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Russia Tourism Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 2, 2009 - 57 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractTourism OverviewAfter uninspiring growth in foreign visitor arrivals in the previous two years, arrivals were up 3% yearon-year (y-o-y) in 2008, according to national data sources. The same official data source records a sharpfall in visitors in the first quarter of 2009, with numbers down by 11% compared with the correspondingperiod in 2008. As regards source countries for arrivals (outside of the former Soviet Union) in Q109, thefigures show negative growth in the number of visitors from major source markets such as Germany, theUS, Italy, the UK and China. Hospitality Following a favourable performance last year, the hospitality sector is currently in the grip of a sharpdownturn. Based on new data series, BMI estimates that there was an annual rise of 18% and 7% inforeign and domestic resident tourist nights, respectively, in 2008. However, for this year we forecast thatthe number of foreign and domestic overnight stays will fall by nearly 9% and 6% year-on-year (y-o-y),respectively. Although, the total number of overnight stays is anticipated to stabilise next year. Forecast Scenario We have made revisions this quarter to some our growth forecasts for Ukraine, Kazakhstan and theeurozone - key source markets for tourists to Russia. Given the pace of economic decline in thesemarkets the outlook for foreign visitors in 2009 remains extremely poor. Taking into account official dataon arrivals in the early months of this year, BMI maintains its forecast of an annual decline in foreigntourist arrivals to Russia of 12% in 2009. Relatively high room rates in the accommodation sector -despite reported falls in hotel rates in major Russian cities this year - are also likely to have a negativeeffect on the tourism sector. In line with broad economic recovery in key source markets in 2010, weexpect a slight pick up in arrivals next year. In addition, although we believe weakness of the rouble willcontinue this year, appreciation of the currency is forecast during 2010 - a factor working againstrecovery in foreign tourism next year. Growth in arrivals over the remainder of the forecast period to2013 is also expected to remain subdued. Aeroflot The Russian national airline Aeroflot carried 3.9mn passengers in H109, a marked fall of just over 12%y-o-y, while passenger numbers were down by 11% in June compared with the same month in 2008. Thedata, though, appear to show an easing of the downturn in passenger traffic recorded in the first fewmonths of 2009. Hilton Hotels Corporation Hilton Hotels Corporation (HHC) will open the new 200-room Doubletree by Hilton Sochi Adler inSochi, south west Russia, at the end of 2011. This will be the third Russian city to have a Doubletree byHilton property, with the 188-room Doubletree by Hilton Novosibirsk set to open in Q309 and the 288-room Doubletree by Hilton Perm scheduled to open at the start of 2010. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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