications Economic Forecast

General Economic Background

Telecom Economic Background

Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009

Telecommunications Capital Forecast

Telecommunications Economic Forecasts Summary

Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009

Survey of Next Generation Network Activities by Major Players

AT&T

BT (British Telecom) - “21CN’

Comcast

NTT (Japan)

Orange/FT (French Telecom)

Telstra (Australian)

Verizon

Qwest

Ciena

NeoPhotonics

Changing Face of the Network

Why Change Networks?

Cheaper Operation:

Cheaper to Grow

Need for More Capacity:

End-User Demand.

How the Network Is Changing

Historical Network

Recent Network

Future Network

“Watson, Come Here - I Need your Cell Number!”

The Next Generation Network

NGN - Characterization

Access

Speed

Flexibility

NGN - Architecture

NGN - Access

NGN - Transport

Local

Soft switches

MSPP

Metro DWDM

R-OADMs

IXC

R-OADMs

OC-768 and SONET Advances

IP

“Big Iron”

NGN - Control

New Competitors vs. Super Competitors View of Control

Control Forecast - A Compromise

1. Direct Control

2. Common Control and the Intelligent Network

3. NGN Control

Summary of NGN Forecast

Economic Analysis for Various NGN Advanced Access Architectures

Comparison of Three Major Approaches

BellSouth's Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)

AT&T's Fiber to the node (FTTN)

Verizon’s FTTP (Fiber to the Premise)

Summary of Fiber Requirements

An Economic Model NGN - AAA Architectural Differences

Fiber Required for Each Architecture

Cost of Fiber Needed for Each Architecture

AT&T’s New Plans for BellSouth - A Hybrid FTTC/FTTN

The Technologies of the Next Generation Network

Advanced Access Architectures

Verizon

AT&T

Bell South

Qwest

NGPONs - Advanced Options - 10-GPON and WDM-PON

10-GPON

WDM-PONs

Vendors of WDM-PON

Other WDM-PON Activities

Vendors of WDM - Listing and Summary of Status

ROADMs

Achieving SONET-like Control in Optical Networks

A New ROADM

Evolution to the Edge

NGN Standards Activities

ITU

IEFT

Comparison of ITU and IEFT NGN Views

Forecast for NGN Technologies

Advanced Access Architectures Forecast

Forecasts for Deployment

AT&T

Verizon

BellSouth

AAA Forecast Summary

AT&T

Verizon

BellSouth

Qwest

Forecast Size of Deployments

Forecast of Homes Passed

Penetration Rates

Growth of AAA and Reduction in xDSL

ROADM Forecast

Model for Forecast Core and Metro ROADMs

Assumptions of Model

Model for Forecast — Edge ROADMs

Systems — Forecast

US Edge ROADMs

US Market Forecast

Vendors for the NGN

Advanced Access Architecture Vendors

Acterna (acquired by JDSU)

ADC

Adtran

Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)

Alcatel-Lucent

Alloptic Inc

Amino Technologies plc

Avanex Corporation (now Oclaro)

Broadlight

Calix

Cisco

Conexant

Corrigent (now Orckit)

Entrisphere Inc. (Acquired by Ericsson)

Ericsson

Fiberxon (Now Source Photonics combined with Luminent)

Finisar Corporation

FlexLight Networks (Defunct)

Fujitsu

Genone3 Technologies Inc.

Hitachi Communication Technologies Ltd.

Humax USA Inc.

JDS Uniphase

Kreatel Communications AB (Acquired by Motorola)

LG Electronics

LightComm Technology

Marconi

Microsoft

Motorola

NeoPhotonics

Nortel

Novera Optics (owned by Nortel / LG JV)

OFS

O-Net Communications Ltd

Oplink Communications, Inc.

Optiviva Inc.

Optical Solutions (Acquired by Calix)

Osaki Electric Co. Ltd.

