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Turkey Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 19, 2009 - 88 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw-material needs.For the Q409 Turkey Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for General and Liquid BulkCargo tonnage throughput and container volumes at the country's ports for 2009, taking into account,where available, the most recent monthly throughput data. Using Turkey's main port of Ambarli as anexample, BMI has revised its 2009 throughput forecasts for this port. We now believe that for the wholeof 2009 the port's general and liquid bulk cargo tonnage throughput will fall by 30.76%, y-o-y, withcontainer throughput set to decline by 23.78%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Turkish shipping sector. Wepredict that a gradual recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is based upon thefact that our Country Risk Desk is forecasting Turkey's total trade to increase by 3.27% in 2010. Usingthe port of Ambarli as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput of general and liquid bulkcargoes at the port will grow by 5.62%, while container volumes will increase by 3.95% in 2010. Thisestimate will see the port handling a total of 2.96mn tonnes of general and liquid bulk cargoes and1.792mn TEUs in 2010. We have also calculated expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). For the country's main port we have predicted average yearly changes in the general and liquidbulk cargo tonnage throughput and container volumes, allowing us to predict whether or not the port willreclaim its pre-downturn level of tonnage throughput and reverse the port's 2009 container decline duringour forecast period. Turkey's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Turkey's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMIexpects Turkey's imports to decline by 9.5%, and its exports to fall by 5%. A gradual recovery is forecastto begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 3.27%. BMI predicts average yearly change in thecountry's total trade over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of Germany, Russia, Italy, China, the US,the UK, the United Arab Emirates and France to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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