2009 Mobile-Banking and Smartphone Forecast: Essential Strategies for a Fast-Growing, Evolving Market

Published by: Javelin Strategy & Research

Published: Sep. 1, 2009 - 48 Pages

Table of Contents

Overview

Primary Questions

Key Findings

Methodology

Executive Summary

Key Recommendations

Five-Year Mobile-Banking Forecast

Five Bullish Signs Point To Growing Adoption of Mobile Banking

1. More Banks are Offering and Promoting Mobile Banking

2. More Consumers are Trying Mobile Banking.

3. More Consumers are Buying Smartphones.

4. More Consumers are Downloading Mobile Applications.

5. More Vendors are Offering Mobile-Banking and Payment Products.

Five Obstacles for Mobile Banking - and What Financial Institutions Can Do to Minimize Them

1. Consumers Don’t Understand Mobile Banking.

2. Poor Design, Lack of Consumer Involvement Will Limit Mobile Banking.

3. Historic Recession Hinders Innovation

4. Uncertainty Over Mobile-Banking ROI

5. Uncertainty Over Mobile Payments

Table of Figures

Figure 1: Forecasts for Mobile-Banking Availability and Actual Users

Figure 2: Millions of Mobile-Banking Users and Percentages of Users

Figure 3: Why Certain Mobile-Phone Owners Have Not Tried Mobile Banking

Figure 4: Last Time Used Mobile Banking

Figure 5: Market Segments With Significantly Higher Use of Mobile Banking in Past 30 Days Cumulatively

Figure 6: Mobile-Phone Owners Who are Likely to Buy a Smartphone

Figure 7: Number and Percentage of U.S. Adults Owning Smartphones

Figure 8: Top Four U.S. Wireless Carriers by Mobile Banking Customer Penetration (Last 30 Days)

Figure 9: U.S. Wireless Carriers by Rank, Revenues, Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), Customers, Employees

and Networks

Figure 10: Type of Wireless Plan Purchased

Figure 11: Percentage of Consumers Who Have Purchased Objects on Mobile Devices

Figure 12: Features of Vendors’ Standard, General Release Product (2008)

Figure 13: Likelihood that Non-Mobile Bankers Will Try Mobile Banking

Figure 14: Customer Experience and Business Impact

Figure 15: How Various Payment Technologies Shape the Payments Landscape

Figure 16: Last Time Conducted Mobile Banking by Online Bankers vs. All Consumers

Figure 17: Data and Text Plans of Consumers With Mobile vs. Smartphone Owners

Figure 18: Reasons for Not Trying Mobile Banking (By Likely Users)

Abstract

• Features Javelin’s five-year forecasts for mobilebanking usage; the growing availability of mobile banking at primary financial institutions; and smartphone adoption, which currently is driving mobile banking.
• Analyzes five key factors fueling adoption of mobile banking, including the role of the Apple iPhone and other smartphones and the race to develop basic thinclient “wrapper applications” that integrate into the institution’s mobile online site.
• Identifies five key obstacles for mobile banking and outlines how financial institutions can minimize them.
• Examines mobile-banking penetration by the largest wireless carriers, with AT&T Wireless boasting the greatest number thanks largely to the popular iPhone, while Verizon lags behind but is positioning itself to expand its role in mobile banking in 2010 with the planned introduction of the iPhone and faster LTE 4G networks.

• How fast will mobile-banking availability and adoption grow over the next five years?
• How long before it becomes a must-have banking channel?
• How fast will smartphone ownership grow during that period?
• Who are the first adopters?
• What key factors are driving the growth of mobile banking?
• What obstacles could limit the spread of mobile banking - and what can financial institutions and vendors do to minimize those issues?

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