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Australia Agribusiness Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: May. 21, 2009 - 54 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Nigeria Agricultural SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
Market Overview
Key Outputs
Support
Supply Demand Analysis
Australia Sugar Outlook
Table: Australia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Australia Livestock Outlook
Table: Australia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Australia Grain Outlook
Table: Australia Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Australia Rice Outlook
Industry Forecast - Australia Rice Outlook
Table: Australia Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Australia Dairy Outlook
Table: Australia Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
Australia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Australia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Australia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Market Strategy - Grains Update
Corn
Table: Corn
Soybean
Table: Soybean
Rice
Table: Rice
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Market Strategy Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Australia Confectionery Value/Volume Sales (US$mn, unless otherwise stated -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Table: Australia Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Australia Food & Drink Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Table: Australia MGR Value Sales by Format (US$bn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) -- Historical Data And Forecasts
Economic Activity
Australia - Economic Activity
Company Finance Alert -
Parmalat Secures National Foods Fresh Milk Assets
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

In BMI's Australia Agribusiness Report for Q3 2009 we introduce the new Rice Outlook. Before theonset of the long drought in 2002, Australia was a significant rice exporter. Annual production of aroundone million tonnes in the late 1990s and first couple of years of this decade allowed the country to exportupwards of half a million tonnes of rice a year. Since 2002, however, apart from a brief spike up above1mn tonnes in 2006 when the weather seemed to be getting back to normal, output has been pitiful. In2008, production fell to a record low of 19,000 tonnes. This has transformed Australia into a net riceimporter.

While the next couple of years should see production creep back up, we doubt that Australia will return toregularly producing a large rice crop. Rice production in Australia is a thirsty business. Dwindlingirrigation water supplies in New South Wales, where the country's rice production is based, will likely seefarmers turn to less water-intensive crops. Though, if rice prices were to increase again as they did in2008, production could increase for short periods.

There are increasing worries that the devastation of rice production could be a sign of things to come aschanging weather patterns mean Australia, the world's driest continent, gets even drier. Following thelong drought, the system of irrigation that feeds large parts of Australian agriculture is at record lowlevels. The health of the Murray-Darling river system is also reaching critical levels.

Climate change has moved rapidly up the agenda since Labor prime minister Kevin Rudd came to powerat the end of 2007. While the majority of Australian farmers would agree that tackling climate change isin their best interest, there is increasing worries that the government's plans for a new emissions tradingscheme will seriously dent the competitiveness of Australian agricultural products.

The scheme is set to come into effect in 2010, but under the current plans agriculture will be excludeduntil 2015 at the earliest. If livestock farmers are indeed forced to pay for the carbon emitted by theiranimals, production costs would shoot up. Assuming that the majority of Australia's competitors do notinitiate their own schemes, the likelihood of which is very high, this would see the competitiveness ofAustralian products on the export markets hit hard. Even while agriculture is not included in the scheme,input costs will increase owing to higher prices for electricity, fuel and chemicals, according to a reportcited in The Australian.

While the concern in the agricultural sector is understandable, we do not believe that the Australiangovernment would unilaterally impose charges on the sector without other major producers followingsuit. A decision on whether to include agriculture in the emissions trading scheme is due to be made in2013. Unless other agricultural nations are by that time willing to make a similar commitment to reducingthe emissions of their farming sectors, it is highly unlikely that Australia's farmers will be made to pay upjust yet.

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