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Romania Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 9, 2009 - 88 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw material needs.For the Q409 Romania Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughputand container volumes at the country's ports for 2009, taking into account, where available, the mostrecent monthly throughput data. As a result, BMI is sticking with its predictions for the throughput ofRomania's main port of Constantza. We believe that for the whole of 2009 the port's total tonnagethroughput will fall by 8.87%, y-o-y, with container throughput set to decline by 20.07%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Romanian shipping sector. We predict that a gradual recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is basedupon the fact that our Country Risk Desk is forecasting Romania's total trade to increase by 2.73% in2010. Using the port of Constantza as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port willgrow by 2.31%, while container volumes will increase by 7.12% in 2010. This estimate will see the porthandling a total of 57.7mn tonnes and 1.182mn TEUs in 2010. We expect growth in throughput volumes to continue at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). According to BMI's Shipping Desk forecasts for the port of Constantza, we predict that total tonnagethroughput will increase on average by 3.4% per year, with container volumes increasing by a yearlyaverage of 9.5%. This growth will enable the port of Constantza to reclaim its pre-downturn levels oftonnage throughput in 2013, while the port's 2009 container decline will be fully reversed by 2012. Romania's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Romania's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMIexpects Romania's imports to decline by 11% and its exports to fall by 13.5%. A gradual recovery isforecast to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 2.7%. BMI predicts that over the rest of themid term (2011-2013) the country's total trade will increase by a yearly average of 4%. This trade recovery will see the country's import and export worth increase to US$80.9bn and US$61.2bnrespectively by 2013. BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of Germany, Italy,Hungary, France, Russia and Turkey to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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