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Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: Sep. 2, 2009 - 44 Pages
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Vietnam Textiles SWOT
- Vietnam Apparel SWOT
- Vietnam Political SWOT
- Vietnam Economics SWOT
- Vietnam Business Environment SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- General
- General: Past Headlines
- Cotton
- Cotton: Past Headlines
- Synthetics
- Synthetics: Past Headlines
- Textiles
- Textiles: Past Headlines
- Clothing
- Clothing: Past Headlines
- Vietnam Industry Forecast Scenario
- Textiles And Clothing Market Outlook
- Textiles
- Clothing
- Table: Textiles And Clothing Production And International Trade, 2006-2013
- Long-Term Outlook
- Table: Textiles And Clothing Production And International Trade - Long Term Forecasts, 2011-2018
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Vietnam - Economic Activity
- Global Textiles And Clothing Market Overview
- Background: International Trade In Textiles
- Output And Trends
- Global Fibres Market Outlook
- Cotton
- Wool
- Table: Global Fibre Prices
- Synthetic Fibres
- Company Profiles
- Fast Retailing
- Gap
- Table: Gap Key Financial Data
- Table: Gap Income Statement (US$mn)
- Inditex
- Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Global Assumptions
- Table: BMI’s Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011
- Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
- Table: Key Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average against US dollar)
- Methodology
AbstractAlthough still a medium-sized textiles and clothing (T&C) producer, Vietnam has delivered impressivegrowth and pushed its way up the world rankings at an accelerated rate. BMI ranks it as number 37 in theworld by T&C manufacturing value added. In nominal terms, we estimate that was US$6.16bn in 2008.
Another sign of Vietnam’s dynamism is the fact that it is the second most important supplier of T&C tothe US, after China. We estimate Vietnam’s combined T&C exports totaled US$9.71 in 2008. Theindustry faces the challenge of two difficult years, with falling demand, low investment levels and apotential protectionist backlash in world trade. BMI believes the industry will be hard hit, but will comeout the other side in 2011 well positioned for recovery.
We estimate that, taken together, Vietnamese T&C manufacturing value added, which expanded by anestimated 8.5% in 2007, slowed to 7.0% in 2008 and will have its worst recent year in 2009 at 1.4%. Nextyear we will see a recovery begin to take place (growth of 4.3%), after which it will gather further pacewith expansion of 8.4% in 2011. In the five years through to 2008, BMI estimates that average annualgrowth of manufacturing value added was 8.0%, just ahead of GDP at 7.8%. In the five years through to2013, we see the pace of growth falling to an average of 6.0%, behind the average annual GDP expansionof 6.1%. BMI expects T&C exports growth to be 0.9% in 2009, at US$9.80bn, with imports contractingby 1.7%, to US$7.20bn. Export growth, which averaged 20.1% in the five years through to 2008, shouldreduce through to 6.6% in the five years to 2013, mainly because of the impact of the 2009 recession.
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