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South Korea Agribusiness Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jun. 19, 2009 - 53 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
South Korea Agricultural SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
Market Overview
Supply Demand Analysis
South Korea Rice Outlook
Table: South Korea Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: South Korea Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - South Korea Grain Outlook
Table: South Korea Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: South Korea Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: South Korea Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: South Korea Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - South Korea Dairy Outlook
Table: South Korea Milk Production & Consumption
Table: South Korea Butter Production & Consumption
Table: South Korea Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: South Korea Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: South Korea Milk Production & Consumption
Table: South Korea Butter Production & Consumption
Table: South Korea Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: South Korea Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - South Korea Livestock Outlook
Industry Forecast - South Korea Livestock Outlook
Table: South Korea Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: South Korea Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: South Korea Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: South Korea Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: South Korea Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: South Korea Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Market Strategy - Grains Update
Corn
Table: Corn
Soybean
Table: Soybean
Rice
Table: Rice
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Market Strategy Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Table: Selected Food Subsectors Value/Volume Sales (US$mn, unless otherwise stated) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Trade
Table: South Korea Food & Drink Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Table: South Korea MGR Value Sales by Format (US$bn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Economic Activity
Table: South Korea - Economic Activity
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

Korea's major crop, rice, will have an unexpectedly good 2008/2009 harvest, with forecast productionrising 9.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 4.84mn tonnes, despite a reduction in the area planted. The growthwill be the first increase in rice production in Korea since 2005. Despite the increase this year, however,we expect the long-term falling trend in rice production to continue over our forecast period. Increasingpressure on land will see the area planted continuing to fall despite yield improvements.

The major story in South Korean agriculture this past quarter has been attempts to secure agricultural landoverseas. Korea is in the vanguard of wealthy food-deficit countries attempting to shore up food securityby purchasing land in poorer countries for agricultural investments. The Gulf states are following asimilar strategy. The biggest, and one of the most controversial, such attempts was the deal betweenDaewoo Logistics and the government of Madagascar to lease 1.3mn hectares of land in the country forcorn production.

Unsurprisingly, deals of this nature have been arousing nationalist sentiment in the countries targeted.The land lease in Madagascar has now been called off following the ousting of president MarcRavalomanana. New President Andry Rajoelina vocally protested against the deal in his successfulunseating of Ravalomanana.

Africa is not the only target for Korean companies, however. In April, Hyundai Heavy Industries, betterknown for shipbuilding, struck a deal to purchase a majority stake in Russia's Khorol Zerno LLC, whichowns a 10,000 hectare farm in the far east of Russia. Similar projects are also on the horizon in Indonesia.Korea's massive import requirements for grain and shortage of agricultural land mean that buying landabroad may seem like a good solution to guarantee food security. However, with land rights such anemotive issue, large foreign holdings in poor and oft unstable countries will always be an easy target forpoliticians hoping to score points among the rural poor. This will make any large investment inherentlyrisky especially at times of high food prices when sensitivity surrounding the issue is heightened.

With Korean agriculture already propped up heavily with subsidies, there is little chance of dramaticincreases in production at home. So despite the risks and the Madagascan setback, the scramble for landwill continue. In April, the agriculture ministry gave its official blessing to companies seeking to invest infarmland abroad and raised the prospect of incentives such as cheap loans.

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