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Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jun. 11, 2009 - 55 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Agricultural SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
Market Overview
Supply Demand Analysis
Indonesia Sugar Outlook
Table: Indonesia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Indonesia Cocoa Outlook
Table: Indonesia Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Indonesia Dairy Outlook
Table: Indonesia: Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Indonesia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Indonesia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Indonesia Grains Outlook
Industry Forecast - Indonesia Grains Outlook
Table: Indonesia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Indonesia Livestock Outlook
Table: Indonesia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Market Strategy - Grains Update
Corn
Table: Corn
Soybean
Table: Soybean
Rice
Table: Rice
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Market Strategy Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
Food Consumption
Table: Indonesia Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Confectionery
Table: Indonesia Selected Food Subsectors Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Indonesia Food & Drink Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Table: Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format (US$bn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Indonesia Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Economic Activity
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
Special Feature - Global Tobacco Outlook
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

The year just past will be remembered as a proud year for Indonesian agriculture. In 2008, the countryachieved self-sufficiency in the production of rice and corn. These were long-held goals for Indonesia'sleaders and were given extra significance by the turbulence in the world markets for agricultural productsover 2008.

Becoming a net exporter of rice, the staple food, is a particularly significant accomplishment that hasbeen achieved only once before in the country's recent history. The heady forecasts of up to 2mn tonnesof rice exports in 2009 have now come down to a more realistic 100,000 tonnes, but another large harvestthis year could see that figure increase in 2010.

While the government was glad to crow about the achievement, especially so close to an election, manysmall farmers found 2008 to be a less happy year. Rice production in Indonesia is still dominated bysmall-scale farms on tiny plots of land. More than half of Indonesia's farmers own less than 0.5 hectares(ha) of land. Much of the extra revenue from high prices and large crops was eaten up by increased inputcosts leaving farmers little better off.

Farmers are supposed to have access to subsidised fertiliser from the government. However, the task ofgetting the reduced-price product to its intended recipient across the vast Indonesian archipelago is oftentoo much. Indonesia's slow-moving and oft corrupt bureaucracy means that some of the fertiliser is neversent out and some disappears along the way. In 2009, things look to be little improved as by thebeginning of March only just over half of Indonesia's rice-growing districts had submitted their requestsfor subsidised fertiliser according to reports in the local press. The requests were supposed to have beensubmitted by December.

The problem of land fragmentation, poor bureaucracy and infrastructure will continue to dog Indonesia'sagricultural sector. Past governments have tried to solve the cramped conditions on the main islands bymoving people onto outer islands, but the projects were fraught with problems and have been abandoned.Agriculture still employs 40% of Indonesia's labour force, and until the economy grows fast enough todraw more people from the fields there is little chance for the development of modern, efficientagriculture on the country's densely populated main island of Java.

One avenue of growth for the sector currently being explored is for large-scale investments on the outerislands. Poor infrastructure has traditionally hampered the exploitation of land outside the main areas ofJava, Sumatra and to a lesser extent Sulawesi. However, if large enough projects could be established,this problem could be overcome.

The government is currently touting a 585,000ha area of land in Merauke, West Papua province, forinvestment. There has been interest from Middle Eastern investors keen to boost food security in the wakeof the rapid food price rises of 2008. While the financial crisis has dampened interest for the moment, inthe years to come investors are likely to come back. This could see the development of large-scalemodern farms aimed at the export market.

While developments such as this could see production rise, we warn that investing in the outer islandswill come with its fair share of risk. Apart from the infrastructure problems, Papua has a deep-rootedseparatist movement and large investments perceived to be for the benefit of outsiders in Java could wellrile the local population. Other islands likely to be considered for large investments, such as Borneo,could also prove hostile to large developments.

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