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Hong Kong Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 4, 2009 - 88 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe year 2009 has been a tough one for the shipping sector: container freight rates have plunged, whileindustry observers have issued profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid-bulk sectorhas remained afloat, as tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry-bulk shipping fortunes havefluctuated from all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortuneshave become increasingly tied to China's raw material needs.For the Q409 Hong Kong Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for 2009 for total tonnagethroughput and container volumes at Hong Kong's ports, taking into account, where available, the mostrecent monthly throughput data. BMI uses the main port, the port of Hong Kong, as an example, revisingour 2009 throughput forecasts for this port. We believe that for the whole of 2009 the port's total tonnagethroughput will fall by 16.85% y-o-y, with container throughput set to decline by 18.85%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Hong Kong shipping sector.We predict that a gradual recovery in the ports' throughput will begin in 2010. This is based our CountryRisk Desk's forecast that Hong Kong's total trade will increase by 4.65% in 2010. Using the port of HongKong as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will grow by 3.06%, whilecontainer volumes will increase by 3.77%, in 2010. This estimate will see the port handling a total of222.3mn tonnes and 20.625mn TEUs in 2010. We have also calculated expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid-term (2011-2013). For Hong Kong's main port, we predict average yearly changes in the total tonnage throughput andcontainer volumes for the period. This allows us to predict whether or not these changes will enable theport to reclaim its pre-downturn level of tonnage throughput and to reverse port's 2009 container declineduring our forecast period. Hong Kong's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Hong Kong's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009,BMI expects Hong Kong's imports to decline by 7.5% and its exports to fall by 7.3%. A gradual recoveryis forecast to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 4.65%. Also in this report, BMI predictsaverage yearly change in the Hong Kong's total trade over the rest of the mid-term (2011-2013). BMI does not expect the Hong Kong's current main trade partners of the mainland China, the US, Japan,Singapore, South Korea, Germany and the UK to change dramatically over the mid-term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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