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Steel Products Annual Review July 2009

Published by: CRISIL Ltd.

Published: Jul. 31, 2009 - 124 Pages


Table of Contents


Sections

Resilient Indian economy to support domestic steel industry amidst global economic slowdown

Executive summary

1.0 Introduction

2.0 Review

Global steel production growth turns negative in 2008

Global steel prices plummets with demand slump in second half of 2008

3.0 Global demand outlook

Steel demand to fall by 9-10 per cent in 2009-10

4.0 Domestic demand outlook

Domestic steel demand to recover faster

5.0 Cost structure and steel prices

Global steel prices to remain subdued over the next 5 years

6.0 Long steel industry

Charts

3.0 Global demand outlook

01 Demand methodology

5.0 Cost structure and steel prices

01 Price framework for commodity (steel, iron ore and coking coal)

6.0 Long steel industry

01 Structure of steel industry in India

02 Characteristics of domestic steel industry players

Figures

2.0 Review

01 Global crude steel production (1997-2008)

02 Monthly crude steel production (Jan 2008 - May 2009)

03 International steel prices (May 1995 - May 2009)

04 Finished steel consumption in India

05 Domestic steel prices (Jan 2007 - May 2009)

06 Raw material prices (Jan 2007-May 2009)

3.0 Global demand outlook

01 Global crude steel demand

02 End user consumption pattern of steel in the US in 2007 (per cent)

03 End user consumption pattern of steel in Europ

04 End user consumption pattern of steel in Japa

05 End user consumption pattern of steel in Chin

05 Motor vehicle production in China (2000-2008)

07 Fixed asset investment in real estate in China (2000-2008)

08 Global capacity addition

09 Global operating rates

4.0 Domestic demand outlook

01 Flat steel end use consumption pattern in India

02 Long steel end use consumption pattern in India

03 Demand for steel products in India

04 Performance of automobile industry in India

05 Steel making capacity: Announced & estimated capacity additions

06 Demand to capacity ratio in domestic steel industry

6.0 Long steel industry

01 Share of major players in total steel capacity

Tables

3.0 Global demand outlook

01 North America: Steel demand growth projection

02 Europe: Steel demand growth projection

03 Japan: Steel demand growth projection

04 China: Steel demand growth projection

4.0 Domestic demand outlook

01 Steel demand growth projection

02 Major gas pipelines commissioning over the next few years

03 Announced steel making capacity expansion plans

04 Domestic price forecast

5.0 Cost structure and steel prices

01 Raw material price forecast

02 Cost structure ($ per tonne)

03 Global steel price forecast

6.0 Long steel industry

01 Profitability outlook

02 Profitability of players with mines

03 Profitability of players without mines

04 Profitability of small integrated (SI) players

05 Profitability of small non-integrated (SNI) players

06 Profitability of Re-Rollers

Sections

1.0 Introduction

Types of steel products

2.0 Manufacturing process and technology

Iron ore bedding and blending

Coal bedding and blending

Steel making technologies:

