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Hungary Freight Transport Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Sep. 1, 2009 - 62 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractIn a sign of the impact of the recession, Allami Autopalya Kezelo (AAK), the Hungarian motorwaymanagement company, said its sales of electronic motorway stickers (also known as vignettes) fell by 2%year-on-year in H109. This was the first time in five years that there had been an absolute fall in stickersales. AAK’s H109 revenue was also down, by 4% yoy. It calculated that overall motorway traffic haddropped by 5% yoy during the first half. Sales of monthly, weekly, and daily stickers for commercialvehicles dropped by 6%, 3% and 7% respectively; sales of annual stickers were unchanged. The onlygrowth was registered in the sales of four-day motorway toll stickers, which rise by 1% on year-earlierlevels.Going forward, we expect rail freight growth to slow, as MÁV works through its restructuring now thatits cargo unit has been taken over by Rail Cargo Austria (RCA). As a result of all these and other smallchanges, we now expect total freight carried across all modes, measured in mntkm, to grow by an annualaverage of 1.2% across the 2009-2013 forecast period. However, MAV is modernising its fleet, and hasrecently agreed a deal for 30 FLIRTs from Swiss company Stadler. Improving speed and efficiency iscrucial for the rail sector, in order for it to compete with road haulage. Presently, road is considered thequickest of the two transport systems, but rail networks are becoming faster, increasing theirattractiveness. Also, rail is more environmentally-friendly, and therefore likely to receive greatergovernment and EU support than the road sector. One huge disadvantage is the presence of powerfulunions in Hungary’s rail sector. In 2008 the VDSzSz union held strikes in February, April, July andDecember. According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP rose by 0.7% in 2008,0.2pps faster than overall GDP, which we estimate to have increased by 0.5%. For the 2009-2013 forecastperiod, we expect that the transport and communications sector will outpace the economy as a whole, butagain by a narrow margin. It will achieve average annual growth of 0.8%, versus 0.7% for overall GDP.The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$13.9bn in nominal terms by 2013,representing 8.7% of Hungary’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 299,300people, or 7.7% of the labour force, in 2008. We see the people employed figure falling marginally to296,300 by 2013, although it will remain constant in relative terms at 7.7% of the total labour force(Hungary’s labour force is dwindling slightly as the population ages). As the central road building policy continues to be implemented, albeit at a reduced pace, and vehicleownership continues to spread, road freight will see growth. Hungarian membership of the EU has helpedboost international road haulage. The economic contraction that we project for the eurozone will be aparticular problem for Hungarian exporters, as well as weighing on inwards FDI and bank lending. Weexpect average annual growth for 2009-2013 to reach 0.7%. Initially boosted by the surge in budgetairlines, but now facing a downturn in the European air travel cycle, airfreight will experience an averageannual increase of 1.1%. Our forecast for pipeline throughput is now 1.0%. Inland waterway and railfright carried will grow at the slowest average annual rates, 0.3% and 0.9%, respectively. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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