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Australia Agribusiness Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 4, 2009 - 52 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Australia Agricultural SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
Supply Demand Analysis
Australia Rice Outlook
Table: Australia Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Australia Grains Outlook
Table: Australia Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
Australia Dairy Outlook
Table: Australia Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Australia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Australia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Australia Livestock Outlook
Australia Livestock Outlook
Table: Australia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Australian Sugar Outlook
Table: Australia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
Corn
Table: Corn
Rice
Table: Rice
Soy
Table: Soybean
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table: Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
Food Consumption
Food consumption indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013
Confectionery
Confectionery Sales Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013
Canned Food
Canned Food Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013
Trade
Food & Drink Trade Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013
Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Australia MGR Sales by Format -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) -- Historical Data And Forecasts
Macroeconomic Forecast
Australia - Economic Activity
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

Just as Australia's agricultural sector appeared to be breaking free from the long drought that has grippedthe country for most of the decade, fears are now rising of further dry conditions caused by the El Niñophenomenon. At the beginning of August, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported that conditionswere increasingly indicating that this would be an El Niño year. The phenomenon, technically known asthe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), typically causes high temperatures and droughts in the AsiaPacific region and heavy rains in South America.

If the coming Southern Summer is indeed dry as feared, we would be forced to reduce our forecasts for2010 crop production as yields are once again struck by water shortages. This would be a cruel blow tofarmers who have seen crops ruined by dry weather in a number of years this decade. In 2009, grainproduction increased dramatically from levels seen in 2007 and 2008 owing to the greater availability ofwater. El Niño could put a stop to the continued recovery of the sector for another year, though we do notbelieve production will drop back to the level seen in 2008 even if the phenomenon does indeedmaterialise.

Australia's dairy sector is also under pressure, though it is now low prices rather than the weather which isthe main difficulty for farmers. In July, the main dairy processors announced that the price they paidfarmers for milk would be cut drastically in the coming year. Farmers will now be receiving less thanAUD0.30 per litre of milk. For many this will be below the cost of production. Following the long yearsof drought, this new blow will see more farmers leave the sector as they are unable to cope with mountingdebt. This will see milk production fall again in 2010 following a small recovery this year.

Despite this further setback, in the longer term we still see a bright future for the sector. As economicgrowth recovers, increasing demand for dairy products from emerging markets and restricted supplyowing to the drawdown in dairy herds in major producers should see prices climb back up. We thereforeexpect milk production to see strong growth towards the end of our forecast period.

One sector already benefiting from a supply deficit this year is Australia's sugar industry. Tight globalsupply, mainly due to the collapse of sugar production in India, has driven a rapid rise in prices through2009. This will bring a much needed windfall for Australia's sugar sector, which has been in decline inrecent years. The high prices will go to making up for the poor production level with the 2010 sugar canecrop again negatively affected by heavy rains in Queensland. The rate of conversion of sugar cane landfor other uses should also be lower now following the difficulties in the Australian property market.

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