Paceon (Mitsubishi)

Passavé (Acquired by PMC-Sierra)

PMC-Sierra

Quantum Bridge Communications (Acquired by Motorola)

Salira Optical Network Systems

Scientific-Atlanta (Cisco)

Siemens

Source Photonics (Combined with Fiberxon and Luminent)

Tandberg Ltd. (Ericsson)

Tellabs

Terawave (Acquired by Occam Networks)

Tut Systems (Acquired by Motorola)

Vinci Systems, Inc. (Acquired by Tellabs)

Wave7 Optics

Worldwide Packets, Inc. (Acquired by Ciena)

Zhone Technologies

ROADM System Vendors

System Vendor Listing

Adva Optical Networking

Alcatel-Lucent

Ciena

Cisco

ECI

Ericsson

Fujitsu

Infinera

Huawei Technologies

Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) — Meriton (now Xtera)

Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)

Meriton Networks (now Xtera)

Movaz Networks (ADVA)

NEC America Inc.

Nistica

Nokia Siemens (NSN)

Nortel

OpVista Inc.

Tellabs

Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)

Table of Figures

Figure 1, Lightwave Network

Figure 2, Telecommunication Capital Expenditures Actual and Forecast

Figure 3, Telecommunications Economic Forecasts

Figure 4, Historical Network

Figure 5, Recent Network

Figure 6, Near Future Network

Figure 7, NGN - Characterization

Figure 8, Next Generation Network

Figure 9, Transformation from Opaque to Transparent

Figure 10, Control Migration to Network Edge

Figure 11, BellSouth FTTC

Figure 12, AT&T Uverse (FTTN)

Figure 13, Verizon FiOS (FTTP)

Figure 14, Fibers Required per Year for Each Architecture

Figure 15, Amount of Fibers for the Architectures

Figure 16, Length of Fiber for the Architectures

Figure 17, Fiber Costs of the Three Architectures

Figure 18, Fiber Cost per customer - Each Architecture

Figure 19, AT&T - BellSouth Hybrid FTTC

Figure 20, Fiber Required Upgrading to Hybrid FTTC

Figure 21, Identified Technologies of the NGN

Figure 22, ROADMs to the Network Edge

Figure 23, Differences between ITU and IEFT NGN Views

Figure 24: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative — All Technologies

Figure 25: Forecast Homes Passed Annually — By Company — All

Technologies

Figure 26: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households

Figure 27, AAA Growth vs. Legacy XDSL

Figure 28: ROADM System Unit Forecast — US

Figure 29: US Market — Change in Predominant Type of ROADM

over Time

Figure 30: US Edge ROADMs Systems

Figure 31: ROADMs Market Forecast — US

Figure 32: OADM vs. ROADM Market — US

Business Transformation Planning

The Telecommunications

Market Today

Next Generation Carrier's Network - Architectures, Economics and Forecasts

Next Generation

Carrier's Network:

Planning for Business Transformation

Is Google Going to Capture Telephony?

Active Optical Cables 2009 Live Charts

Active Optical Cables

Market Report 2009

Advanced Access Architectures 2008: AT&T, Verizon and Qwest Plans and Forecasts

Advanced Access Architectures 2008: AT&T, Verizon and Qwest Plans and Forecasts

FTTP/ FTTN: The RBOCs' Advanced Access Architectures - Equipment and Fiber Requirements

Cost Analysis of RBOC’s Advanced Access Architectures: FTTP, FTTN, FTTC

Bandwidth Needs Analysis of the RBOCs' Advanced Access Architectures: FTTP and FTTN

WiMAX: The Broadband Wireless MAN

The 4G Era: 802.16e

Market and Technology Assessment

Abstract

• The description of the planning environment — A framework that outlines the steps in the planning process.
• The general forecast for the U.S. economy and particularly the U.S. telcos.
• The competitive market in the U.S. facing today’s telecommunications company, including discussions of major factors in the changing market such as advanced access architectures, supercompetitors, and overbuild.
• A detailed approach to Business Transformation Planning — a “how to.”
• A survey of what major players are doing in business transformation planning.
• Interviews with some of the top thinkers in the telecommunications business today.
• The changing face of the network — why it is changing and how.
• Our characterization of the NGN — Access, Speed, and Flexibility.
• Our forecast for the Next Generation Network architecture — Access, Transport, and Control.
• A description of the major technology groups in the NGN — with forecasts for their deployment.
• A listing of major vendors of NGN hardware and software.
• A major Appendix will describe the process of “Vision Planning” — a technique for transformation planning.

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