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Cement Annual Review July 2009

Published by: CRISIL Ltd.

Published: Jul. 31, 2009 - 108 Pages


Table of Contents


Sections

Price decline to hurt profitability of cement companie

Executive Summary

1.0 Cement demand growth to slow down marginally

North: Independent housing will drive cement demand

South: IT/ITeS slowdown will negatively impact cement demand

East: Housing and Industrial investments to drive growth

West: Demand growth primarily in urban areas

Central: Demand will remain subdued

2.0 Significant capacities to be added

Capacity expansions of 90 million tonnes over next 5 years

South India will have maximum capacity additions

Existing players will have a huge share in new capacities

Blending will remain at current levels

Operating rates will dip over the next 2 years

3.0 Decline in prices to hurt profitability

Cement prices to decline over the next couple of years

Profitability will be negatively impacted

Box

1.0 Cement demand growth to slow down marginally

01 Cement demand forecasting methodology

Chart

Executive Summary

01 Indian cement industry on a map

Figures

1.0 Cement demand growth to slow down marginally

01 GDP growth, cement demand growth and multiplier

02 Break-up of cement demand

03 Break-up of cement demand from infrastructure segment

04 Cement production and consumption in North

05 Cement production and consumption in South

06 Cement production and consumption in East

07 Cement production and consumption in West

08 Cement production and consumption in Central

2.0 Significant capacities to be added

01 Installed capacity additions

02 Share in installed capacity additions by regions (2009-14)

03 Installed capacity additions by regions

04 Player-wise capacity additions

05 Blending ratio and share of blended cement

06 Cement operating rates

07 Cement incremental demand & effective capacity additions

08 North operating rates

09 South operating rates

10 East operating rates

11 West operating rates

12 Central operating rates

3.0 Decline in prices to hurt profitability

01 Cement Operating rates & Prices

Tables

3.0 Decline in prices to hurt profitability

01 Expected price decline by regions

02 Operational performance of cement companies

Sections

1.0 Industry characteristics

Industry structure

Cost elements

Cement industry - Regional in nature

Demand drivers

Evolution of the cement industry

2.0 Products and technology

Types of cement

Ready mix concrete (RMC)

White cement

3.0 Cement manufacturing process

4.0 Region-wise scenario

North

South

East

West

Central region

5.0 Player profile

Associated Cement Companies Ltd

Ambuja Cements Ltd

Grasim Industries Ltd

India Cements Ltd

Jaiprakash Associates Ltd

Madras Cements Ltd

Shree Cement Ltd

UltraTech Cement Ltd

Charts

1.0 Industry characteristics

01 Cement - Factors influencing demand

02 Cement - Factors affecting domestic supply

3.0 Cement manufacturing process

01 Dry process

02 Wet process

03 Cement manufacturing process

Figures

1.0 Industry characteristics

01 Industry structure

02 Coal requirement v/s coal allocation

03 Regionwise cement consumption

04 Infrastructure spending in India

2.0 Products and technology

01 Varietywise cement production

3.0 Cement manufacturing process

01 Production break up of processes

4.0 Region-wise scenario

01 North: Market share break up

02 Prices in north region

03 South - Market share break up

04 Prices in south region

05 East market share break up

06 Prices in east region

07 West - Market share break up

08 Prices in west region

09 Central - Market share break up

10 Prices in Central region

5.0 Player profile

01 ACC Ltd - Break up of sales

02 ACC Ltd - Cement despatches by states

03 ACC Ltd - Market share & rank by states

04 Ambuja Cements Ltd - Break up of sales

05 Ambuja Cements Ltd - Cement despatches by states

06 Ambuja Cements Ltd - Market share & rank by states

07 Grasim Industries Ltd - Break up of sales

08 Grasim Industries Ltd - Cement despatches by states

09 Grasim Industries Ltd - Market share & rank by states

10 India Cements Ltd - Break up of sales

11 India Cements Ltd - Cement despatches by states

12 India Cements Ltd - Market share & rank by states

13 Jaiprakash Associates Ltd - Break up of sales

14 Jaiprakash Associates Ltd - Cement despatches by states

15 Jaiprakash Associates Ltd - Market share & rank by states

Figures

5.0 Player profile

16 Madras Cements Ltd - Break up of sales

17 Madras Cements Ltd - Cement despatches by states

18 Madras Cements Ltd - Market share & rank by states

19 Shree Cement Ltd - Break up of sales

20 Shree Cement Ltd - Cement despatches by states

21 Shree Cement Ltd - Market share & rank by states

22 UltraTech Cement Ltd - Break up of sales

23 UltraTech Cement Ltd - Cement despatches by states

24 UltraTech Cement Ltd - Market share & rank by states

Tables

1.0 Industry characteristics

01 Industry status

02 Power & fuel requirement in cement manufacturing process

03 Events during the period of government control

04 Events during the period of partial decontrol

05 Events post decontrol

2.0 Products and technology

01 White cement - Capacity and production

4.0 Region-wise scenario

01 North - Capacity/ Production/ operating rate

02 South - Capacity/ Production/ operating rate

03 East - Capacity/ Production/ operating rate

04 West - Capacity/ Production/ operating rate

05 Central region - Capacity/ Production/ operating rate

5.0 Player profile

01 ACC Ltd

02 Ambuja Cements Ltd

03 Grasim Industries Ltd

04 India Cements Ltd

05 Jaiprakash Associates Ltd

06 Madras Cements Ltd

07 Shree Cement Ltd

08 UltraTech Cement Ltd

Section

1.0 Industry statistics

Figure

01 Industry statistics

01 Coal — International prices and landed cost of imports

Tables

01 Industry statistics

01 Capacity additions in 2008-09

02 Cement — Playerwise installed capacity trends

03 Cement — Playerwise production trends

04 Cement — Operating Rates (based on the installed capacity)

05 Cement — Aggregate producer market shares

06 Mini cement plant — Regionwise capacity trends

07 Mini cement plants — Regionwise production trends

08 Mini cement plants — Regionwise operating rates

09 Cement — Statewise trends in per capita consumption

10 Cement — Trend in Net Sales

11 Cement — Operating profit margins of companies

12 Cement — Net profit margins of companies

13 Debt- Equity Ratio

14 Return on Capital Employed

15 Gypsum — Domestic prices

16 Lignite — Domestic prices

17 Company-wise limestone cost (Rs/tonne of limestone)

18 Company-wise coal costs (Rs/tonne of cement)

19 Company-wise coal cost (Rs/tonne of coal)

20 Company-wise coal consumption

21 Company-wise power consumption

22 Cement — Statewise sales tax

23 Cement — Customs duty

24 Cement — Excise duty

25 Royalty charges — From 1971 to 2002

26 Royalty charges w.e.f. from August 2007

Industry statistics

Abstract

Cement sector has witnessed an impressive run over the past few years, with an improvement seen across key operational parameters such as operating rates, prices and profitability. Housing sector is the single largest consumer of cement in India. Over the last 5 years, India has witnessed a real estate boom, especially in the metros and tier I cities. This has been the primary driver for cement demand, which has grown at a healthy CAGR of 9.3 per cent over the past 5 years. Going forward, CRISIL Research expects cement demand growth from housing segment to slow down. However, this will be offset to an extent by an increase in cement consumption from the infrastructure sector. In addition, an increase in independent housing projects in semi-urban and rural areas will provide support to cement demand. As a result, we expect cement demand to register a CAGR of 7.8 per cent over the next 5 years.

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