New technologies

Products manufacturing process

3.0 Evolution of the steel industry

Pre-liberalisation scenario

Dawn of liberalisation in 1991

4.0 Review of steel industry (2002-03 to 2007-08)

Profitability

Demand

Prices

The raw material scenario

5.0 Player profiles

SAIL

Tata Steel

Essar Steel

Ispat Industries

JSW Steel Ltd

Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd

Bhushan Steel and Strips Ltd

Uttam Galva Steel Ltd

Box

1.0 Introduction

01 Properties of steel

Charts

1.0 Introduction

01 Properties added to steel by alloying elements

02 Categories of steel products

2.0 Manufacturing process and technology

01 Steel making - BF-BOF process

02 Steel making - EAF process

03 Steel making - Corex-BOF process

04 HR - Production process

05 CR - Production process

06 GP/GC - Production process

Figures

1.0 Introduction

01 Flat steel consumption pattern

02 Long steel consumption pattern

03 Production flat v/s long steel products

3.0 Evolution of the steel industry

01 Investments pos

02 Significant overcapacity in flat products

03 Decline in HR international prices

04 Imports aided by duty cuts

05 Recurring losses erode net worth

4.0 Review of steel industry (2002-03 to 2007-08)

01 Aggregate OPM & NPM

02 Imports increased to meet the domestic consumption

03 Exports drove growth in volumes

04 Domestic consumption

05 Domestic consumption and exports increases steel prices

06 HRC prices - Domestic and international

07 Increase in coke prices

08 Iron ore international prices on upswing since 2004

Tables

1.0 Introduction

01 Categories of carbon steel

3.0 Evolution of the steel industry

01 Employee productivity in 1990-91

02 Share of public and private sector

5.0 Player profiles

01 SAIL - Equity holding details of March 2009

02 SAIL - Production performance

03 SAIL - Plant-wise information on capacity and key products manufactured (2007-08)

04 SAIL - Key financial indicators

05 Tata Steel Ltd - Shareholding pattern as of March 2009

06 Tata Steel Ltd - Production performance

07 Tata Steel Ltd - Plant-wise information on capacity and key products manufactured (2007-08)

08 Tata Steel Ltd - Key financial indicators (consolidated)

09 Essar Steel - Production performance

10 Essar Steel - Plant-wise information on capacity and key products manufactured

11 Essar Steel - Key financial indicators

12 Ispat Industries Ltd - Shareholding pattern as of December, 2008

13 Ispat Industries Ltd - Production performance

14 Ispat Industries Ltd - Plant-wise information on capacity by key products manufactured (2007-08)

15 Ispat Industries Ltd - Key financial indicators

16 JSW Ltd - Shareholding pattern as of March 2009

17 JSW Ltd - Production performance

18 JSW Ltd - Plant-wise information on capacity and key products manufactured (2007-08)

19 JSW Ltd - Key financial indicators

20 RINL - Plant-wise information on capacity and key products manufactured (2007-08)

21 RINL - Key financial indicators

22 JSPL Ltd - Shareholding pattern as of March 2009

23 JSPL Ltd - Production performance

24 JSPL Ltd - Plant-wise information on capacity and key products manufactured (2007-08)

Tables

25 JSPL Ltd - Key financial indicators

26 Bhushan Steel Ltd - Shareholding pattern as of December 2008

27 Bhushan Steel Ltd - Plant-wise information on capacity and key products manufactured (2007-08)

28 Bhushan Steel Ltd - Key financial indicators

29 Uttam Galva Steel Ltd - Shareholding pattern as of March, 2009

30 Uttam Galva Steel Ltd - Plant-wise information on capacity by key products manufactured (2007-08)

31 Uttam Galva Steel Ltd - Key financial indicators

Sections

1.0 Demand

2.0 Supply

3.0 Prices

4.0 Trade and tariffs

5.0 Financial performance

6.0 Global steel industry

Charts

1.0 Demand

01 Flat products

02 CR flats

03 Coated products

04 Long products

Figures

3.0 Prices

01 HR Coils: Domestic price and Landed Cost

02 HR Coils: International prices

03 CR Coil: Domestic price and landed costs

04 CR Coils: International prices

05 GP / GC Coils: Domestic price and landed costs

06 GP/GC Coils: International prices

07 Wire rods: International prices

08 Steel billets: International prices

09 Merchant bars: International prices

10 Reinforcement bars: Domestic prices

Tables

1.0 Demand

01 Finished steel products: Apparent Consumption

02 Flat products: Apparent Consumption

03 Long products: Apparent Consumption

04 Steel products: Apparent consumption (2003-04)

05 Steel products: Apparent consumption (2004-05)

06 Steel products: Apparent consumption (2005-06)

07 Steel products: Apparent consumption (2006-07)

08 Steel products: Apparent consumption (2007-08)

09 Steel products: Apparent consumption (2008-09)

2.0 Supply

01 Share of public sector and private sector

02 Finished steel products: Production

03 Flat products: Production

04 HR flats: Producer-wise capacity

05 HR flats: Producer-wise production (includes captive consumption)

06 HR coils: Producer-wise capacity

07 HR coils: Producer-wise production

08 CR flats: Producer-wise capacity

09 CR flats: Producer-wise production (includes captive consumption)

10 GP/GC sheets: Producer-wise capacity

11 GP/GC sheets: Producer-wise production

12 Long products: Production

13 Bars and rods: Production

14 Structurals: Production

15 Railway materials: Production

4.0 Trade and tariffs

01 Finished steel products: Exports

02 Flat products: Exports

03 Long products: Exports

04 Finished steel products: Imports

05 Flat products: Imports

06 Long products: Imports

07 Steel products: Customs duty

08 Steel products: Excise duty

5.0 Financial performance

01 Industry: Cumulative financials

02 Financial performance of key players (2007-08)

6.0 Global steel industry

01 Finished steel: World apparent consumption

02 Crude steel: World production

03 World steel: Top 10 producers

04 Steel: International trade flows 2007

05 Steel: Major exporters (2007)

06 Steel: Major importers (2007)

07 Steel: Net exporters (2007)

08 Steel: Net importers (2007)

09 Steel: Largest companies in the world (2008, 2007)

Abstract

The global steel industry has been hard hit by the global economic slowdown, with steel production registering negative growth of 1.1 per cent. As the deceleration led to slump in demand, international steel prices fell sharply, causing significant downward revision in the contract prices of raw material. After an estimated decline of 9-10 per cent in 2009, global steel demand is expected to witness improvement in growth from 2010 to 2014. Domestic demand is likely to be relatively resilient and recover faster, and is expected to witness growth of 8-9 per cent from 2009-10 to 2013-14. However, with expectations of continued weakness in global operating rates, steel prices in the international as well as domestic markets are likely to be subdued. Accordingly, the profitability of Indian steel players will remain under pressure. However, the profitability is expected to improve marginally over 2008-09, supported by significant fall in raw material prices

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