|
|
Ukraine Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 17, 2009 - 93 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw material needs.For the Q409 Ukraine Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughputand container volumes at the country's ports for 2009, taking into account, where available, the mostrecent monthly throughput data. Using one of Ukraine's main ports, the port of Odessa, as an example,BMI has revised its 2009 throughput forecasts for this port. We believe that for the whole of 2009 theport's total tonnage throughput will fall by 17.95% y-o-y, with container throughput set to decline by61.69%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Ukrainian shipping sector.We predict that a gradual recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is basedupon the fact that our Country Risk Desk is forecasting Ukraine's total trade to increase by 7.38% in2010. Using the port of Odessa as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will growby 1.65%, while container volumes will increase by 21.86% in 2010. This estimate will see the port tohandling a total of 28.8mn tonnes and 267,125 TEUs in 2010. We have also calculated expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). For the country's main ports we predict average yearly changes in the total tonnage throughput andcontainer volumes for the period, enabling us to predict whether or not the ports will be able to reclaimtheir pre-downturn levels of tonnage throughput and to reverse port's 2009 container decline during ourforecast period. Ukraine's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Ukraine's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMIexpects Ukraine's imports to decline by 28.2% and its exports to fall by 25%. A gradual recovery isforecast to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 7.38%. Also in this report, BMI predictsaverage yearly change in the country's total trade over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of Russia, Germany, China, Poland,Turkey, Turkmenistan, Italy, Bulgaria and the US to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
|
|||
|
About MarketResearch.com
|
||||