|
|
Russia Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 13, 2009 - 93 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw material needs.For the Q409 Russia Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughputand container volumes at the country's ports for 2009, taking into account, where available, the mostrecent monthly throughput data. Although the total amount of cargo handled by Russian ports was on therise in the first half of the year (+6%, y-o-y), both tonnage and container throughput at the country's maincontainer port, the Port of St. Petersburg, demonstrated steep declines. Unsurprisingly, the launch ofcontainer facilities at the nearby port of Ust-Luga was indefinitely delayed. BMI has revised its 2009throughput forecasts for the port of St. Petersburg down. We believe that for the whole of 2009 the port'stotal tonnage throughput will fall by 24.58%, y-o-y, with container throughput set to decline by 39.72%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Russian shipping sector. Wepredict that a gradual recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is based upon thefact that our Country Risk Desk is forecasting Russia's total trade to increase by 5.96% in 2010. Using theport of St. Petersburg as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will grow by2.04%, while container volumes will increase by 3.6% in 2010. This estimate will see the port handling atotal of 46.1mn tonnes and 1.238mn TEUs in 2010. We expect growth in throughput volumes to continue at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). According to BMI's Shipping Desk forecasts for the port of St. Petersburg, we predict that total tonnagethroughput will increase on average by 3.5% per year, with container volumes increasing by a yearlyaverage of 7.1%. This growth, however, will not enable the port of St. Petersburg to reclaim its predownturnlevels of both tonnage and container throughputs during our forecast period. Russia's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Russia's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMIexpects Russia's imports to decline by 33.75%, and its exports to fall by 37.46%. A gradual recovery isforecast to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 5.96%. BMI predicts that over the rest ofthe mid term (2011-2013) the country's total trade will increase by a yearly average of 5.4%. This trade recovery will see the country's import and export worth increase to US$355.8bn andUS$501bn, respectively, by 2013. BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners ofGermany, the Netherlands, Ukraine, Italy, China, Turkey, Japan, and the US to change dramatically overthe mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
|
|||
|
About MarketResearch.com
|
||||